The Canadian Open continues this week as Jelena Ostapenko faces Paula Badosa while Madison Keys goes up against Peyton Stearns in the round of 32. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – WTA 1000
Canadian Open
IGA Stadium
Selected Ro32 matches – 8 August
Jelena Ostapenko 29/20 | Paula Badosa 53/100
Jelena Ostapenko will be looking for a strong bounce-back after a tame first-round exit at the Paris Olympics. The Latvian has become a much more consistent player over the last two seasons, tempering her brand of all-out aggression with some stability.
She really started the season brilliantly, with titles in Adelaide and Linz underlining her new-found consistency.
She lost a little traction after that but bounced back with a solid quarterfinal run in Rome. She then produced another thrilling display at Wimbledon, reaching the quarterfinals for the third time in her last seven Grand Slam appearances.
I wasn’t surprised that she flopped in Paris. She has a dismal record at Roland Garros when you discount her maverick 2017 French Open victory. She has a dreadful 5-7 record in this event and she will need to address that as she comes up against the recently reinvigorated Paula Badosa.
I am so happy for Paula Badosa. The former World No.2 has suffered through a brutal array of injuries over the last few years. Last year she suffered a stress fracture of the back that actually threatened to bring a premature end to her career.
She returned to action at the beginning of the year but was forced to withdraw from a number of events due to recurring injury issues. There were signs of a resurgence on the grass courts, with a quarterfinal run at Bad Homburg followed by a respectable fourth-round finish at SW19. But few could have anticipated her title-winning performance in Washington.
Badosa seemed liberated last week, moving with the elegance and certainty that catapulted her to No.2 in the world. And she didn’t show any hangover effects in her opener, brushing aside Clara Tauson 6-1, 6-4 to extend her winning streak to six matches.
She had a rather meagre first-serve percentage of 45 against Tauson but still managed to win 83% of the ones that landed. That was a crucial weapon in Washington and it will be interesting to see how those percentages fluctuate.
The Verdict: Badosa to win in straight sets 23/20
The two share the head-to-head spoils at two wins apiece. Ostapenko won their most recent meeting, triumphing in three sets at last year’s Rome Masters.
But Badosa won in straight sets when they last met on a hardcourt (the 2022 Sydney Tennis Classic). Badosa just looks like a different player these past few weeks and Ostapenko has a really poor record in this event.
I can see the Latvian getting frustrated with the depth and consistency of Badosa’s groundstrokes.
Madison Keys 27/100 | Peyton Stearns 26/10
The 29-year-old American Madison Keys will be making her comeback after deciding to skip the Olympics in preparation for this North American hardcourt swing. She was forced to withdraw from her fourth round Wimbledon cash due to a hamstring issue and there’s an element of mystery about her physical readiness this week.
All in all, this has been a really solid season for the former US Open runner-up (albeit that she missed the early portion due to injury). She was particularly destructive on clay, reaching the semis in Madrid and the quarters in Rome.
She then put the cherry on the cake with an eighth career title in Strasbourg. She looked solid on grass, reaching the semifinals in Eastbourne before that heartbreaking fourth-round exit at SW19. Keys has a Jekyll and Hyde record in this event, finishing runner-up in 2016 but failing to go beyond the 2nd round in any of her four subsequent appearances.
I really have a feeling that Peyton Stearns could explode during this North American hardcourt swing. The 2022 NCAA Champion looked decisive in her opening clash with Anna Blinkova, winning more than 50% of all return points to take down the Russian 6-4, 6-3.
Stearns has a tremendous forehand that can cause real havoc on these slick surfaces. She won her first title at this year’s Rabat Grand Prix but she came into this tournament with some pretty ordinary recent form.
I was particularly disappointed with her straight-sets defeat to Radacanu in last week’s Citi Open. But you just need to go back to last year’s US Open to see what the 22-year-old is capable of. She reached the 4th round at Flushing Meadows last year, breaking into the top 50 as a consequence.
The Verdict: Stearns to win in three 6/1
This will be the first career meeting between these two. These two are actually quite stylistically similar, looking to use strong serves to prop up their forehand-centric games.
Keys obviously has a megawatt serve that can devastate her opponents. But she may feel slightly undercooked coming into this match and Stearns is starting to play with some real hardcourt authority.
