Olympic Tennis – Women: selected round of 64 matches preview

2020 Summer Olympics
Women’s Olympic Tennis
Ariake Tennis Park, Tokyo, Japan (Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 64 Matches- 24th July

Anett Kontaveit 14/10 | Maria Sakkari 11/20

You would be forgiven for thinking that Anett Kontaveit has plummeted outside of the world’s top 100. That’s just how far she has flown under the radar this year. She has actually endured a turbulent year behind the scenes, with several coaching changes breaking some of the fluidity that she has enjoyed in recent campaigns. But that aside, she has actually had a fairly decent campaign, reaching WTA 500 finals in Australia and Eastbourne. She has been on the cusp of going deep in several other events. She lost to eventual champion Petra Kvitova in a thrilling three-set Doha final, once again asserting her excellence on hardcourts. This is a theme in Kontaveit’s career. Her hardcourt win-loss ratio over the last three years is a tidy 43-21. She reached the semi-final of the 2019 Miami Open and reached her only Premier 5 final at the Wuhan Open. She should be ideally suited to the DecoTurf hardcourts this year. She should also feel refreshed after taking some time after her disappointing early exit from Wimbledon.

Maria Sakkari has been very vocal in the media about her passion for her country, stating that this is her highlight of the tennis calendar. The Greek star will be looking to put up a strong display in the iconic sporting event that originated in her country. She has really developed into a dangerous opponent on all surfaces over the past two years. But much of her telling success has come on hard surfaces. She reached this year’s Miami Open semi-final, snapping Naomi Osaka’s 23 match-winning streak in the process. She also made back-to-back hardcourt semi-finals in Australia to start the year. She also upped her profile significantly with her brilliant showing at Roland Garros. She broke Iga Swiatek’s 11-match French Open win streak, becoming the first Greek woman to reach a Grand Slam singles quarterfinal and later semi-final. Sakkari seems pumped for this event and will be a nightmare early opponent.

Verdict: Sakkari in straight sets at 5/4

Amazingly, this will be the 10th time these two will have met since 2016. Sakkari narrowly leads the head-to-head 5-4. They share the hardcourt wins at three apiece. These are razor-thin margins. Kontaveit won their last hardcourt meeting at this years Grampian’s Trophy. But Sakkari avenged that epic defeat with a resounding victory on the Madrid clay-courts. I’m pulling strongly in the direction of Sakkari this week. I’m just really buoyed by her palpable excitement for this event. I know that may sound like a slightly shallow indicator for success, but patriotic fervour could play a strong role in some of these matches. I think Sakkari could win in straight sets at 5/4.

Naomi Osaka 1/11 | Saisai Zheng 6/1

Naomi Osaka will be the clear focal point of this year’s Olympic tennis. The World Number Two will be looking to become Japan’s first Olympic Gold medallist in tennis. Obviously, this has added significance with the games being held in Tokyo this year. But due to Tokyo’s new state of emergency, Osaka will not be able to bank on any hometown advantage: no fans will be present in any events this year. It will be fascinating to see how sharp Osaka will be. She hasn’t played since the huge furore at Roland Garros, becoming a champion for mental health awareness in the interim. But there is no doubting Osaka’s pre-eminence on hardcourts. Osaka has won a Grand Slam every year since 2018 (all of them on hard surfaces). Osaka may actually benefit from the lack of fans and slightly diminished intensity.

27-year-old Chinese pro, Saisai Zheng is also coming in cold, playing her first match since losing in the 2nd round of the French Open. Zheng actually won the silver medal at the 2010 Youth Olympics. She also stunned 4th seed Agnieszka Radwanska at the 2016 games in Rio. But she doesn’t bring much form into these Olympics, currently sitting at a poor 6-12 win-loss ratio this year. Having said that, she lost her opening six matches of the year and she seems to have found some consistency in her game. Zheng is a dogged hardcourt player, winning her one and only WTA title on the San Jose hardcourts in 2019 (beating Aryna Sabalenka in the final). She just needs to hang in during the opening stages of this match, hoping that some overexuberance may creep into Osaka’s game.

Verdict: Osaka in three sets at 36/10

Naomi Osaka leads Saisai Zheng 2-1 in their career head-to-head meetings. Zheng won their first-ever encounter when Osaka was just 17. Osaka has won their last two matches in emphatic fashion. Now obviously Osaka is the heavy favourite for this match. But there will be huge pressure on Osaka to deliver this week, especially since she jettisoned Wimbledon in preparation. She may be vulnerable in the early stages of this year’s tournament. Zheng is a consistent defensive player who will just look to keep rallies alive. Osaka may rack up a high unforced error count if she forces the issue. I think the best value is Osaka in three at 36/10. Zheng is the type of foe who could frustrate Osaka. But the Japanese star should emerge victorious in the end.