In a repeat of last year's US Open final, Coco Gauff takes on Aryana Sabalenka with a spot in the Australian Open on the line.
2024 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Australian Open
Melbourne Park, Melbourne,
Semi-final Preview- 25th January
The top half of the women’s draw has been as unpredictable as an Agathe Christie whodunnit, with 12th seed Qinwen Zheng the highest ranked possible finalist. The bottom half of the draw has been the complete antithesis, with Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff securing safe passage to a rematch of last year’s US Open final. With the top half of the draw comprised of relative novices at this level, this match almost feels like a virtual Aussie Open final.
To Win
Aryna Sabalenka 48/100 | Coco Gauff 16/10
What more is there to say about the machine that is Aryna Sabalenka? The hard-hitting Belarusian has been at her dismissive best in Melbourne, dropping just 16 games en route to the semi-final stage.
That quarter-final win against a potentially tricky Barbora Krejcikova took her Aussie Open winning streak to 12 matches. The defending champion has also become arguably the most consistent Grand Slam player in the world, reaching the semi-final stage or better in her last six slams.
That’s pretty impressive for someone who was once notorious for melting come the business end of events. Sabalenka started this year well enough, going down comfortably to Rybakina in the Brisbane final. But she has looked utterly merciless in Melbourne, using her mammoth serve and severe groundstrokes to quite frankly humiliate her opponents.
Sabalenka needed just 71 minutes to overcome former French Open champion Krejcikova. Just to put her power into perspective: she hit 10 forehand winners in that match while Krejcikova hit 6 winners overall. Could the lack of tough match situations come back to haunt her in the closing stages of the tournament?
It’s quite hard to believe that Coco Gauff is still just 19 years of age. Perhaps that’s because she plays with the self-assuredness of a highly decorated veteran. Gauff had to do a lot of soul-searching following her chastening straight-sets defeat to Swiatek in the 2022 French Open final.
She drastically overhauled her coaching staff last season and that ushered in a new era of success for the talented American. She won her maiden Grand Slam at the US Open and she is currently working on a few impressive streaks.
Her battling quarter-final win over Marta Kostyuk took her current Grand Slam winning streak to 12 matches. She has also won all 10 of her competitive matches this season, successfully defending a title for the first time in her career at the ASB Classic.
And Gauff sailed into this year’s quarter-finals with very little resistance. That was until she ran into pit bull Marta Kostyuk. Her quarter-final win over Kostyuk must be one of the most bizarre matches I have seen in some time. Both players struggled tremendously with their rhythm and Gauff actually ended up with 51 unforced errors to just 15 winners!
She was just lucky that Kostyuk was even more erratic than her. It wasn’t the smoothest way for her to enter a semi-final against the imperious Sabalenka.
But maybe Gauff will take some solace from the fact that she somehow managed to win playing her ‘C’ game. She would never have won that match two years ago and I think that says a lot about her new-found self-belief. And she will go into this match with a favourable head-to-head advantage over Sabalenka.
Verdict: Sabalenka to win in straight sets at 11/10
Gauff actually leads Sabalenka 4-2 in their head-to-head rivalry. She memorably came from a set down to win her maiden Slam in New York a few months ago. But this will be a completely different test for Gauff. These surfaces are much quicker than New York and are less conducive to the type of extended rallies that Gauff enjoys.
Sabalenka’s flat and powerful hitting will nullify Gauff’s stellar movement. I know that Gauff has recently collaborated with Andy Roddick in a bid to improve her serve. I still think that Sabalenka’s delivery is more consistent and that could prove pivotal here.
