Damien Kayat previews Novak Djokovic vs Jannik Sinner and Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Holger Rune in second (Green) Group matches of the Nitto ATP Finals on the 13th of November 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Nitto ATP Finals
Pala Alpitour, Turin, Italy
Green Group 2nd Matches – 14th November
Novak Djokovic 54/100 | Jannik Sinner 14/10
Novak Djokovic’s epic three-set victory over Holger Rune has ensured that he will end the season as World No.1 for a record-extending 8th time. It also means that he will register his 400th week atop the ATP rankings (incredible).
And all of this despite a pretty erratic showing against bogeyman Holger Rune. The Serb couldn’t really find any fluidity on serve and he hit an uncharacteristic amount of unforced errors. The Dane controlled proceedings in the first-set, dominating with his powerful serve and consistently troubling the Djokovic delivery.
But Djokovic hung in there and saved his best set for the tiebreak, extending his amazing 2023 tiebreak record to 29-6. Rune pegged that record back to 29-7 with a comprehensive tiebreak victory of his own in the 2nd.
But Djokovic just showed his trademark durability in the 3rd, coming right when it mattered to secure his 6th consecutive ATP Finals victory. The defending champion is now on a 19-match winning streak and he won’t be fearing anybody this week.
Jannik Sinner sent the home crowds into rapture yesterday, comfortably seeing off 2019 ATP Finals champ Stefanos Tsitsipas in his opener. The Greek came into this match under a slight injury cloud and Sinner showed little mercy, firing nine aces and dropping just ten points on serve in the entire match.
Sinner’s serve has become a formidable weapon this season and it seems perfectly suited to the pace of these courts. Sinner played in this event as an alternate in 2021 but this year marks the first time he has qualified for the event proper.
He has enjoyed a ridiculous campaign, winning four titles and reaching a maiden Grand Slam semi-final at Wimbledon. He won his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto and the Tsitsipas victory takes him to 14-1 in completed matches since the end of the US Open.
Sinner has quite possibly replaced Alcaraz as the chief threat to Djokovic this week and he will take some beating in front of this partisan crowd.
Verdict:
Djokovic has dominated this rivalry, winning all three of their previous matches. He actually broke the Italian’s heart by coming back from two sets down at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
He doubled down on that Wimbledon superiority with a comfortable victory in this year’s semi-finals. But this will be their first ever meeting on a hardcourt. And I think the breakneck speed of these courts is going to give Sinner a distinct opportunity.
He is hitting the ball crisply off both wings and his serve has looked impeccable. Djokovic looked shaky in his opener and he may take the foot off the pedal having already ended the season World No.1.
Stefanos Tsitsipas 13/10 | Holger Rune 58/100
Tsitsipas was always going to struggle in this year’s event- injury or not. The Greek’s opening defeat to Sinner took his 2023 record to a respectable 51-23. But look a bit deeper.
He has now gone 1-7 in his matches against top-ten players this season. The only tournament that he won was the ATP 250 event in Los Cabos. He has struggled in the aftermath of that heartbreaking Aussie Open final defeat and perhaps he has been a tiny bit distracted with certain off-court developments.
In any event, the Greek has also struggled in this event of late. He hasn’t got out of the group stage of these finals since winning the title at the O2 Arena in 2019. His backhand is a weakness and that is further exposed by the sheer speed of this surface.
He was a tad unfortunate to run into a megawatt serving performance from Jannik Sinner. He amusingly said that he wasn’t ‘Elastic Girl’ and couldn’t really do much in the face of that serving display.
Holger Rune gave about as good of an account of himself as he possibly could in his marathon opener against Novak Djokovic. There’s certainly something about Rune that gets under the GOAT’s skin (Rune has beaten Djokovic twice and has always managed to take a set off the Serb).
But Rune just lost his focus in some of the swing moments and he finally succumbed to the inevitable. Still, Rune will take great solace in that performance after what has been a very difficult 2nd half of the season. A back injury hampered him after Wimbledon and he has now only won six of 16 matches since SW19.
But he did manage to salvage some desperate late-season results to hold off a marauding Hubert Hurkacz in the ATP Finals battle. He reached the semis in Basel and he was extremely competitive against Djokovic in Paris.
The addition of Boris Becker to his coaching team seems to have galvanized the youngster and you can see him finally playing with the confidence that saw him capture last year’s Paris Masters title.
Verdict: Rune to win in straight-sets – 3/1
Rune won both of their previous meetings last year and I just think he has all the momentum at present. The Greek doesn’t look comfortable on these quick surfaces and Rune played nigh on a perfect match against Djokovic.
He served superbly in that match and his volleying was also excellent. His aggressive brand of in-your-face tennis could prove too much for the Greek to handle on this surface.
