It’s really anybody’s game as the men’s clay-court season reaches its climax at the 2024 French Open. Damien Keyat has a look at at the top contenders, midtier choices and longshot options.
The men’s French Open has been a gift and curse to tennis scribes for the past 15 years or so (myself included). You had a nice basic backbone for your preview, talking about Nadal’s clay-court dominance, etc, etc. But you also had to try create the illusion of suspense despite everyone knowing what the end result would be. My, how things have changed.
2024 ATP Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
Men’s French Open Championships
Stade Roland Garros
26 May – 9 June
This will be the first Grand Slam in recent memory where the men’s preview is harder to write than the women’s. The men’s game is in perhaps its greatest period of flux in the last 20 years, with the death rattle of the ‘Big Three’ era giving way to exciting uncertainty.
That uncertainty has been exacerbated by the fact that the two would-be usurpers of Djokovic’s stranglehold on world tennis- Sinner and Alcaraz- enter this year’s tournament with lingering injury issues. I think this makes for one of the more exciting men’s Slams in recent memory.
But let’s pause for a moment and consider the achievements of Roland Garros demigod Rafa Nadal. At the risk of speaking hyperbolically, the 14-time French Open champion has arguably dominated this event more than any other sportsman- or woman- has dominated any other event in sporting history.
But this season is likely to be Nadal’s last dance and I would be surprised to see him progress beyond the fourth round this year. He has been decent on clay this year, compiling a 6-3 record leading into this event. But there is something mildly depressing about seeing Rafa operating under such obvious physical restraints, like seeing Muhammed Ali fighting way past his prime.
That may sound harsh considering Nadal won two Slams as recently as 2022. I just hope that Nadal goes down fighting (which I’m sure he will). If he does taste defeat this year, it would only be the fourth defeat in his entire French Open career! Insane.
Past Champions
- 2023: Novak Djokovic bt Casper Rudd (7-6, 6-3, 7-5)
- 2022: Rafa Nadal by Casper Rudd (6-3, 6-3, 6-0)
- 2021: Novak Djokovic bt Stefanos Tsitsipas (6-7, 2-6, 6-3, 6-2, 6-4)
- 2020: Rafa Nadal bt Novak Djokovic (6-0, 6-2, 7-5)
- 2019: Rafa Nadal bt Dominic Thiem (6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1)
- 2018: Rafa Nadal bt Dominic Thiem (6-4, 6-3, 6-2)
Clay-court precursors this season
- US Men’s Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton bt Frances Tiafoe (7-5, 4-6, 6-3)
- Estoril Open: Hubert Hurkacz bt Pedro Martinez (6-3, 6-4)
- Grand Prix Hassan II: Matteo Berrettini bt Roberto Carballes Baena (7-5, 6-2)
- Monte-Carlo Masters: Stefanos Tsitsipas bt Casper Rudd (6-1, 6-4)
- Barcelona Open: Casper Rudd bt Stefanos Tsitsipas (7-5, 6-3)
- Romanian Open: Marton Fucsovics bt Mariano Navone (6-4, 7-5)
- Bavarian International Tennis Championships: Jan Struff bt Taylor Fritz (7-5, 6-3)
- Madrid Open: Andrey Rublev bt Felix Auger Aliassime (4-6, 7-5, 7-5)
- Italian Open: Alex Zverev bt Nicolas Jarry (6-4, 7-5)
- Lyon Open and Geneva Open: in progress
The Big Three
This isn’t quite the big three of old, that’s for sure. Both Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are dealing with injury niggles while Novak Djokovic hasn’t quite been his imperious self of late. What odds would you have got on none of these three reaching a clay-court final during the European warm-up events?
Novak Djokovic
Defending champion and 24-time Grand Slam champion Novak Djokovic is at a real inflection point in his storied career. There have been times in the recent past where the Serb hasn’t quite looked himself leading into a Slam- only to win it comfortably.
The conspiratorial side of me has often wondered whether he deliberately underperforms in certain events to psychologically mess with his opponents. And this year could be the same but it just feels a little different. He is yet to reach a final all season.
And he was also the victim of a freak accident at the Italian Open, with a metal water bottle slipping out of someone’s backpack and smashing him in the head. He was then thoroughly outplayed by Tabilo in the next round. The fact that he is playing in Geneva this week tells you that he isn’t comfortable with his game at all.
Jannik Sinner
Jannik Sinner can become World No.1 at this year’s French Open without hitting a ball. If he were to withdraw due to that hip injury, Djokovic would need to reach the final in order to retain the World No.1 ranking.
Sinner has been the star of this year’s tour, compiling an incredible 28-3 record for the season. He won his maiden Grand Slam title at the Aussie Open and he also picked up titles in Rotterdam and Miami. He looked in decent clay-court nick prior to his quarter-final withdrawal from Madrid, reaching the semi-finals of the Monte-Carlo Masters.
But this is still Sinner’s least favourite surface (he only has one clay-court final to his name). Furthermore, he hasn’t gone beyond the fourth round of the French Open since a quarter-final run back in 2020. That, combined with his injury issues, makes him an unappealing option this year.
Carlos Alcaraz
I think that Carlos Alcaraz may represent the best hope among this bruised and battered top three. The two-time Grand Slam champion was beaten by Djokovic in last year’s semi-final and reports suggest that he should make a full recovery from his recent forearm issue.
Alcaraz has been overshadowed by Sinner this year but he has by no means been awful, picking up yet another ATP 1000 title at Indian Wells. He also reached the quarter-finals of the Aussie, Miami and Madrid Opens. The two-time Madrid Open champion is your prototypical modern player and his best will always give him a chance to win.
