Check out Damien Kayat’s comprehensive outright preview of the 2024 Men’s Australian Open. Will Novak Djokovic lift the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup for the 11th time?
2024 ATP Tour
112th Australian Open
Men’s Preview
Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia
14h- 28th January
It’s that time again, when tennis scribes around the world try to bluff themselves that Novak Djokovic isn’t going to win the upcoming Slam. I say this partly in jest because I have been slightly guilty of this in the past.
Bored of his seemingly inevitable domination, I have been quick to pounce on any shred of evidence that supports another candidate. And the emergence of Carlos Alcaraz over the past 18 months has probably helped create that illusion.
But let’s be real: Novak Djokovic is the man to beat this year. And don’t let any possible injury fool you. Novak always seems to be battling some affliction that magically disappears when play gets underway in a Slam.
It sometimes feels that it’s part of his Machiavellian strategy, lulling would-be Grand Slam challengers into a false sense of security. The Serbian will be aiming to pass Margaret Court’s all-time haul of 24 Slams this week and it would take a bold man to bet against him doing just that.
But let’s take a more forensic look at the draw and see what awaits all the top contenders. Before we do that, however, check out Djokovic have a hit out with Aussie middle-order batsman Steve Smith below:
Game respects game!
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 11, 2024
(And Novak is just like the rest of us when it comes to Smudge...)@stevesmith49 • @DjokerNole • #AusOpen • #AO2024 pic.twitter.com/ioL8hjVSrF
Past Winners
The few bullet points below highlight just how dominant the Serb has been Down Under over the last few years. Keep in mind that he didn’t participate in 2022 after being deported from Australia for not being vaccinated against COVID-19.
- 2023: Novak Djokovic bt Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-3, 7-6, 7-6)
- 2022: Rafael Nadal bt Daniil Medvedev (2-6, 6-7, 6-4, 6-4, 7-5)
- 2021: Novak Djokovic bt Daniil Medvedev (7-5, 6-2, 6-2)
- 2020: Novak Djokovic bt Dominic Thiem (6-4, 4-6, 2-6, 6-3, 6-4)
- 2019: Novak Djokovic bt Rafael Nadal (6-3, 6-2, 6-3)
First Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic (1) vs Stefanos Tsitsipas (7)
Dark Horse: Taylor Fritz (16)
Unseeded Longshot: Marin Cilic
Novak Djokovic won his 10th Aussie Open title last year and he will be the overwhelming favoruite to make it an 11th Melbourne crown (I’m not getting sucked up into the injury red herring). This is an Olympic year and Djokovic is not going to be short of motivation.
And you have to say that his quarter of the draw is looking quite open. His projected quarterfinal opponent is Stefanos Tsitspas-the man he soundly beat in last year’s final. I don’t want to get too telenovela here, but I have certainly noticed a marked dip in Tsitsipas’ form since he started dating Paula Badosa. Perhaps he has been a bit distracted over the last 12 months or so?
Taylor Fritz (12) is the highest other seed in this quarter of the draw and he is projected to face Tsitsipas in the fourth round. That’s the only reason that I have opted for him as my dark horse pick. Fritz has the type of explosive game that can dispatch of Tsitsipas.
But I still think that Ben Shelton has a much higher ceiling going forward. The problem is this: Shelton is projected to face Djokovic in the 4th round. I kind of wish that Shelton and Fritz were switched around and I could confidently predict Shelton to beat Tsitsipas. But as it stands, I think I’m going to opt for the quarterfinal rematch of last year’s final (Djokovic vs Tsitsipas).
Marin Cilic is a bit of a dangerous lurker. The Croatian missed much of 2023 due to a knee injury but he certainly has Grand Slam pedigree in his veins. He won the 2014 US Open and reached the final of this event in 2018. He also defied expectations with a semi-final run at the 2022 French Open.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Second Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner (4) vs Andrey Rublev (5)
Dark Horse: Alex de Minaur (10)
Unseeded Longshot: Christopher Eubanks
Jannik Sinner is really the vogue option going into this year’s Aussie Open. A quarterfinalist here in 2022, the Italian made huge strides last year and looks set to be a dominant force in the game for years to come. He reached his first Grand Slam semi-final at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
He also ended the year as arguably the world’s hottest player, winning titles in Beijing and Vienna before a run to the Championship match of the ATP Finals. He also helped guide Italy to the Davis Cup title (which included a victory over Novak Djokovic). He has bulked up and he looks ready for a year of real Grand Slam contention. I think he will ease through to the quarterfinals here.
Andrey Rublev just won a title in Auckland but don’t let that fool you. He has now lost nine consecutive Aussie Open quarterfinals and I just don’t see him taking down a soaring Sinner. In fact, I think Rublev may struggle against a reinvigorated Alex de Minaur.
