The ATP Tour’s Qatar Open continues on Wednesday with Ugo Humbert facing Paval Kotov and Alexander Bublik taking on Marton Fucsovics in the roun of 16. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour
ATP 250
Qatar ExxonMobil Open
Khalifa International Tennis and Squash Complex, Doha, Qatar
Selected Ro16 – 21st February
Ugo Humbert 31/100 | Pavel Kotov 24/10
Current French No.1 Ugo Humbert has been in the form of his life over recent months, propelling him to a current career-high ranking of 18. The big-serving lefty has battled inconsistency throughout his career. But he is currently 11-2 since the start of last year’s season-ending Moselle Open.
He won in Metz and would go on to pick up another title in Marseille this year. He has looked extremely impressive on indoor hardcourts of late. That was until he ran into an extremely motivated Emil Ruusuvuori in Rotterdam last week.
Those Rotterdam courts were slightly stodgy, preventing him from dominating on serve. And this week will offer similar challenges for the Frenchman. These surfaces are notoriously slow and he won’t get the same purchase on his delivery here. It may also prevent him from getting up to the net as much as he would like.
Still, Humbert is a deceptively good mover for someone his height and his lefty style will always present difficulties for more traditional right-handed opponents.
25-year-old Russian Pavel Kotov has been moving up nicely through the ranks over the last few years. He trudged his way through the Challenger circuit for a few years but 2023 proved to be a breakout campaign for the baseliner. He reached his maiden ATP semi-final on the Marrakesh clay-courts. He then made his first ATP Tour final in Stockholm, pushing Gael Monfils all the way in a thrilling three-set loss.
He rounded off an extremely impressive campaign with a semi-final run at the Sofia Open. And he has begun 2024 in pretty decent fashion. He reached yet another quarterfinal in Hong Kong before winning his maiden Grand Slam match in Melbourne.
He will be kicking himself that he threw away a two-set lead against Frenchman Rinderknech in the second round. He just breezed past Lorenzo Sonego in his opener, improving his 2024 record to 4-2. He has proven to be a canny operator who can adapt to all court conditions.
The Verdict: Humbert to win in three sets 6/1
Humbert won their only previous encounter at the 2024 St Petersburg Open. This should be an interesting clash between two in-form players. Humbert obviously has the superior pedigree.
But he may struggle to find his rhythm on these slower surfaces. It’s not easy to come to the net with confidence on here and Kotov has proven himself to be quite adaptable to eclectic conditions. Still, Humbert should have the class to ultimately persevere.
Alexander Bublik 8/10 | Marton Fucsovics 99/100
Unconventional Kazakh Alexander Bublik must be one of the most infuriating players on the ATP Tour. He is one of those players who will reach three finals in a year and then inexplicably go on a nine-match losing streak.
But he can be an absolute brute in favourable conditions. The huge-serving 26-year-old won his maiden ATP 500 title in Halle last year. He then doubled up with an indoor title in Antwerp during the closing stages of the season.
And he has already tasted success this calendar year, winning in Montpelier to become the first man in ATP history to win a title after losing the first set in every match. But how did he lose to Nagel in straight sets at the Aussie Open?
He lost to a rejuvenated Raonic in Rotterdam last week and it will be fascinating to see which Bublik we see in Qatar. He has openly stated that he isn’t in love with the game and that certainly comes through. Makes you think what kind of player he would be if he loved it.
The downfall of Marton Fucsovics over the past few years has been a little depressing to watch. I honestly thought that he would be a regular fixture in the top 40 after his 2021 Wimbledon quarter-final run. But the Hungarian’s form has really stagnated since then.
It’s almost as if he became more obsessed with becoming the most shredded player on the circuit (perhaps he’s playing the social media game). The 32-year-old flirted with some big results last year, reaching the 3rd round of two Slams and the 4th round of the Indian Wells Masters. He also managed to reach the semi-finals of the BOSS Open.
But his season was largely underwhelming and I wonder if his added muscle mass is hindering his performance. But he looked impressive in his opener, dispatching veteran hardcourt operator Roberto Bautista Agut in straight sets. Can he use his immense physicality to wear down the occasionally disinterested Bublik?
Verdict: Fucsovics to win in three sets 7/2
Bubik leads the head-to-head rivalry 3-0 in tour-level matches (though Fucsovics did win a Challenger match way back in 2017). I think there is a possibility that the Hungarian could cause a bit of an upset here. These courts are really slow and may allow Fucsovics to get a foothold in the match. He could force Bublik into plenty of errors if he remains patient.
