Damien Kayat previews Adrian Mannarino vs Sebastian Ofner and Marton Fucsovics vs Pavel Kotov in Selected Quarterfinals of the Sofia Open on the 9th of November 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Sofia Open
Arena Sofia, Sofia, Bulgaria (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals – 9th November
Adrian Mannarino 41/100 | Sebastian Ofner 37/20
Currently ranked 25th in the world rankings, Adrian Mannarino will need a strong showing in Sofia if he has any chance of displacing Ugo Humbert- currently in the Metz quarterfinals- as French No.1. The crafty lefty actually came into this event on a three-match losing streak.
But don’t let that fool you: this has been a wonderful season for the throwback lefty. He showed his class in Miami, making it to the round of 16 in a portent of things to come. He then reached grass-court finals in Mallorca and Newport (losing the former and winning the latter).
He then secured his 2nd career Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Cincinnati, beating the likes of Gasquet and Auger-Aliassime in the process. He showed off his commendable indoor skills with another championship run in Astana.
Mannarino knows how to get the most out of his slight frame and looked very compact in his opener, taking down Ramos-Vinolas in straight-sets. Mannarino is an exceptional counter-puncher and brilliant opportunist (he currently leads the tour in break-point conversion).
27-year-old Austrian Sebastian Ofner came to the attention of the tennis world with a 3rd round run at the 2017 Wimbledon Championships. But he was unable to really build on that notable result and he has wallowed in the tennis doldrums for the last five seasons.
But this has proven to be something of a watershed season for the Austrian. He was remarkably consistent on the Challenger circuit, losing five consecutive finals before winning on home soil in Salzburg. He then gatecrashed the top 100 with a highly creditable 4th round run at the French Open.
His recent semi-final run at the Astana Open has particular relevance to this event. Ofner saw off the likes of Bublik and Thiem before succumbing to a certain French lefty in the semis.
Yes, Ofner was thoroughly outplayed by Mannarino in the semi-finals and he will need to show some real bouncbackability to outdo the Frenchman. He has been in full grinding mode this week, needing three sets to overcome both Sachko and Ofner.
Verdict: Mannarino to win in three sets at 26/10
Mannarino’s Astana Open victory over Ofner was their only meeting until now. These Sofia indoor surfaces should provide a similar test to Astana but I expect the Austrian to put up a much better fight on this occasion.
He has a strong first-serve and that could give him some momentum in the early stages. But Mannarino is an exceptional counterpuncher who will ultimately get to grips with conditions. Also, the Frenchman has spent appreciatively less time on court and he should come good in the latter stages of the match.
Marton Fucsovics 49/100 vs Pavel Kotov 16/10
Hungarian Marton Fucsovuics has to be one of the great underperforming talents in the men’s game. In 2021 he looked primed to be one of the premier players on the tour, reaching a maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at Wimbledon and reaching his first ATP 500 final in Rotterdam.
But his form has pretty much plateaued since then. On the surface he appears to have everything: a strong serve, brilliant athleticism and powerful groundstrokes. But he has always suffered with the mental side of his game and his obsession with becoming the most ripped man in tennis has negatively impacted his overall performance.
He has had some sporadic success this year (reaching the 4th round at Indian Wells and the semi-finals of the Stuttgart Open). He has looked really solid this week, perhaps tapping into the nostalgic value of his run to the 2019 final. Can he overcome his nerves and finally reach another ATP final?
Sitting on the opposite end of the form spectrum, 24-year-old Pavel Kotov has suddenly become an intriguing dark horse pick. The durable Russian baseliner reached his maiden ATP Tour semi-final at this year’s Grand Prix Hassan II.
But he blew that performance out of the water in his last tournament outing, surviving a murderous draw to reach his maiden ATP final in Stockholm. He came through Stockholm qualifying before an epic first-round encounter with Christopher Eubanks. He then beat the trio of Sonego, Griekspoor and Kecmanovic to reach the championship match.
He took the first set off crowd favourite Monfils but the Frenchman rallied in typical fashion, eventually seeing off the Russian in one of the most entertaining finals of the year. Kotov started slowly this week, coming back from a set down against Lazarov in his first encounter.
He benefitted from a 3rd set walkover against Baez and he will be desperate to show that his performance in Stockholm was no fluke. He has a fearsome backhand that could neutralize Fucsovics’ powerful forehand.
Verdict: Kotov to win in three – 46/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Both of these players are supreme athletes who tend to counterpunch. That makes me think that a three-set match could be on the cards. Ultimately, I think Kotov has all the momentum at present.
He really shone in Stockholm and I think he will feel very relieved after finishing that Baez match a little early. I expect him to frustrate Fucsovics into plenty of errors with his variety.
