The Canadian Open continues this week as Jessica Pegula faces Karolina Pliskova while Marta Kostyuk goes up against Elina Svitolina in the round of 32. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – WTA 1000
Canadian Open
IGA Stadium
Selected Ro32 matches – 8 August
Jessica Pegula 39/100 | Karolina Pliskova 39/20
One of the most consistent hardcourt players of the last few years, 30-year-old American Jessica Pegula has had a decent – if unremarkable – campaign.
She reached a number of semifinals in the opening stages of the season (Adelaide, Charleston and San Diego). But she suffered a second-round exit at the Aussie Open and was forced to withdraw from the French due to neck and back injuries.
The Buffalo native bounced back from her French Open disappointment to pick up the first grass-court title of her career in Berlin. But she once again disappointed on the biggest stages, going out meekly in the second round of Wimbledon and the Olympics.
She really needs to learn how to handle those big occasions better. She has certainly found her niche at WTA 1000 level, winning two hardcourt titles in the last two years. She finished runner-up at last year’s WTA Finals and she has a brilliant record in Canada, winning last year’s title in Montreal and reaching the semifinals in the 2022 edition hosted here.
Playing in the twilight of her illustrious career, former World No.1 Karolina Pliskova has had an intriguing season. She started the year in pretty inauspicious fashion, eliminated in the opening round of the Aussie Open (she would go on to be eliminated in the first round of all three slams this year).
But she did manage to capture her first title in four years at the Transylvania Open. She followed that up with a strong WTA 1000 semifinal run in Qatar.
Her clay-court campaign was fairly nondescript but she did manage a runner-up finish on the Birmingham grass-courts. But she came into this event on a dire four-match losing streak.
She was bageled in the final set against Wang in Washington last week and this is going to be an immense challenge for the Czech. Even at her peak, the powerful Czech had issues with mobility and Pegula’s busy playing style has proved difficult for her in the past.
The Verdict: Pegula to win in three sets 31/10
Pegula leads the head-to-head 4-1, with all five of those matches coming back in 2021. Pegula hasn’t been at her vintage best this season and Pliskova has found success at this event in the past, reaching the semifinals on these very courts back in 2022 (she also finished runner-up at Montreal in 2021).
The courts are quite brisk and Pliskova’s pinpoint serve can be quite dominant. Still, Pegula is a terrific competitor and should be able to grind out the Czech in three.
Marta Kostyuk 29/20 | Elina Svitolina 52/100
This promises to be an engrossing all-Ukrainian clash. The energetic Kostyuk has endeared herself to the entire tennis community this season, picking up a slew of great results whilst playing with a smile on her face.
She reached her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal at the Aussie Open and the results just kept on flowing from there. She beat top seed Jessica Pegula en route to a runner-up finish in San Diego.
She then followed a scintillating semifinal run at Indian Wells with another runner-up finish in Stuttgart. Her results plateaued slightly after that but she looked back to her busy best at the Olympic games, losing in a nail-biting quarterfinal clash with Donna Vekic.
Despite the magnitude of that Olympic quarterfinal match, Kostyuk found time in the match to wow the crowd with some on-court dance moves. The effervescent Ukrainian is a breath of fresh air and was absolutely untroubled in her first-round win against Tatjana Maria, needing just 52 minutes to rout the German 6-0, 6-2.
Elina Svitolina is certainly representative of the more serious aspect of the Ukrainian character. She has been an outspoken critic of Russia’s war in Ukraine and that has been more important to her than tennis over the past few years.
Having said that, she returned to action last year after her pregnancy hiatus and picked up some brilliant results, reaching the quarterfinals of the French Open and the semifinals at SW19.
She has looked more erratic this campaign (though her Grand Slam results have remained consistent). She finished runner-up in Brisbane to start the year but she hasn’t reached a semifinal since (though she once again impressed at Wimbledon with a quarterfinal finish).
But she was left heartbroken in Paris after a gut-wrenching three-set exit to Krejcikova. She probably put more pressure on herself than most to perform for her country and I think that result stung.
She bounced back nicely in her opener this week, brushing aside Shelby Rogers 6-0, 6-2 (curiously the same score as Kostyuk-Maria). She won an impressive 70% of her first-serve points in the match and a colossal 60% of all return points.
Svitolina also happens to be a former champion here, winning when it was still known at the Aviva Centre back in 2017.
The Verdict: Kostyuk to win in straight sets 3/1
Svitolina leads the head-to-head 1-0, taking down Kostyuk in straight sets at the 2018 Aussie Open. I just think that Kostyuk’s 2024 form is too good to ignore (especially at these prices).
Kostyuk has the athleticism to keep up with Svitolina and her inventive shot-making just makes her irresistible at these odds.
