The Japan Open round of 32 gets underway at the Ariake Coliseum Musashino Forest Sports Plaza in Tokyo on Wednesday after an exciting two days of qualifiers. Damien Kayat previews.
Ben Shelton (8) vs Reilly Opelka
This is not one for purists looking for some good old-fashioned rallies.
No, this is going to be a real serv-a-thon, and I personally find them quite agonizing to watch.
In any event, defending champion Ben Shelton will be looking for yet another strong finish to the season.
This has been a solid- if unspectacular- season for the big-serving American. The lefty reached the semifinals in Auckland and Dallas towards the start of his campaign.
He then won his second career title on the Houston clay. But he hasn’t really impressed on the Grand Slam circuit this season (his best result being a 4th round finish at SW19).
He did produce some more consistent tennis during the North American hardcourt swing, reaching the semifinals in Washington and the quarterfinals in Cincinnati.
He went down narrowly to Tiafoe in what turned out to be a marathon third-round match at the US Open.
But he did show some real quality at the recent Laver Cup, taking down Daniil Medvedev in three sets.
He rode his serve to victory here last here and it will be intriguing to see him on the receiving end of some bombs this week.
Reilly Opelka is a player in need of a solid week. The giant American serve-bot is still feeling his way back into tour life following surgeries to his wrist and hip.
He returned to action with a bit of bang, beating the likes of McDonald and Mannarino en route to a semifinal finish in Newport.
He would go on to receive main draw wildcards for both the Washington and Cincinnati Opens.
But he has certainly hit a bit of a snag in his comeback journey, losing his last five consecutive matches.
He was beaten by Yevseyev in Hangzhou qualifying last week and he will need to significantly up his performance to be competitive this week.
That being said, he did push 2024 breakout star Lorenzo Musetti to four sets in their US Open first-round meeting.
These Tokyo courts aren’t lightning quick but Opelka should still be able to dominate on serve. But can he create enough chances on Shelton’s delivery?
The Verdict: Shelton to win in straight sets at Shelton won their only previous encounter in straight sets, seeing off Opelka 7-6 (3), 7-6 (3) at this year’s Cincinnati Masters. I think you can probably bet on a few tiebreakers here. In fact, I think a 7-6, 7-6 win for Shelton is on the cards here. Both players serve like demons, but Shelton is the one with the guile to sneak some points against serve in a tiebreaker situation.
Frances Tiafoe (7) vs Brandon Nakahima
Seventh seed Frances Tiafoe has enjoyed a wonderful end to the season that has helped propel him back to a respectable 16th in the world rankings.
The ultra-athletic Tiafoe had a poor first half of the season that saw him plummet in the rankings.
But Tiafoe still managed to pick up some encouraging results in his home country, reaching the semifinals in Delray Beach and the final in Houston.
But the onset of the North American hardcourt season triggered something in Tiafoe.
He reached the semifinals in Washington before a rousing runner-up run in Cincinnati.
He then produced his greatest outing of the campaign, reaching a second career semifinal at the US Open (where he squandered a two-sets-to one lead against Fritz).
Tiafoe recently beat Medvedev in the Laver Cup and will feel confident of another strong week.
He will be desperate for a positive end to the season as he looks to crawl his way back into the top ten in the world rankings.
Brandon Nakashima is set to have a busy week. The American is scheduled to play Marin Cilic in today’s Hangzhou Open semifinals.
But a hectic schedule shouldn’t deter the indefatigable American baseliner.
This has turned into a bit of a breakthrough season for the American and he will be arriving in Japan in excellent form, regardless of what happens against Cilic in Hangzhou.
The 2022 San Diego champion struggled last year but has really come alive since the middle of this year’s campaign.
He reached the semifinals in Stuttgart and would go on to reach the third round at Wimbledon.
He produced back-to-back Masters 1000 round of 16 finishes in Montreal and Cincinnati, beating the likes of Tommy Paul and Taylor Fritz in the process.
He then produced some excellent tennis in New York, going out to Alex Zverev in four sets in the fourth round of the US Open.
He recently broke into the top 40 for the first time in his career and will present a formidable challenge to the mercurial Tiafoe.
The Verdict: Nakashima to win in three at – Tiafoe has dominated this head-to-head rivalry, bringing a sparkling 4-0 record into this meeting.
They last met in 2022, and Nakashima has pushed him to three sets in two of their encounters.
I really think that Nakashima has a chance of creating an upset here. His footwork and movement are elite and he will force Tiafoe into plenty of extended rallies. Tiafoe can grow impatient and tends to leak unforced errors when coming up against grinders like Nakashima.
