Holger Rune faces off against Dan Evans while Alexei Popyrin goes up against Thanasi Kokkinakis at the French Open. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected Ro128 Matches – 28 May 2024
Holger Rune 1/11 | Dan Evans 6/1
The drama of Holger Rune continues. I honestly think that the biggest obstacle for Holger Rune is Holger Rune. The infinitely talented Dane goes through coaches like underwear, often projecting his own shortcomings on whoever is in his way. Hopefully, this return to Paris will reinvigorate Rune after what has been a ‘nearly’ season.
Once spoken about in the same breath as Alcaraz and Sinner, Rune has only managed one ATP Tour final appearance this season (losing to Dimitrov in Brisbane). But it hasn’t been the horror show that some would have you believe: he has reached a further three semi-finals since that Brisbane final.
He has picked up some encouraging results on his favourite surface, reaching the semi-finals in Munich and the quarter-finals in Monte-Carlo. He pushed wunderkind Jannik Sinner to three sets in Monte-Carlo and he was just eliminated by Sebastian Baez in Rome.
A quarter-finalist in Paris for each of the last two seasons, Rune can match anyone on clay. He just needs to redirect his energy and control the things that he has power over.
The bad boy of British tennis, Dan Evans has absolutely nosedived this season. Evans comes into this event with a dreadful 3-12 record for the season. In fact, he has lost all five of his tour-level clay-court matches this season.
An avowed hardcourt specialist, Evans won the biggest title of his career last year, winning his maiden ATP 500 title in Washington. A counterpuncher by nature, Evans relies on his hustle and reading of the game to stay in points.
He really lacks the weapons to penetrate on clay and his flatter hitting style just doesn’t create enough variety. He will need to use that backhand slice effectively if he stands any chance against clay-court specialist Holger Rune.
The Verdict: Rune to win in four sets 23/10
This will be their first career meeting. Rune will obviously be the massive favourite here. He is a far superior clay-court player and Evans has absolutely no form to his name.
However, Evans could nick a set by virtue of this being their first meeting. Also, the Dane has a habit of imploding from time to time and he could easily tank a set here.
Alexei Popyrin 1/1 | Thanasi Kokkinakis 79/100
This looks set to be a fascinating antipodean clash. Alexei Popyrin plays a brand of first-strike tennis that makes his form oscillate wildly. He enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2023, reaching a maiden Masters 1000 quarter-final and winning his second career title (winning on the Umag clay).
He has picked up some more strong results this season, reaching the semi-finals in Qatar prior to a round of 16 run in Monte Carlo (where he accounted for defending champion Andrey Rublev). But his form has predictably tapered off since then and he enters this year’s French Open on a four-match losing streak.
He has been eliminated in the first round of this event for four years running but he will probably feel quite chuffed with this draw, as compatriot Thanasi Kokkinakis is one of the more unreliable enigmas in the men’s game.
28-year-old Aussie Thanasi Kokkinakis favours a similarly aggressive style to that of his compatriot, banking on a massive serve and big forehand to finish points quickly. It really isn’t a style that is suited to the vagaries of clay.
That being said, the former ATP Tour winner has enjoyed his best Grand Slam runs in Paris, twice reaching the third round (including last season). He hasn’t won a tour-level match since Indian Wells but he did pick up a morale-boosting Challenger clay-court title in Sarasota. He will need his first-serve percentage to prosper if he stands any chance of making a dent in this year’s championships.
The Verdict: Kokkinakis to win in four 7/2
This will be just their second tour-level meeting, with Kokkinakis winning in three sets when they met In Adelaide last season. And I think this match could end in similar fashion. Kokkinakis has the raw power to hit clean winners on these sluggish courts. He also has a deadly serve that can take the racquet out of his opponent’s hand.
