OUTRIGHT PREVIEW: 2024 Olympic Games – Women’s tennis

Not only do the players have to put their North American hardcourt preparations on hold; they also have to negotiate the switch from quick, low-bouncing grass to slow, high-bouncing clay (it’s like going back in time in the calendar year). The tournament will be hosted on the iconic clay courts at Roland Garros, making these the first clay-court Games since Barcelona in 1992.

Elena Rybakina has been quite vocal in her disapproval of the demented WTA schedule and the placement of these games was always going to result in a number of high-profile no-shows.

Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka has chosen to reject the invitation to play under a neutral flag in Paris, worried that all the seesaw surface changes will affect her US Open preparations. Ons Jabeur was advised by her medical team to skip this year’s festivities.

That is a real shame, because Jabeur has proven to be an adroit clay-court operator and she almost certainly represented Tunisia’s best chance of earning a medal during these games. Madison Keys will miss out due to injury while Emma Radacanu curiously declined the ITF wildcard offer to represent Great Britain (not a great look for someone widely castigated for her lack of application).

Also, defending gold medallist Belinda Bencic will not be back to defend her title as she enjoys her time away with her newborn daughter. Added to that, Tokyo silver medallist Marketa Vondrousova also misses out due to injury.

Contenders

There is really just one looming question his year: can anyone stop Iga Swiatek in her seemingly inevitable march towards Olympic Gold? The Pole has turned Roland Garros into her personal playground in recent times, winning four of the last five French Opens (and the last three successive titles).

It’s almost as if fate has intervened on Swiatek’s behalf this year, with the Paris Olympics landing slap-bang in the middle of her era of dominance.

World No.2 Coco Gauff has really struggled in her ‘rivalry’ with Swiatek and this could be the perfect chance for her to improve that head-to-head disparity.

Elena Rybakina has proven to be Swiatek’s kryptonite in recent years and she will feel confident of disrupting the Pole’s Olympic coronation.

Format

The singles competition will feature 64 players and will take place over six rounds. All of the matches will obviously take place over three sets.

Historical Note

Steffi Graf remains the only person, man or woman, to complete the calendar Golden Slam, winning all four majors and Olympic Gold back in 1988. I honestly think that may never be repeated in human history.

Past Winners

• 2020: Belinda Bencic bt Marketa Vondrousvoa (7-5, 2-6, 6-3) *Tokyo
• 2016: Monica Puig bt Angelique Kerber (6-4, 4-6, 6-1) *Rio
• 2012: Serena Williams bt Maria Sharapova (6-0, 6-1) *London
• 2008: Elena Dementieva bt Dinara Safina (3-6, 7-5, 6-3) *Beijing
• 2004: Justine Henin bt Amelie Mauresmo (6-3, 6-3) *Athens

The Big Three

Aryna Sabalenka

Aryna Sabalenka’s absence just reinforces the notion that this has to be Swiatek’s year. The Pole has won 21 consecutive French Open matches. And she absolutely blitzed her way to this year’s title, winning 14 out of 15 sets.

In fact, she won 10 of those 14 sets by a 6-2 margin or better. That’s dominance. Furthermore, Swiatek has won her last six WTA 1000 clay-court events.

One thing that could work against her is her lack of time on court. She is accustomed to playing some solid warm-up events coming into the French Open. She has only played three competitive matches since she won her fouth Roland Garros title. Could that offer her rivals a glimmer of hope?

Coco Gauff

Coco Gauff will certainly be hoping to steal a march on the Pole this week. The reigning US Open champion has lost to Swiatek in each of the last three editions of the French Open.

Moreover, she currently trails Swiatek 11-1 in their head-to-head rivalry. If only she could call the Men-in-Black to erase her memories of the Pole.

Because she has a brilliant 15-0 record against everyone else in Paris over the last three years. She-like Swiatek- endured a slightly frustrating early exit at Wimbledon.

I just have a feeling that the 19-year-old may struggle with the physical whiplash of all these surface changes (but I may be wrong).

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina is the one woman in the entire draw who won’t fear the Swiatek onslaught. Swiatek is 31-2 in her last 33 clay-court matches. Both of those defeats came at the hands of the big-serving Kazakh.

Rybakina beat the Pole in straight sets in Stuttgart this year and she currently owns a 40-7 record for the season. She has won three titles and is fresh off a solid semifinal run at SW19.

