Damien Kayat previews Danielle Collins vs Shelby Rogers and Claire Liu vs Bernarda Pera in the Round of 64 matches of the Credit One Charleston Open on the 4th March 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Credit One Charleston Open
LTP – Daniel Island, Charleston, South Carolina (Outdoor Clay)
Selected Round of 64 Matches – 4th March
Danielle Collins 13/20 | Shelby Rogers 12/10
This is an all-American clash between two players striving for their best form. 13th seed Danielle Collins hasn’t been able to reach the heights that saw her reach last year’s Aussie Open final. The hard-hitting American is 9-9 for the season and has generally battled to get through the early rounds.
Her best showing was a creditable semi-final run in Austin. But she is fresh off a pretty horrendous ‘Sunshine Double’. Dalma Galfi knocked her out at Indian Wells before Pegula took her down in Miami.
This will only be the 2nd time that Collins will have graced the Charleston courts (she managed to reach the quarterfinals here back in 2019). But Collins has some fairly recent clay-court prowess to her name.
She reached the quarterfinals of the 2020 French Open before claiming her maiden WTA Tour title at the 2021 Palermo Open.
Shelby Rogers has arguably had a worse season than her opponent: she is 6-7 for the year in main draw action. Her best result of the season thus far was a quarterfinal run in Abu Dhabi.
She won both her opening round matches of the Sunshine Double (including a victory over Sloane Stephens in Miami). But she was eliminated in the 2nd round of both events (albeit by Maria Sakkari and Aryna Sabalenka).
Rogers has earned a reputation for being a dangerous dark horse who can oust anyone. But her most recent success has predominantly come on hardcourts. She reached the quarterfinal of the US Open in 2020 and the final of the Silicon Valley Classic last year.
Interestingly, much of her early success came on clay. She reached clay-court finals in 2014 and 2016. And she also had an excellent quarterfinal run in the 2016 French Open. Rogers has the power to flatten out her shots and penetrate on these slower surfaces.
But her clay-court form has deteriorated as she has become a hardcourt force. She has never won a WTA 1000 clay-court match. Also, she has only reached the quarterfinals here once in eight previous attempts.
Verdict: Rogers to win in three at 42/10
Rogers actually leads the head-to-head 2-1. One of those wins came when Collins retired in their 2021 Cincinnati Open encounter. Crucially, Rogers won their only clay-court match in straight sets at last year’s French Open.
This could be a tight one. Both of these players hit the ball hard and will look to keep rallies to a minimum. Rogers is perhaps more consistent while Collins can swing from the sublime to the ridiculous. I can easily see Collins getting frustrated and committing a plethora of errors.
Claire Liu 11/10 vs Bernarda Pera 69/100
This could prove to be yet another fascinating all-American clash. 22-year-old Claire Liu is coming into this event with some confidence after her best showing of the year in Miami.
She beat Katerina Siniakova and Julie Grabher before falling to Martina Trevisan in three sets. The World No.59’s previous best result of the season was reaching the final 16 in Adelaide as a qualifier. But she should feel comfortable as the tour moves into the clay-court season.
She has a combined record of 29-8 on clay over the past two seasons. This included her maiden WTA finals appearance in last year’s Rabat Grand Prix. She also won the Clarins Trophy on the Challenger circuit last year. She is a pugnacious competitor who is well-suited to these slower, stickier conditions.
28-year-old Bernarda Pera has endured a pretty poor year thus far (she is currently 7-8 for the season). The lefty comes to Charleston off the back of a pretty shocking first-round defeat to Evgeniyia Rodina in Miami.
She will take some solace from the fact that she reached the doubles semi-final in Miami (playing alongside Magda Linette). But Pera has still managed to squeak into the world’s top 40 for the first time in her career. And like Liu, Pera will be more than happy with this switch to clay.
She enjoyed a major career breakthrough on clay last year, winning her first WTA titles at the Budapest Grand Prix and Hamburg European Open. She will be hoping for a similar momentum shift this season as the tour switches gears.
Verdict: Liu to win in straight sets at 47/20
Pera leads the head-to-head 1-0. But that victory came during qualification of a low-level event way back in 2016. Pera is arguably the bigger hitter- think of her a diet Petra Kvitova. Liu is ultra-aggressive and athletic- think of her as a B-side Cori Gauff.
I just have the feeling that Liu will build on her form in Miami and persevere here. The 22-year-old grew up on clay- training at the USTA tennis centre in Carson- and I think she could score the victory here.
