Damien Kayat previews Ugo Humbert vs Dominic Thiem and Stan Wawrinka vs Luca Van Assche in Selected Round of 16 Matches of the Moselle Open on the 7th and 8th of November 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Moselle Open
Arenes de Metz, Metz, France (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches: 7th-8th November
7th November
Ugo Humbert 9/20 | Dominic Thiem 17/10
Ugo has strengthened his hold on the French No.1 spot with a classy late-season surge that has seen him break into the top 25 for the first time in his career. The big-serving lefty has reached the quarterfinal stage or better in six of his last ten tour-level events.
His renaissance started with back-to-back quarterfinal showings in Newport and Atlanta. But’s it’s been his form in the post-US Open hardcourt season that has really caught the eye. He reached the quarterfinal in Beijing, beating an in-form Rublev before succumbing to Medvedev in a tight three-set battle.
He then went into giant-killing mode again, taking down Stefanos Tsitsipas en route to a 2nd career Masters 1000 showing in Shanghai. He then lost to Hurkacz in a pulsating Basel semi-final before going down in three excruciating sets to Zverev in Paris.
Humbert has gone toe to toe with giants in recent weeks and he has looked completely comfortable doing it. He has found wonderful rhythm with his serve and his volleying has been sublime.
Former Metz finalist Dominic Thiem enjoyed a comfortable start to his week, brushing aside French lucky loser Matteo Martineau in a pretty straightforward win. The former World No.3 looked impressive on his own delivery, winning a healthy 80% of his first-serve points in the tussle.
Thiem has now won eight of his last nine tour-level first-round matches. The Austrian hasn’t won a title since his awesome 2020 US Open run but recent form does tend to indicate an upward trajectory. He reached his first final in three years on home soil in August and he is fresh off arguably his best individual performance of the campaign, seeing off Stan Wawrinka in heroic fashion in Paris.
Thiem was down a match-point on Wawrinka’s serve but he somehow managed to channel his peak 2019 form in the closing stages of the match, whipping in some sensational forehand winners to close out a breathtaking first-round match. There have been enough little signs of late that Thiem could be ready to rediscover something resembling his best form.
Verdict: Humbert to win in straight-sets at 12/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I have to admit I was tempted to back Thiem following that performance against Wawrinka in Paris. But I just couldn’t ignore Humbert’s recent results (particularly against the top players).
He has beaten both Rublev and Tsitsipas whilst pushing the likes of Medvedev and Zverev in thrillers. His awkward lefty serve should earn him plenty of cheap points and I can see him comfortably progressing.
8th November
Stan Wawrinka 81/100 | Luca Van Assche 97/100
Another former World No.3, Stan Wawrinka, enjoyed a routine first-round win at this year’s Moselle Open. The 8th seed absolutely obliterated Bernabe Zapata Miralles in 52 minutes and the Swiss will be looking to emulate his semi-final run in last year’s renewal.
Wawrinka will hope that this could be the catalyst for a strong week. His currently sits at a fairly respectable 27-22 for the season, reaching the final of the Croatia Open earlier this campaign.
But he came into this event in really tepid late-season form, winning jut two of eight matches coming into Metz. Currently ranked 51st in the world, Wawrinka will want a strong showing this week to cross that psychologically important top 50 threshold.
At just 19 years of age, Luca Van Assche certainly offers us a positive glimpse into the future of French tennis. The youngster has edged his way into the top 70 in the world rankings this year, earning a reptation for being one of the most durable young grinders out there.
He won two Challengers during the early portion of this season. His victory over Humbert in the Pau final ended up being the longest Challenger final in history. He then beat his upcoming rival at the Srpska Open, registering his maiden win against a top 100 player.
Van Assche recorded his first Grand Slam win at the French Open and he just overcame Botic van de Zandschulp in an absolute thriller, coming back from a set down to once again underline his Energizer Bunny credentials. He looked shaky on serve throughout but somehow managed to concede just two break-points in the entire encounter.
The Verdict: Van Assche to win in three
Van Assche obviously won when they met at this year’s Srpska Open and that’s good enough reason to back the upset option. Wawrinka is in the middle of a miserable rut of form and Van Assche’s youthful exuberance could be enough to get him over the line.