The Aussie- affectionately known as ‘Speed Demon- has reached the fourth round of this event for the last two seasons. And he comes into this event in brilliant form, beating Djokovic in the United Cup before an exhibition victory over Carlos Alcaraz. De Minaur reached the final of last year’s Canadian Open and he is just playing much more aggressive tennis of late.
In actual fact, I think that Rublev could have some problems in his second-round match against the enigmatic talent that is Christopher Eubanks. The American is the type of all-or-nothing hitter who could surprise people this year (just look at his Wimbledon quarterfinal run last year).
Predicted Quarterfinal: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur
Third Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev (3) vs Holger Rune (8)
Dark Horse: Hubert Hurkacz (13)
Unseeded Longshot: Denis Shapovalov
I saw someone blithely refer to Djokovic, Alcaraz and Sinner as the new ‘Big Three’. I just thought to myself: that’s a little disrespectful to Daniil Medvedev. Sinner is yet to reach a Grand Slam final while Medvedev has reached five (winning the 2021 US Open). And Medvedev is fresh off a runner-up finish at last year’s US Open (not to mention the fact that he was a beaten finalist here in 2021 and 2022).
He probably still carries a bit of scar tissue from that capitulation against Nadal in 2022. But he showed renewed mental toughness last year, winning two Masters 1000 titles and I can easily see the Russian going the distance this year.
Despite reaching the final in Brisbane last week, I still don’t think that Holger Rune is really ready for a Grand Slam charge. He seems to have found some more confidence since teaming with coach Boris Becker but I still think there’s too much inconsistency in his game.
I actually think Hubert Hurkacz could be one to watch in this quarter. The Pole enjoyed the latter portion of last season, reaching the semi-finals in Cincinnati before a stunning victory at the Shanghai Masters. He also made it to the Vienna final before a quarterfinal run in Paris. Hurkacz reached the Wimbledon semifinal in 2021 and I just love how his game is trending.
I know people are hot on Grigor Dimitrov after his Brisbane victory and renewed form towards the end of last year. But he is in Medvedev’s section and I don’t see the Bulgarian overcoming the Russian in five sets. Also, keep an eye out for Denis Shapovalov. The Canadian was hampered by injuries last year but he does possess that inalienable ability to suddenly find form out of nowhere.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Daniil Medvedev vs Hubert Hurkacz
Fourth Quarter
Seeded Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz (2) vs Alex Zverev (6)
Dark Horse: Alexander Bublik (31)
Unseeded Longshot: Jack Draper
This looks set to be a massive year for World No.2 Carlos Alcaraz. Already a two-time Grand Slam champion, you get the sense that the Spaniard was left somewhat unfulfilled after failing to usurp 36-year-old Djokovic last year. Sure, he did manage to beat Djokovic in the Wimbledon final. But the Serb won the other three Slams as well as the ATP Finals. If you come at the King, you better not miss.
Now he has Jannik Sinner bearing down on him as the successor to the Djokovic crown. Alcaraz hasn’t played too much tennis of late and I think that will benefit him. Also, he has a pretty favourable draw, avoiding both Djokovic and Sinner until a potential final showdown.
Alex Zverev could be one to really watch this year. He just helped guide Germany to a United Cup triumph and he has the type of powerhouse game that can go far in Melbourne. Zverev reached the semi-final here in 2020 and he showed glimpses of his best form in the latter half of last year. He reached the semi-finals of the French Open and the quarterfinals of the US. I really think he could pose a threat to Alcaraz in this quarter (a feeling backed up by the fact that Zverev beat the Spaniard when they last met at the ATP Finals).
As I said, the rest of the quarter is pretty uninspiring. Casper Rudd has never gone beyond the fourth round here while both Tommy Paul and Cameron Norrie are unconvincing. Alexander Bublik is the type of mercurial talent who could cause an upset or two. I’m much more inclined to lean towards Jack Draper as a longshot threat. The Brit is about to participate in an Adelaide semi-final and he just seems to have unlimited potential.
He was devastated by injury for most of last season but he did manage to reach the fourth round of the US Open. I just get the feeling that Draper- not Norrie- represents Britain’s best chance of having a male Grand Slam champion in foreseeable future. He pushed Rafael Nadal to four sets here last year and he could go as deep as the 4th round this time around.
Predicted Quarterfinal: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex Zverev
Road To The Final
A bit of fun now. I’ll try and plot the road to the final from the quarters and through the semis. No guessing who I think will triumph in Melbourne this year.
Quarter-final Predictions
Novak Djokovic to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas
Jannk Sinner to beat Alex de Minaur
Daniil Medvedev to beat Hubert Hurkacz
Carlos Alcaraz to beat Alex Zverev
Semi-final Predictions
Novak Djokovic to beat Jannik Sinner
Daniil Medvedev to beat Carlos Alcaraz
Final
Novak Djokovic to beat Daniil Medvedev