Her brand of first-strike tennis destabilizes the aggressive Swaitek (Rybakina owns a 4-2 head-to-head career advantage over the Pole). I honestly have the feeling that Rybakina could be the one to beat this year.

She will make mincemeat of her early opponents and I think her deeper run at Wimbledon could come in handy as the tournament progresses

My Top-ten Picks

There are a few players that I’m willing to dismiss offhand this week. Aussie Open runner-up Qinwen Zheng will pick up plenty of traction after winning in Palermo last week. But she was the number one seed and she hadn’t reached a semi-final since the Aussie Open.

I’m also willing to dismiss the out-of-form Maria Sakkari.

Barbora Krejcikova will obviously attract plenty of attention after her barnstorming Wimbledon win. However, the former French Open champ doesn’t have a tremendous record when it comes to backing up massive performances.

Also, she was 0-4 in her clay-court singles matches this season. I just struggle to see her replicating her Wimbledon form.

Jessica Pegula came close to earning a selection. The perennial Grand Slam quarterfinalist has been one of the most consistent players in the world for the past few years.

She has played some solid clay-court tennis throughout her career, reaching a French Open quarterfinal and a Madrid Open final. She missed this year’s French Open due to injury and she is fresh off a disappointing second round exit at Wimbledon.

There just isn’t quite enough there for me to back her. And I feel similarly about the mercurial Jelena Ostapenko. The former French Open champion is hot off a solid Wimbledon quarterfinal run.

If only she could harness her emotions and cut down on some of the histrionics. She has probably cost herself a few million dollars over the past few years due to her temper tantrums.

I’m opting for Jasmine Paolini and Danielle Collins as my upper-echelon options. I am obliged to back Jasmine Paolini after consistently underestimating the diminutive Italian in recent months. And she has utterly exceeded expectations at every turn, producing wonderful back-to-back Grand Slam runner-up finishes at Roland Garros and SW19.

The fact that she could replicate her Paris form in London leads me to believe that she could handle this dramatic switch back to the red clay.

I just love the Danielle Collins play for Paris. The American has enjoyed a career-defining campaign, winning back-to-back titles at the Miami and Charleston Opens.

She is playing with tremendous freedom since announcing her upcoming retirement and she is currently sporting a 16-4 clay-court record this year (all four of those losses coming against players not competing in Paris).

I also expect Collins to thrive in this format. Collins is the embodiment of American boisterousness and I can see her revelling in the patriotic dimension of the tournament.

My Mid-tier Choices

Emma Navarro has enjoyed a really solid breakthrough season, winning her maiden title in Hobart before a plethora of impressive results. Her quarterfinal run at Indian Wells Masters highlighted her ability to play in slow conditions.

She reached the fourth round of the French Open before reaching a first Grand Slam quarterfinal at SW19. She has just been hyper-consistent on all surfaces this season and I think that will come in handy in a tournament that requires swift adaptation.

Ukrainian Marta Kostyuk has been one of the true breakout stars on this year’s tour, reaching a maiden Grand Slam semifinal at the Aussie Open.

She enjoyed runner-up finishes at the San Diego and Stuttgart Opens (the last of which was played on clay). She also enjoyed a fabulous semi-final run at Indian Wells, highlighting her ability to compete against elite fields on slow surfaces.

She hasn’t played since a third-round exit at Wimbledon but I think that her almost unparalleled movement makes her a solid outside bet this year.

Longshot Options

I think that sentimental favourite Elina Svitolina could be a decent under-the-radar option this week. She returned to action last year with a bang, reaching her fourth French Open quarterfinal before a wonderful Wimbledon semifinal run.

She has had issues with form and injuries this year but she did produce in the last two slams, reaching the fourth round in Paris before a Wimbledon quarterfinal run. A two-time Rome champion, Svitolina – who has been very open in her condemnation of the Russian invasion of Ukraine – will probably be one of the most motivated players in this field.

Currently involved in the IASI Open, teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva has endured a pretty torrid little grass-court stretch. But you can’t dismiss how electrifying she was during this year’s clay-court swing.

She reached the quarterfinals of the Madrid Open before a groundbreaking semifinal run at Roland Garros. She was electrifying in Paris, using her supreme defensive skills to nullify the awesome power of Sabalenka in their quarterfinal match.

She is 21-7 on clay over the past two years and she could be a strong dark horse contender.