Damien Kayat previews Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton and Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Dominic Thiem in selected Round of 32 matches of the Erste Bank Open on the 24th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Erste Bank Open
Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna, Austria (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 24th October
Jannik Sinner 23/100 | Ben Shelton 31/10
This encounter between two of tennis’ hottest young stars has future Grand Slam final written all over it. This has been a wonderful career-best season for Italian Jannik Sinner. He has won a stunning 51 matches this campaign, becoming the 4th person to qualify for the season-ending ATP Finals in Shanghai.
Sinner started the season in fine form, winning in Montpellier before runner-up finishes in Rotterdam and Miami. He went on to reach his maiden Grand Slam semifinal at Wimbledon before claiming his first Masters 1000 title in Toronto. He won his 3rd title of the year in China (defeating Daniil Medvedev in the final).
Sinner took a break after securing his ATP Finals qualification and he should be feeling nice and refreshed this week. The Italian’s improved physicality is really at the core of his evolution this year. His frame- once lanky and prone to wilt- is now muscular and battle-hardened. He is serving at a top level and he looks ready to compete with Alcaraz for the foreseeable future.
Divisive American Ben Shelton is enjoying the most fruitful period of his admittedly short career. The former NCAA Division I Tennis Champion started the year in auspicious fashion, storming his way to the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open.
The big-serving firebrand looked like he was primed for a breakthrough campaign. But he struggled to string together back-to-back wins following that result. It took the year’s final slam- the US Open- for him to truly announce his arrival. Shelton drew power from that crazy New York crowd, besting his Aussie Open result with a remarkable Grand Slam finish.
He then went on to reach his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Shanghai. Still, Shelton was yet to reach an ATP final and some thought that his form could be a flash in the pan. They were proved wrong last week as the powerful lefty bulldozed his way to the Tokyo title. But how much gas will he have in the tank after this quick turnaround?
Verdict: Sinner to win in straight-sets at 71/100
This will be their 2nd meeting, with Shelton easing past the Italian in Shanghai a fortnight back. I think Sinner’s performance in Shanghai can be forgiven considering he had just assured his spot in the season-ending tournament. I think the Italian will exact sweet revenge on the American this week. He knows Shelton now and the American will probably be feeling a tiny bit jetlagged following his exertions in Tokyo.
Stefanos Tsitsipas 31/100 | Dominic Thiem 47/20
This has been a true ‘almost’ year for Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas. He started it in brilliant fashion, reaching his 2nd Grand Slam final in Melbourne. But his routine demolition at the hands of Djokovic knocked his confidence quite severely.
He underperformed in the ‘Sunshine Double’ and it wasn’t until the clay-court swing that he finally produced some of his best tennis. He reached a final in Barcelona and produced another steady quarterfinal run at Roland Garros. He stole defeat from the jaws of victory at SW19, surrendering a two-set lead against the explosive Eubanks in the round of 16.
He picked up his first title of the season in Los Cabos but that preceded a dreadful North American hardcourt campaign, culminating in a shock 2nd round exit to Stricker at the US open. The Greek consolidated his 6th place position in the Race to Turin standings with a positive semi-final run in Antwerp. A solid outing in Vienna will virtually assure him of a place in the season-ending finals.
Former World No.3 Dominic Thiem hasn’t had it easy on the comeback trail, winning 23 of his 50 matches this campaign. The Austrian has been absolutely eviscerated by injury over the past few seasons and it’s starting to look unlikely that we will ever see him approach the level that saw him reach four Gand Slam finals (including a triumph at the 2020 US Open).
But the 30-year-old did give us a glimpse of his former self on home soil, reaching his first final in three years at the Austrian Open. The German is coming off a pretty disheartening three-set defeat to Hanfmann at the European Open.
Thiem won this title in 2019- at the peak of his powers- and he will look to draw on some positive muscle memory as he looks to end this fragmented season on a positive note.
Verdict: Tsitsipas to win in three at 5/2
These two are currently locked at 5-5 in a fascinating head-to-head rivalry. Tsitsipas won their last meeting at Wimbledon this year but Thiem has won four of their six hardcourt encounters. Tsitsipas will look to dictate the tempo with his strong serve and crunching groundstrokes.
Thiem isn’t as destructive on his delivery and his movement has looked laboured of late. But I think he will pose a threat in these quick indoor conditions. Still, the Greek has far more to play for and he should get the job done in the end.
