The 2024 Women’s French Open continues this week as Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa clash in a mouthwatering encounter while Madison Keys faces Emma Navarro in the Ro32.
2024 WTA Tour – Grand Slam Tennis
French Open
Stade Roland Garros
Selected Ro32 Matches – 31 May 2024
Aryna Sabalenka 2/9 | Paula Badosa 32/10
This is sure to be a mouthwatering clash between two self-described ‘soulmates’. Best friends Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa have both had their off-court travails this season (Sabalenka’s ex-boyfriend killed himself on the eve of the Indian Wells Masters while Badosa’s topsy-turvy love life has been tabloid gold).
But there is no doubting which player comes into this with better form. Sabalenka has regained a semblance of her scintillating Aussie Open form during the clay-court campaign, reaching the quarters in Stuttgart before back-to-back final defeats to Swiatek in Madrid and Rome. She has added real dimension to her clay-court game over the last few years, utilizing sneaky drop-shots to catch her opponents flatfooted.
She has looked utterly unchallenged in Paris, dropping just seven games in her first two matches. In fact, this year’s Aussie Open champion has now gone nine consecutive Grand Slam matches without dropping a set. Once a nervous wreck on the biggest stages, Sabalenka has evolved into a big-match dynamo who fears nobody.
Paula Badosa has endured a litany of high-profile injuries over the past few seasons and has revealed that she seriously considered quitting the game (obviously a result of that stress fracture in her back). She has withdrawn early from three tournaments this season but her form has certainly started to improve on the clay.
She was forced to withdraw from an epic Stuttgart quarter-final with Sabalenka due to a painful reoccurrence of that back injury. She was then beaten by Coco Gauff in the round of 16 in Rome. And her route to this year’s 3rd round has been a little bit different to that of her great friend.
Badosa has had to fight back from a set down twice, first overcoming Katie Boulter before a more impressive showing against clay-court specialist Yulia Putintseva.
The Verdict: Sabalenka to win in three sets 58/100
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-2, winning both of their encounters this season. This should prove an emotional roller-coaster, regardless of the result. It almost feels a bit cruel that Badosa has drawn Sabalenka this early.
I think that Badosa will need to use similar tactics to those she deployed against Putintseva (where she came to the net on a stunning 29 occasions). I think her courtcraft could help her nick a set but I can see her overcoming Sabalenka in the end.
Madison Keys 14 | Emma Navarro 22
Madison Keys is quickly turning into everybody’s favourite dark horse contender. The big-hitting American missed the early part of the season due to injury but seems to be rediscovering the form that propelled her to a US Open semi-final late last year.
The perennial Grand Slam contender is a former semi-finalist here and she has been in sensational form since the tour switched to the dirt. She beat the likes of Gauff and Jabeur en route to an impressive Madrid semi-final. And she came into this event off a morale-boosting title-winning run in Strasbourg (beating current tour darling Danielle Collins in the final).
She has eased through her first two matches without dropping a set, improving her impressive 2024 clay-court record to 13-3. She has looked dominant on serve and her forehand is looking as crisp as ever. Next up she will look to repel up-and-coming compatriot Emma Navarro.
Former NCAA Champion Emma Navarro has enjoyed a really solid breakthrough campaign. The bustling baseliner has reached three semi-finals this season, capturing her maiden title in Hobart. She also reached her first WTA 1000 quarter-final at Indian Wells, diffusing the megawatt power of Sabalenka along the way.
Her form has tapered off since the onset of the clay-court swing. The American hasn’t played a gigantic amount of clay-court tennis and you can see that she is still taking some time to acclimatize to it. She made the wise decision to dial back during the clay-court stretch, entering the WTA 125K event in Paris.
She finished runner-up in that event and I think it would have given her plenty of confidence on this unfamiliar terrain. She has looked untroubled this week, taking down qualifiers Sonmez and Errani in straight-set affairs.
The Verdict: Keys to win in straight sets 62/100
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece. Navarro won their previous meeting late last year but Keys won their only previous clay-court bout in straight sets.
And I think Keys is looking like a solid bet to progress to the 2nd week. She has found her clay-court rhythm and her weight of shot should be too much for the compact Navarro to handle.
