Damien Kayat previews Lorenzo Sonego vs Fabio Fognini and Ugo Humbert vs Harold Mayot in Selected Quarterfinals of the Moselle Open on the 9th of November 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Moselle Open
Arenes de Metz, Metz, France (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals – 9th November
Lorenzo Sonego 31/100 | Fabio Fognini 47/20
28-year-old Lorenzo Sonego is one of the members of the recent Italian tennis revolution who hasn’t really lived up to his potential. He threatened to break into the top 20 in 2021, winning a title and reaching another final in a promising campaign.
Last season he enjoyed diminishing returns but he did manage to find success in this tournament, beating Alexander Bublik in the final to clinch his 3rd career title. But this season has been really substandard (he has only reached one semi-final for the entire year). Still, Sonego is an undeniably talented baseliner who tends to play his best tennis on indoor surfaces.
He reached the biggest final of his career in Vienna, losing to Andrey Rublev in the 2020 final. He hits the ball flatter than some of his contemporaries and he has excellent lateral movement. That combination makes him an excellent fit for these slick surfaces.
He overcame a tricky first-round fixture with Giron before a far more comfortable outing against Shelbayh. Could he overcome his recent poor form in this fascinating all-Italian affair?
Wow! Fabio Fognini’s round of 16 victory over Alexander Bublik must go down as one of the wildest matches of the year. 36-year-old wildcard Fognini came into this event in desperate form, not winning back-to-back tour-level matches since the French Open.
He squeaked past Seyboth Wild in his opener before running into enigmatic Kazakh star Bublik. And the match didn’t disappoint, with Fognini saving two match-points en route to victory. In fact, the mercurial Bublik even attempted one of his famed underarm serves whilst serving for the match!
Fognini took advantage of his opponent’s laissez-faire approach to reach his first tour-level quarterfinal of the entire campaign. Incredibly, the clay-court specialist hasn’t actually reached an ATP Final since winning the 2019 Monte-Carlo Masters!
He still seems capable of getting it together for individual matches but can his body withstand another protracted battle?
Verdict: Fognini to win in three – 26/10
I was quite surprised to discover that this will be the first meeting between these two compatriots. Sonego has enjoyed a pretty torrid season and I think this has upset written all over it.
Fognini was like a cockroach in that Bublik match and I think he will be freerolling here. Sonego wasn’t convincing against 19-year-old Shelbayh and I think he may struggle with Fognini’s range of off-speed shots and general unpredictably.
Ugo Humbert 2/11 | Harold Mayot 38/10
Current French No.1 Ugo Humbert is in the middle of a lovely little renaissance, reaching the quarterfinal stage for the 7th time in eleven tour-level events. The thing that has really impressed me has been his ability to go toe-to-toe with the big boys.
He beat Rublev in China and he took down Tsitsipas in Shanghai (where he reached just his 2nd career ATP 1000 quarterfinal). He has also suffered narrow defeats to the likes of Zverev and Hurkacz in recent weeks. His imposing lefty delivery has been operating at peak efficiency and he will be confident of reaching his first ATP final in two years.
He needed to overcome a spirited Dominic Thiem in his opener, relying on that wonderful serve to bail him out on several occasions. He served 11 aces against the Austrian, winning an incredible 84% of his first-serve points. He was lean on that heavily as the tournament progresses.
Humbert’s next opponent will be 21-year-old compatriot Harold Mayot. Mayot has long been touted as a future star of French tennis. He rose to prominence in the junior ranks, winning the Aussie Open boy’s title in 2020. His progress since then has been incremental rather than meteoric.
He has fought his way through the Challenger circuit and he is still looking to establish himself on the tour proper. Mayot has a strong all-round game, relying on a decent serve and powerful groundstrokes off both wings.
He reached a Challenger final in September and this week he has reached his maiden ATP Tour quarterfinal. He had to do it the hard way, coming through qualifying before back-to-back three-setters with Watanuki and Barrere.
Verdict: Humbert to win in straight-sets at 54/100
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I really don’t have much to say about this. Humbert is in excellent from and he is a much more high-calibre player than anything Mayot has had to face this week. Mayot will be overwhelmed by Humbert’s imposing serve and this could be over in no time.