I think he may benefit from slightly lower expectations going into this year’s tournament. Still, I really think there’s an excellent chance that this year’s winner comes from somewhere outside the top three in the rankings.
My Top Ten Picks
Let me first dismiss a few of the top-ten prospects. Grigor Dimitrov has enjoyed a new lease on life of late but this just isn’t his tournament (or surface). He hasn’t gone beyond the fourth round here before and his form has been pretty ordinary since the tour reverted to clay.
Big-hitting Pole Hubert Hurkacz has looked solid on the clay, winning a title in Estoril and reaching the quarters in Rome. But he is still yet to convince at Grand Slam level (he has only reached two quarter-finals in his career). I think it would be a stretch to label him a contender on his least preferred surface (especially in five-set matches).
I am also willing to dismiss Andrey Rublev. I know, I know, the Russian picked up his second Masters 1000 clay-court title in Madrid. But I just can’t look past the psychological devastation of ten consecutive quarter-final defeats.
Next, I want to talk about two guys that I briefly considered. Daniil Medvedev has improved dramatically on clay in recent times but I still think it’s a step too far for him to contend this year. He is yet to win a title this season and he has had some fitness issues in recent weeks. But he does have that indefinable Grand Slam mettle and maybe this could be a breakthrough Slam for him. I doubt it, though.
This is a tough one, but I’m opting to swerve Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Greek is a bit of sentimental favourite in the aftermath of his breakup with Paula Badosa. He is also one of the best clay-court players in the world, winning this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters and finishing runner-up in Barcelona. I just don’t know about his ability in pressure-cooker situations. The former French Open runner-up has endured some pretty humbling Grand Slam defeats in recent seasons (he was routed by Alcaraz in the quarters last year). Also, he smashed his racquet for no apparent reason in Rome and I wonder if he’s mentally in the right frame of mind to compete.
I think that Alex Zverev and Casper Rudd are my personal picks to upset the apple-cart this year.
Alex Zverev
Say what you want about Alex Zverev’s off-court issues but you can’t deny his recent form. Xander Schauffele was long considered the best golfer in the world without a Major Championship. He changed that narrative at last week’s US PGA Championship and I think Zverev has the chance match that feat.
His serve propelled him to the Rome title last week and I really think he is primed for a title charge. He has reached the semi-finals here for the last three seasons and I think he could exploit the top three’s current fragility.
Two-time French Open runner-up Casper Rudd just knows what it takes to grind out results in Paris. The ice-cold Norwegian seldom betrays emotion, letting his strong serve and demonic forehand do the talking.
He is just a relentless baseliner and I think he has a chance of thriving in this year’s uncertain draw. He finished runner-up at this year’s Monte-Carlo Masters, before avenging that final defeat to Tsitispas with victory in the Barcelona final.
The Mid-tier Choices
I’m quite content with skipping the woefully out-of-form Holger Rune and hipster option Nicolas Jarry. I reckon that there are two guys from the middle of the pack who none of the top contenders would want to face until the latter parts of the tournament.
Taylor Fritz
Taylor Fritz and girlfriend Morgan Riddle bring some old-school American glamour to the game and I’m all for it. Fritz has enjoyed a true breakthrough season on the clay and he could be a threat to some of the big names later in the draw. He finished runner-up at the Bavarian International (his maiden ATP Tour clay-court final).
He then reached the semis in Madrid and the quarter-finals in Rome. The American has reached the quarter-finals in his last two majors and it would appear that he is learning how to navigate the tricky waters of Grand Slam tennis. He is serving superbly and moving much like a true clay-court specialist.
Karen Khachanov
I think that Karen Khachanov always represents great value in Grand Slam tournaments. He is a true ironman who loves five-set grudge matches. He has been in reasonably good clay-court form, compiling a 7-3 record this year. He won a title in Qatar this year and he had another decent fourth round run at the Aussie Open.
Khachanov relishes these Grand Slams, reaching back-to-back semi-finals at the 2022 US Open and 2023 Aussie Open. He also reached his second French Open quarter-final last season and he will exploit any weakness amongst the upper echelon players.
Longshot Options
Lastly, I’ll take a look at two guys – one inside the top 25 in the world and the other way down in the 90s – would could rock the boat a little bit.
Alejandro Tabilo
I know this is based on a bit of recency bias, but I think that Chilean lefty Alejandro Tabilo could pull off a few surprises this year. Tabilo thrived on the Challenger circuit last season but has made huge strides at tour level this year, winning a maiden title in Auckland before a runner-up finish in his own country.
But all of that paled in comparison to his exceptional semi-final run at last week’s Italian Open. He swatted Novak Djokovic aside with minimal fuss, serving brilliantly and using that booming forehand to dictate rallies. He took the first set off Zverev in their semi-final but ultimately succumbed to the German in three sets.
Tabilo has been a real success story, fighting weight issues in the early part of his career to become a dangerous dark horse in this year’s draw.
Matteo Berrettini
This is a bit of a shot in the dark, but Matteo Berrettini is definitely not someone that you want to run into while you are feeling your way into the tournament. The issue is this: will he be fit? The Italian pulled out of the Madrid pen due to an unspecified illness and he hasn’t been seen since. But I think he could cause a few surprises if he does compete.
He returned to action in March after a six-month hiatus, finishing runner-up at the Phoenix Challenge event. He would then go on to claim a clay-court title in Marrakech. A former Wimbledon runner-up, Berrettini is an accomplished Grand Slam operator, reaching the quarter-final or better in six slams (including a quarter-final run here back in 2021).
