Aryana Sabalenka faces off against Danielle Collins while Daria Kasatkina plays against Yulia Putintseva in the round of 16 at the WTA Madrid Open. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Mutua Madrid Open
La Caja Magica
Selected Ro16 Matches – 29 Apri 2024l
Aryna Sabalenka 72/100 | Danielle Collins 21/20
This has the potential to be a minor classic. World No.2 Aryna Sabalenka has really experienced highs and lows this season. The Belarusian stormed to her second Aussie Open title with a devastating display in Melbourne.
She then had to navigate personal tragedy following the apparent suicide of her ex-boyfriend. She hasn’t looked the same player since that terrible news, failing to go beyond the quarter-final stage in her last five tournaments.
She has looked a bit cagey in Madrid, needing three sets to overcome both Magda Linette and American wild card Robin Montgomery. But the Belarusian knows exactly what it takes to win in these deceptively quick conditions.
She is aiming to join Petra Kvitova with three Madrid titles (she won in 2021 and last season). Sabalenka has improved immeasurably on clay, reaching the semi-finals of last year’s French Open. Her mobility has improved and she also has the ability to linger in rallies if the right shot doesn’t present itself. But next up she faces the hottest player in the world right now: Danielle Collins.
The Danielle Collins retirement tour just keeps on going. She had to call on all her renowned powers of concentration and grit to come back from a set down against clay-court expert Jaqueline Cristian. That victory extended her current winning streak to a stunning 15 matches!
She only dropped two sets during her Miami and Charleston victories. She has looked a bit jaded this week, requiring three sets against both Danilovic and Cristian. The American queen of grunt has enjoyed some fleeting success on clay throughout her career, reaching the quarter-finals of the French Open back in 2020.
She won her maiden WTA Tour title in Palermo and she is obviously fresh off that stunning win in Charleston. Collins looks at ease in these fairly quick conditions, leaning on her big serve when her A-game has perhaps eluded her. I wonder if there’s a level of success she could achieve this season that could convince her to reconsider those retirement plans.
Because she is currently playing some of the most intense, ruthless tennis that you could possibly imagine.
Verdict: Sabalenka to win 72/100
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-0. Curiously, three of those career meetings have come at the US Open. But this will be their first-ever meeting on clay.
And for some reason I see Collins’ incredibly run coming to an end. Sabalenka has done the hard yards this week and I think the two-time Madrid champion will find her best tennis out there.
Daria Kasatkina 58/100 | Yulia Putintseva 13/10
The oft-underrated Daria Kasatkina is quietly building a very respectable campaign. In fact, only Elena Rybakina has reached more finals than Putintseva this year. Kasatkina reached hardcourt finals in Adelaide and Abu Dhabi.
And she just reached her second career final at the Charleston Open (losing to the inspirational Collins in the final). She hasn’t looked a hundred per cent comfortable in this year’s event, barely surviving her opening encounter against Bucsa.
She looked slightly more composed against Pavlyuchenkova and she will feel confident of adding to her sparkling clay-court resume. Kasatkina is a former Charleston champion with semi-final appearances at Roland Garros and Rome. She loves clay, using her natural variety to create some crazy angles.
Next up for Daria Kasatkina is good friend Yulia Putintseva. The 29-year-old Kazakh is one of the more combustible characters out here. She was once known for celebrating openly when her opponents double-faulted (that’s pretty poor form).
The firebrand has actually run into some pretty impressive form over the last few months, compiling a record of 10-2 in her last three WTA 1000 events. The clay-court specialist played really well during the ‘Sunshine Double’, reaching the final 16 at Indian Wells before a quarter-final run in Miami.
And she has looked extremely impressive this fortnight, not dropping a set in three solid victories. The Kazakh will look to dominate with her impressive forehand. She needs to be wary of Kasatkina’s crafty and versatile backhand wing.
Verdict: Putintseva to win in three sets 44/10
Kasatkina won their only previous encounter in straight sets, easily seeing off the Kazakh at the 2018 Wimbledon Championships. I just have a sneaky suspicion that the Kazakh will do a number on her good friend here.
She is in excellent form and seems perfectly suited to the pace of these courts. Kasatkina prefers her clay-courts a bit slower and I think Putintseva could win a tight encounter.
