We’re now into the final 16 of the 2024 edition of the ATP Tour’s Dubai Tennis Championships. Damien Kayat previews Alexander Bublik v Tallon Griekspoor and Seb Korda v Botic van de Zandschulp.
2024 ATP Tour – ATP 500
Dubai Tennis Championship
Aviation Club Tennis Centre, Dubai
Selected Ro16 Matches – 28 February
Alexander Bublik 73/100 | Tallon Griekspoor 21/20
Oft-castigated for his unpredictable performances, 26-year-old Kazakh Alexander Bublik is finally starting to become somewhat ‘consistent’. Bublik won titles in Halle and Antwerp last season and he recently added a fourth career title in Montpellier.
I really think that the Montpelier victory- his second Open Sud de France title- was a turning point for the Kazakh. He became the first player in ATP Tour history to win a title after dropping the first set in every match.
That type of grit isn’t something you usually associate with the causal Bublik. It tells me that he might be ready to take the game somewhat more seriously. He lost to an inspired Popyrin in Qatar last week and he just came from a set down to beat Machac in a thriller.
These quicker conditions should suit him more than Qatar. He has a huge serve and he loves to play concise first-strike tennis and will look to build on the Machac comeback and try to remain more consistent with his groundstrokes.
27-year-old Tallon Griekspoor has really been flying the Dutch flag proudly over the past 15 months or so. The well-rounded, all-court player reached three ATP finals last year (winning titles in Pune and Rosmalen).
He then went down to Dan Evans in his maiden ATP 500 final in Washington. He hasn’t spent a huge amount of time on court due to injury this season. But his round of 32 victory over Shelbayh- who had to withdraw in the 2nd set due to injury- improved his 2024 record to 6-2.
He looked impressive in Rotterdam, beating the likes of Hurkacz and Ruusuvuori en route to the Rotterdam semi-finals. That victory over Hurkacz highlighted his ability to absorb power and counterpunch adroitly (which should come in handy here).
He serves well but he isn’t completely reliant on power. He comes to the net and volleys efficiently and he dabbles in the odd drop-shot or three. He has a varied game that overcomes his lack of a megawatt weapon.
Verdict: Griekspoor to win in three at 7/2
Bublik has dominated this rivalry, leading Griekspoor 3-0 in their head-to-head matches. But look a little closer. The two straight-sets wins consisted of four tiebreaks and their last meeting was a three-set triumph for the Kazakh in 2022.
Both of these players have improved since then and I think this could be a very tight affair. I just think that Griekspoor could have the edge here. He has looked really busy this season and I can see him outmaneuvering Bublik from the baseline.
Seb Korda 39/100 | Botic van de Zandschulp 39/20
Seb Korda has been slightly unlucky this season. The American- a member of the Korda sporting dynasty- ran into Dimitrov and de Minaur in the early stages of Marseille and Rotterdam. Those are two of the hottest players on tour (not named Sinner) and Korda should be far more pleased with this draw.
He enjoyed a really solid 2023 that was perhaps dwarfed by the massive gains made by the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner. The American reached finals in Adelaide and Astana and he also reached a maiden Grand Slam quarter-final in Melbourne.
Additionally, he made it to a first Masters 1000 semi-final in Shanghai, picking up his first win over a top-five player- Daniil Medvedev- in the process. He has been more subdued this season but I think it’s only a matter of time until we see his real quality.
He plays wonderfully aggressive tennis, essentially taking the racquet out of his opponent’s hand when he is on song. He just demolished Kotov in straight sets and he is looking a real threat this week.
That was certainly what the doctor ordered for Botic van de Zandschulp. His straight-sets win over the pugnacious Adrian Mannarinno was as welcome as it what unexpected. The Dutchman has been in an awful rut dating back to the final of last year’s Bavarian International.
Van de Zandschulp choked in that final, imploding in spectacular fashion to hand Holger Rune the title. Including that final, van de Zandshlup had gone 8-20 in completed matches coming into this week’s tournament. I think the nature of that capitulation haunted him.
So, for him to come out and outplay one of the craftiest players on tour is a big deal. Van de Zandschulp served well against Mannarrino and his movement looked superb. He will be hoping that performance will perhaps unlock something in his game.
Verdict: Korda to win in straight sets 21/20
The Dutchman actually owns a tidy 2-1 head-to-head superiority over the American. But I don’t think that will carry the day here. Korda was imperious against Kotov and he will love these quicker conditions. I expect him to shine, coming forward to the net and putting maximum pressure on a misfiring Van de Zandschlup.
