As the 2024 Open 13 enters the Round of 16, Damien Kayat previews Karen Khachanov vs Roberto Bautista Agut as well as first seed Hubert Hurkacz vs Alexander Shevchenko.
2024 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Open 13
Palais des sports de Marseille, Marseille, France
Selected Ro16 Matches
7 February 2024
Karen Khachanov 9/20 | Roberto Bautista Agut 17/10
This looks set to be a lung-busting clash between two archetypal baseline operators. 27-year-old Russian Karen Khachanov is one of the finest athletes on the entire ATP Tour. His durability has seen him reach two Grand Slam semi-finals- the last of which came at last year’s Aussie Open.
He followed that Aussie Open performance with a Masters semi-final run in Miami and a first title in five years at the Zhuhai Championships. The Russian once again flexed his Grand Slam muscle with a creditable fourth-round run at this year’s Aussie Open.
This will be his first outing since Melbourne and he should feel pretty comfy on these slick indoor surfaces: he won the title here back in 2018. His serve has really become a major weapon over the last few years and he should get plenty of purchase on these brisk surfaces. He really is a meat-and-potatoes type of player, using his big serve and dynamite forehand to play first-strike tennis.
35-year-old Spaniard Roberto Bautista Agut has been a consummate professional during his tenure on the ATP Tour. A counterpuncher by nature, you get the feeling that the energetic Bautista Agut may be coming close to the end of his impressive career.
Currently ranked outside the top 100 in the world, the Spaniard suffered through injury towards the end of last season. He started the campaign well enough, reaching a final in Adelaide before a fourth-round run at the Aussie Open.
But he quickly started to rack up first-round exits as the season dragged on (though he did reach the semi-finals in Halle). I just think that his body may be struggling to deliver the high-intensity defensive displays that have defined his career.
His opening victory over fellow veteran Richard Gasquet was his first win since a quarterfinal run in Hong Kong.
Verdict: Khachanov to win in three 26/10
Bautista Agut leads the head-to-head 6-3, winning all four of their hardcourt meetings. However, it was the Russian who emerged victorious when they last met at the 2023 Madrid Open.
I think Bautista Agut’s strong head-to-head record against Khachanov gives him a fighter’s chance here. He turns the Russian’s pace against him with his supreme counterpunching skills. But I don’t think the ageing Spaniard will be able to sustain that level of physicality throughout the match.
Hubert Hurkacz |23/100 Alexander Shevchenko 31/10
Defending Marseille champion Hubert Hurkacz will be making his first appearance since a heartbreaking five-set quarterfinal defeat to Medvedev at the Aussie Open. The Pole has become a real force on the Tour of late, winning his second Masters 1000 title at last year’s Shanghai Masters.
The Pole also showcased brilliant indoor form with a victory in this event and a run to the Basel final. It’s little wonder that the Pole is a handful in these quick indoor conditions.
He has one of the most powerful serves in the game and he doesn’t mind adopting a serve-and-volley approach. He moves deceptively well for a guy his size and he will be keen for a fast start this week.
23-year-old Kazakh Alexander Shevchenko could prove to be a tricky opponent for the Pole. Last year turned out to be a real breakthrough season for the young Kazakh player. He won two Challenger events in the early portion of the season but it was his late-season form on the European indoor courts that really caught the eye.
He reached the quarter-finals of the Astana Open as a wildcard, defeating home favourite Stan Wawrinka and Taylor Fritz in the process. He then backed that up with an even more impressive run in Metz, where he beat Karen Khachanov en route to a maiden ATP Tour final.
He once again showed off his indoor skills with a quarter-final run at last week’s Open Sud de France. He just saw off the enigmatic Benjamin Bonzi in straight sets, improving his indoor record to 9-4 in his last thirteen matches.
He has a solid serve and he moves brilliantly. He also doesn’t mind throwing in the odd cheeky drop-shot to catch his opponents off balance.
Verdict: Hurkacz to win in straight sets 69/100
This will be their second career meeting, with Hurkacz just edging out the Kazakh in Dubai last year. This is really a no-brainer. I couldn’t jazz this up or polish it in any way.
Hurkacz is one of the best indoor players in world tennis and he is going to win this pretty easily. Shevchenko is a real talent but he simply lacks the firepower of the Pole (especially on these surfaces).
