The ATP Tour’s Monte-Carlo Masters continues this week. Damien Kayat shares his betting tips for the Ro32 as Karen Khachanov faces Francesco Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz takes on Felix Auger-Aliassime.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Monte-Carlo Masters
Monte Carlo Country Club
Selected Ro32 Matches – 10 March
Karen Khachanov 49/100 | Francesco Cerundolo 31/20
This promises to be a fascinating baseline slugfest. Russian 15th seed Karen Khachanov is a bit of an enigma to me. He reached back-to-back Grand Slam hardcourt semi-finals a few years ago and looked set for a sustained period in the world’s top ten.
But injury and fluctuations with form have held him back over the last 18 months or so. Still, the energetic Russian managed to reach the fourth round of the Aussie Open earlier this year and he also went on to claim a sixth career ATP title in Qatar.
He is a rock-solid defensive baseliner who has the ability to switch into offensive mode in an instant. But clay is certainly not the Russian’s preferred surface (despite two excellent Roland Garros quarter-final runs).
Khachanov has never reached an ATP Tour final on clay and he has only once reached the fourth round of a Masters 1000 clay-court event. He hits the ball too flat to be consistently deadly on these slower tracks. His one Masters 1000 clay-court quarter-final came on the decidedly quicker Madrid surfaces last season. But he showed plenty of grit to hold off Cameron Norrie in what was a tricky Monte-Carlo opener.
Next up for Khachanov is Argentine clay-court specialist Francesco Cerundolo. 15 of Cerundolo’s 16 Futures and ITF finals have come on clay courts. And three of his four full ATP finals have also come on clay.
He reached the fourth round of last year’s French Open to record his best-ever performance in a Grand Slam tournament. Furthermore, he managed to reach the quarters in Rome last season (which plays at a similarly slow pace to this event). Cerundolo doesn’t really fit the mould of your stereotypical clay-court specialist.
His game isn’t purely based on kinetic movement like Diego Schwartzmann. Cerundolo has an explosive forehand that allows him to turn up the tempo from time to time. He also has decent hands and doesn’t mind coming to the net on occasion.
He hasn’t been in great form this year but a semi-final run in Rio showcased just how well he plays on clay. He just edged past the unpredictable Daniel Altmaier and victory in this match could take him to his best Monte-Carlo Masters result.
Verdict: Cerundolo to win in three at 46/10
Khachanov leads the head-to-head between these two 3-0. That included a nail-biting victory a few weeks back in Miami. In fact, two of their meetings have been extremely tight three-set affairs. But this will be their first-ever meeting on clay.
And they also happen to be arguably the slowest clay-courts out there. This could give clay-court specialist Cerundolo a bit of a fighting chance. Khachanov’s flatter groundstrokes aren’t going to penetrate the court so easily and the Argentine could pick up his first win against the Russian.
Carlos Alcaraz 2/15 | Felix Auger-Aliassime 48/10
Reigning Wimbledon champ Carlos Alcaraz will look to get into the clay-court swing in this mouthwatering round of 32 tie with Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Spaniard will be looking to reclaim the World No.2 ranking this week after a seesaw couple of weeks.
Alcaraz started this season slowly by his standards, losing to Zverev in the Aussie Open quarters before a lacklustre South American clay-court swing. He seemed to have some fitness issues but he roared back at Indian Wells, winning that Masters 1000 event for the second successive season (beating Jannik Sinner in the process).
But he was humbled by Dimitrov in Miami and Sinner would go on to win the second leg of the ‘Sunshine Double’, leapfrogging Alcaraz into a career-high ranking of second. Amazingly, Alcaraz only won 56% of his first-serve points in that defeat to Dimitrov. He should feel confident that his prodigious clay-court abilities can rectify that little hiccup.
The two-time Madrid Open defending champion has played very little tennis in Monte-Carlo and he is actually yet to win a match here. But he should thrive in the slow conditions, using his freakish athleticism to run everything down.
Can Felix Auger-Aliassime even be competitive in this match? The Canadian has plummeted down the rankings in recent seasons and clay isn’t exactly his forte. Having said that, he did reach two clay-court finals way back in 2019.
But the French Open is the only Slam in which he hasn’t reached a quarter-final and he comes into this clay-court season in pretty humdrum form. He reached the semi-finals in Montpelier earlier this year but he has really struggled against more illustrious opposition.
He looked very impressive in his opener, needing just 81 minutes to see off Luca Nardi 6-2, 6-3. He hit 21 winners and never faced a break point in the entire match. This was only his second win in five appearances on surfaces that really don’t suit the Canadian’s skillset.
These courts are almost comically slow and Auger-Aliassime can become a bit one-dimensional when he can’t penetrate court.
Verdict: Alcaraz to win in straight sets 46/100
The Canadian actually leads the head-to-head 3-2. But Alcaraz easily beat him at this year’s Indian Wells Masters and this will be their first meeting on clay.
Alcaraz is going to have a field day against this version of Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian just won’t be able to match the Spaniard’s hypnotic combination of athleticism and power.
