Damien Kayat previews Flavio Cobolli vs ALexander Shevchenko at the Geneva Open and Alexander Bublik v Pavel Kotov at the Lyon Open.
2024 ATP Tour – ATP 250 Hybrid
Geneva Open/Lyon Open
Selected Quarter-finals – 23 May
Geneva Open
Tennis Club de Geneve
Flavio Cobolli 53/100 | Alexander Shevchenko 29/20
22-year-old Flavio Cobolli is slowly creeping up on that magical top-50 mark. The defensive baseliner has largely thrived on the Challenger circuit but he has finally started to gain some traction on the tour proper, earning 14 of his 20 tour-level wins this season.
He enjoyed an excellent Aussie Open, reaching the third round of a Slam for the first time in his career (which included a first top 20 win over Nicolas Jarry). This week also marks his third quarter-final run of the campaign (he reached this stage in Montpelier and at the Delray Beach Classic).
It marks his second ATP clay-court quarter-final appearance after a run to the final eight in Munich last year. And he has looked at his tenacious best this week, taking down Aslan Karatsev in straight sets before diffusing the insane power of Ben Shelton in three.
He has improved his serve dramatically in recent times and he will be hugely motivated to reach a maiden ATP Tour semi-final.
This has been a frustrating campaign for 23-year-old Alexander Shevchenko. He reached his first ATP Tour final towards the end of last season, losing to Ugo Humbert in the final of the Moselle Open. He was competing as a Russian at that stage but changed his nationality to Kazakh to start this year.
And he started this season in extremely encouraging fashion, reaching quarter-finals in Montpelier and Rotterdam. But the wheels have fallen off for the young Kazakh in recent months. He came into this event with a 5-11 post-Rotterdam record (including some qualifying and Challenger matches).
But he started this event in unexpectedly ebullient fashion, taking down seventh seed Fabian Marozsan in straight sets. Emil Ruusuvuori then withdrew from their round of 16 tie, catapulting the newly-minted Kazakh into his first quarter-final since Rotterdam. A crafty player, Shevchenko loves throwing in drop-shots and coming to the net to finish off points.
Verdict: Cobolli to win in three sets 28/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Shevchenko will be the fresher of the two players after receiving a bye into the quarter-finals. Still, Cobolli will feel battle-hardened after that gutsy win over Shelton.
He has looked extremely comfortable on the Geneva clay and I can see him edging the crafty Kazakh in three tight sets. He has looked defensively sound while Shevchenko has endured his struggles of late.
Lyon Open
Parc de la Tete d’Or
Alexander Bublik 23/20 | Pavel Kotov 66/100
Alexander Bublik is a fascinating figure in the men’s game. He doesn’t seem overly fussed about the game, often throwing in an underarm serve ala Nick Kyrgios. This has led to a somewhat schizophrenic career that lurches from high to low an instant.
This is a guy who has the capacity to lose seven straight matches and then win a tournament (like Ostapenko of old). But you can’t deny his ability to go deep in tournaments. Bublik has reached nine finals since the start of 2021, winning three titles in the past 11 months.
That included a maiden ATP 500 victory at last year’s Halle Open. He won in Montpellier earlier this season and finished runner-up to Humbert in Dubai. The big-serving, hard-hitting Kazakh has never been overly fond of clay.
But a fourth-round run at the recent Madrid Open suggested that he isn’t entirely bereft of ability on the sticky stuff. He just breezed past Vukic in his opener and he could do with a nice pick-me-up this week ahead of Roland Garros.
25-year-old Russian Pavel Kotov has been a surprise success story over the past 12 months or so. He reached his maiden ATP Tour semi-final in Marrakech last season (showing his clay-court nous). And he enjoyed a rollicking end to the campaign, reaching his first ATP Tour final in Stockholm prior to another semi-final run at the Sofia Open.
He picked up his first Grand Slam victory at this year’s Aussie Open but his season started to stagnate after that. The clay has come to his rescue, with his impressive straight-sets win over Alexandre Muller improving his 2024 clay-court record to 8-4 (including a second consecutive Marrakech semi-final run).
He is a solid baseliner with excellent movement and the ability to adapt well to new situations.
Verdict: Kotov to win in straight sets 31/20
This will be their first career meeting. This is really a clash of styles, with arch-baseliner Kotov coming up against the big-serving unpredictability of Bublik.
I think that Kotov’s workrate and movement should give him the edge on these surfaces. Bublik can get easily frustrated into errors and Kotov knows how to keep rallies churning over.
