Damien Kayat previews Grigor Dimitrov vs Nicolas Jarry and Andrey Rublev vs Ugo Humbert in Selected Quarterfinals of the Shanghai Masters on the 13th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Masters 1000
Shanghai Masters
Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena, Shanghai, China (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals – 13th October
Grigor Dimitrov 43/100 | Nicolas Jarry 18/10
I never quite saw that one coming. I expected Dimitrov to be a tough nut for World No.2 Carlos Alcaraz (especially after his solid quarterfinal run in China last week). But I never really saw him having the composure to see the match out. Boy, was I wrong.
The Bulgarian really brought his A-game on Wednesday, hitting cleanly off both wings and using that backhand drop-shot to exceptional effect. Dimitrov won 73% of his points coming forward and he had a first-serve win rate of 89% in the final set.
Dimitrov has performed admirably in lower-tier events this year but this will be his first Masters 1000 quarterfinal of the season (and the 17th of his career). This Shanghai Masters has been one of the most chaotic and unpredictable elite events in recent memory and Dimitrov will truly be fancying his chances in this kind of form.
This has been a monumental season for 28-year-old Chilean Nicolas Jarry. The Chilean has really come from nowhere to produce his best campaign, standing on the precipice of breaking into the top 20 for the first time in his career.
Currently ranked 21st in the live rankings, Jarry has registered 36 tour-level wins this season. The avowed clay-court specialist won titles in Genva and Santiago (typical clay-court success for the towering Chilean). But he has also enjoyed career-best Grand Slam runs in every individual Slam. He has also broadened his success to non-clay events.
He upset Tsitsipas en route to a quarterfinal finish in Beijing last week. And he has now reached his maiden ATP 1000 quarterfinal with a workmanlike showing against diminutive Diego Schwartzman. Jarry overpowered the Argentine in a true David-and-Goliath encounter, hitting a staggering 44 winners to Schwartzman’s 17.
His renaissance has really been down to a far more aggressive approach. He is attacking behind his formidable serve and looking to stay away from overly convoluted rallies.
Verdict: Dimitrov to win in three at 51/20
Jarry actually holds a 2-0 head-to-head superiority against Dimitrov. This including a comfortable win against the Bulgarian in this year’s Geneva final. But that was on clay and Dimitrov will get far more purchase on these surfaces.
Dimitrov’s sliced backhands and drop-shots will also put pressure on the tall Chilean’s movement. Still, Jarry is playing more than well enough to make this an arduous encounter.
Andrey Rublev 42/100 | Ugo Humbert 18/10
Andrey Rublev now has a gilt-edged opportunity to add to his Monte-Carlo Masters title from earlier this year. The ever-consistent baseliner must be wondering how on earth he is the highest ranked player in this year’s Shanghai Masters quarterfinals (by a stunning 11 ranking positions).
Rublev will clearly feel frustrated with the fact that he is such an incredible Grand Slam underachiever. He never had the greatest preparation for this event, going out during the early stages of the China Open.
Still, his composed round of 16 win against Tommy Paul took him to an impressive 47 wins for the season. He has looked very much at home on these notoriously quick Shanghai surfaces. He is able to linger on the baseline and just dominate with his incessant bombs from either wing.
This has been a pretty humdrum campaign for current French No.1 Ugo Humbert. The tricky lefty hasn’t reached an ATP final since 2021 but he has managed a bit of a late-season surge during this Chinese swing.
He was impressive in Beijing last time out, beating Sonego and (interestingly) Rublev before taking a set off Medvedev in the quarterfinals. And this week has seen him bring more of the same energy. He battled past Botic van de Zandschulp in his opener before a really bruising three-set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas. That victory over the Greek took his record against top-ten players to an impressive 9-9.
He seems to play well against the top players but he often fizzles out against guys he should beat. So, he will be impressed with the way he downed J.J. Wolff in his round of 16 match. The Frenchman served beautifully, not facing one break point in the match to reach his 2nd career ATP 1000 quarterfinal (his first coming at the 2020 Paris Masters).
Verdict: Humbert to win in three – 26/10
These two actually share the head-to-head spoils at 2-2. As I noted earlier, Humbert actually overcame the Russian in last week’s China Open. I really think there’s enough value here to opt for the Humbert win. He has a solid record against the Russian and his tendency to come to the net could once again destabilize Rublev.
