PREVIEW: WTA Tour Championships selected Group Chichen Itza Matches

WTA Finals 2021
Tour Championships
Guadalajara, Mexico (Indoor Harcourts)
Group Chichen Itza Matches- 11^th-12^th November
Thursday 11th November

Maria Sakkari  (71/100) vs Iga Swiatek (11/10)

Greek tennis has never been in a more exciting position, with both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Maria Sakkari emerging as highly credible Grand Slam contenders. Sakkari has enjoyed a breakthrough 2021 campaign, finally taking her power-based game to the next level. She has been the epitome of consistency, reaching these finals despite only reaching one final this year (in Ostrava). But she managed six semi-final showings throughout the campaign. That included two sensational Grand Slam semi-finals. She actually squandered match points against eventual Roland Garros champion Barbora Krejcikova in Paris. She then went on to replicate that performance at the US Open. Crucially, five of her six semi-finals this year have come on hardcourts. She also has an imposing record against top ten players this year. Her seven wins against top 10 players this year is more than any other player in the WTA Finals. That shows a big-match temperament that could prove decisive this week. 

The super-popular Iga Swiatek is perhaps the most kinetic player on the WTA Tour.  Her infectious personality and hell-for-leather approach to shot-making are a joy to behold.  Granted, it was always going to be hard to replicate last season’s exploits. But how often have we seen recent first-time Grand Slam winners just disappear? But 2020 French Open Champion Iga Swiatek wasn’t about to pull an Ostapenko on us. She was actually the only woman on the tour to reach at least the fourth round of every Grand Slam in 2021. She just didn’t quite have the ammunition to reach the latter stages of the slams. Her ultra-aggressive style is perhaps difficult to maintain over a full two-week period. Still, she has certainly still shown her ability to dominate events. She only dropped 22 games in winning in Adelaide.  She then demolished fellow WTA finalist Karolina Pliskova in the most lopsided WTA Final of the year. She gave Pliskova the dreaded double-doughnut in the Rome final. Swiatek could be a wonderful dark-horse in an event that requires concentrated bursts of aggression. 

Verdict: Swiatek to win in three at 37/10- Sakkari leads the head-to-head 2-0, actually winning both of their previous matches in straight sets. Both of those matches came this year, with the Greek memorably ending Swiatek’s incredible 11-match winning streak at Roland Garros. Both of these players have lost momentum lately. I just think that Swiatek may benefit from the conditions. The Guadalajara courts are supposed to be slow and bouncy, perhaps replicating clay-court conditions.  

Friday 12th November

Aryna Sabalenka (13/20) vs Paula Badosa (12/10)

Aryna Sabalenka is a rather quirky number one seed going into a WTA Finals. The Belarusian has benefitted from the non-participation of heavyweights Naomi Osaka and Ashleigh Barty.  However, Sabalenka has made great strides this year and she will be a worthy title contender this week. Just like Maria Sakkari, Sabalenka reached two Grand Slam semi-finals in 2021. She actually reached the semi-finals of the last two Grand Slams (Wimbledon and the US Open). She also captured titles in Abu Dhabi and Madrid. The massive-serving Sabalenka may not fall in love with these slightly lower surfaces. She has also been in the news for other reasons, contracting the Coronavirus on the eve of last month’s Indian Wells. She was something of an anti-vaxxer prior to contracting the virus. But after being waylaid by the disease she chose to take the vaccine. In any event, she doesn’t really enter this event with too much tennis under her belt. She failed to make an impression at the Kremlin Cup last week, losing to Alexandrova in the quarterfinals. Can she elevate her game this week?

Paula Badosa entered her maiden WTA Finals courtesy of a mammoth late-season surge. Badosa has compiled a really decent 41-15 win-loss record during 2021. She reached the quarterfinals of the French Open and the Olympic Games. She also won the Serbia Open after reaching the semi-finals of the Madrid Open. But let’s be real, the performance that propelled Badosa into this position was her incredible victory at last month’s Indian Wells event. She beat three Grand Slam champions- Barbora Krejcikova, Angelique Kerber and Victoria Azarenka- en route to winning the BNP Paribas Open.  Badosa will need to absorb Sabalenka’s huge serve and protract as many rallies as possible. 

Verdict: Badosa to win at 5/4- Badosa actually leads the head-to-head 1-0, overcoming Sabalenka in a tight three-set match earlier this year in Cincinatti. The Spaniard is actually coming into this event on a six-match winning streak. There are also lingering concerns about Sabalenka’s fitness after the whole Covid drama.  Badosa’s use of heavy topspin should come in handy on this slower surface. Sabalenka likes to hit through the ball and may struggle to dominate from the back of the court. But I can’t quite decide on the nature of the win. So, I think the outright win for Badosa may be the most prudent option.