Damien Kayat previews Jannik Sinner taking on Holger Rune in a crucial Green Group Match of the ATP Finals, on the 16th of November 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP Finals
Pala Alpitour, Turin, Italy (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Green Group Match – 16th November
The Green Group in this year’s ATP Finals was thrown into a state of disarray this week, with Stefanos Tsitsipas withdrawing midway from the tournament due to a lingering back issue. First-alternate Hubert Hurkacz has been drafted in to make up the numbers and he will essentially take the Greek’s spot in the group.
But things descended into farce as Taylor Fritz was drafted in to play an exhibition set against the Pole. It was a desperate attempt to assuage the expectant Italian crowd but it ended with a chorus of boos, as Fritz was forced to take treatment due to an abdominal strain that forced him out of the recent Paris Masters.
It was a rather absurd sequence of events that has certainly left a slightly sour taste in the mouth. Be that as it may, everything is still up for grabs in this crucial Green Group encounter.
Jannik Sinner 29/100 | Holger Rune 5/2
Home favourite Jannik Sinner once again underlined his status as the current ‘it boy’ of men’s tennis, taking down top seed Novak Djokovic in his 2nd group match to put him on the cusp of semi-final qualification.
Sinner was simply awe-inspiring against the Serb, raining down 37 winners in an ominous portent of things to come. His array of delicate crosscourt parting shots was a joy to behold. It was a significant victory, in that Sinner joined Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz to become just the 3rd man under the age of 23 to win a 3rd set tiebreak against iron-man Novak Djokovic.
That stat speaks volumes to his growing maturity and limitless potential. That victory also means he is just one win away from reaching an incredible 60 wins in what has been a career-making season for the Italian wunderkind.
The stars just feel like they are aligning for the Italian this week. He is playing in front of fanatical home support and these lightning-quick surfaces just play perfectly into his big-serving wheelhouse.
Dane Holger Rune till retains an outside chance of semi-finals qualification despite the fact that he hasn’t technically won this week. The controversial withdrawal of Stefanos Tsitsipas means that he actually records a straight-sets victory in that match (which is a rule that may need reexamination in my opinion).
Rune was also valiant in defeat against Djokovic and he won’t be ruling out his chances of pulling off an upset win against the effervescent Sinner. Having said that, he will also be relying on alternate Hubert Hurcazk to spring an incredible upset over Djokovic in the other group match.
I think the Dane will be looking to make a point regardless of the overall makeup of the group. Alongside Alcaraz and Sinner, Rune stands at the vanguard of this new wave of incredible tennis talent and a win here will certainly be a massive statement going forward.
Verdict: Sinner to win in straight-sets at 81/100
Rune actually leads their head-to-head 2-0, winning their last encounter in three sets at this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters. But this current incarnation of Sinner is an entirely different proposition.
Just look at both these player’s respective matches against Djokovic. Djokovic was poor against Rune but still managed to prevail in the critical moments. The Serb looked far more assured against the Italian but it was Sinner who had more to offer in the key stages of the match.
Sinner doesn’t seem overawed by the big occasion and his rapidly improving serve allows him to still keep the scoreboard ticking over when he goes through lulls (like Federer). I think Rune’s propensity to come to the net is also going to be challenged by the sheer breath of Sinner’s passing ability. It’s hard to see anything other than a comfortable Sinner win.
