Damien Kayat previews Elena Rybakina vs Ons Jabeur and Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys in selected Quarterfinals of the Wimbledon Championships, on the 12th of July 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club
Selected Quarter-finals – 12th June
Elena Rybakina 57/100 | Ons Jabeur 27/20
This has all the ingredients of a classic, as Elena Rybakina and Ons Jabeur meet in a rematch of last year’s Wimbledon final. Rybakina memorably came from a set down to win last year’s SW19 title.
Kazakh star Rybakina has just gone from strength to strength in this year’s championships. It’s crazy to think that the lingering effects of a virus almost derailed her title defence. She looked undercooked in her first match against Shelby Rogers, having to fight back from a set down to survive an embarrassing first-round exit.
But since then, she has looked serene. She took down the tricky Cornet in straight-sets before annihilating British hopeful Katie Boulter. And she benefitted from an early retirement from French Open semi-finalist Haddad Maia in their 4th round clash.
Rybakina has turned into a big-match machine over the last 12 months (reaching her 2nd Grand Slam final in Melbourne and winning two WTA 1000 titles). She is serving plenty of aces and completely blowing players away. But she will know that the crafty Ons Jabeur is a formidable adversary.
28-year-old Tunisian Ons Jabeur has come a huge way over the past two years, breaking down barriers for future generations of Arab players in the process. 2022 saw her reach her first two Grand Slam finals (losing at Wimbledon and the US Open).
She required right-knee surgery at the beginning of the season and it really held her back a bit. But victory in Charleston was followed by a highly creditable French Open quarterfinal run, indicating that the Tunisian was approaching peak fitness.
And she just loves it at Wimbledon. This is the 3rd consecutive season in which she has reached the final eight here. Her game is less based on raw power than that of Rybakina. She employs a wide variety of slice and guile to take advantage of these low-bouncing conditions.
But she also has the ability to move up the tempo when necessary. This was evident in her brutal victory against Berlin champ Petra Kvitova. She needed just 63 minutes to beat the two-time Wimbledon champ, hitting 17 winners and winning a staggering 82% of her first-serve points.
Those serving stats make for very encouraging reading as she aims to end Rybakina’s Wimbledon winning streak.
Verdict: Jabeur to win in three at 42/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Their last meeting was actually Rybakina’s victory in last year’s Championship match. I really love the look of Jabuer this year. She just overcame one of the most dangerous players in the draw with minimum fuss.
I think her slice and ingenuity could unsettle Rybakina in this match. Rybakina hasn’t faced elite competition yet and I think Jabeur’s quest for revenge will be fulfilled.
Aryna Sabalenka 5/10 vs Madison Keys 31/20
What a year this has been for Aryna Sabalenka. The big-hitting Belarusian won her maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne and has remained a consistent threat to Iga Swiatek’s World No.1 status (she has reached five finals this year).
But her heartbreaking French Open semi-final defeat to Muchova did expose some of those old frailties. And I thought she was done for when she was trailing to Gracheva in her 2nd round match here. But she rallied back in that encounter and she hasn’t looked back since.
In fact, she has only dropped nine total games in her last two matches. And that included her last outing against the in-form Ekaterina Alexandrova. Sabalenka won the last eight games of her match against the big-serving Russian.
She never faced a break point in the match and crucially never served a double fault (hitting seven aces in the process). She is looking immense this year and will be looking to match her semi-final run from 2021.
I backed Madison Keys as one of my dark horse picks coming into this year’s tournament. And the American Grand Slam specialist hasn’t disappointed me. Sure, she is yet to play a seeded player at this year’s championships.
And her 4th round opponent- 16-year-old Mirra Andreeva- had a massive meltdown when the match was on her racquet. But the wily American hung in there to reach her 9th career Grand Slam quarterfinal (and first since reaching the semi-finals of last year’s Aussie Open).
She reached the quarterfinals here in 2015 and is currently on a nine-match grass-court win streak. She won her 7th career title in Eastbourne and she just looks ready for any challenge.
I love her ability to grind out opponents and play her best tennis in crucial moments. She will need to serve well here and really put pressure on the Sabalenka’s 2nd delivery.
Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three at 3/1
Sabalenka and Keys are evenly matched at one win apiece in their head-to-head rivalry. Keys won their last encounter, conquering Sabalenka on the Berlin grass-courts in 2021. Sabalenka will be the obvious favourite for this match based on current form. But Keys has the type of power-based game that can actually rival Sabalenka.
She also has the ability to put pressure on the mercurial Sabalenka delivery, stepping inside the baseline and going for pure winners on any weak 2nd serve. But I just think Sabalenka has developed an extra layer of grit in recent times and could overcome Keys in three sets.
