PREVIEW: 2024 WTA Tour – Indian Wells Masters selected Ro64 matches

2024 WTA Tour – Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected Ro64 Matches- 8 March & 9 March

Friday 8 March

Jelena Ostapenko 26/100 | Angelique Kerber 11/4

Latvian Jelena Ostapenko has quietly become one of the most improved players on tour over the last 18 months, finally discovering a semblance of consistency without losing the devil-may-care aggression that defines her style.

I think a major key in her evolution has been her improvement on serve. In any event, the Latvian firebrand has won three titles over the last eight months. Two of those titles have come this season (at the Adelaide International and the Linz Open).

She comes into the ‘Sunshine Double’ after underwhelming showings in Dubai and Qatar. Still, she is currently working a 16-5 record this season, and attracted plenty of attention in the early part of the season due to her rather hysterical on-court outbursts.

I firmly believe that she basically sabotaged herself with her behaviour during that Aussie Open thirdround match with Azarenka. Can she find the right balance between passion and focus this week?

36-year-old Angelique Kerber has just won her first WTA 1000 match in 18 months, easily overcoming Czech Petra Martic in her first-round encounter. The German- a three-time Grand Slam champion- returned to action at the beginning of the year after an 18-month hiatus following the birth of her daughter.

She started her comeback well enough with a victory at the United Cup. But subsequent first-round defeats in Melbourne and Linz really put the whole enterprise in doubt. At her peak, Kerber was a tireless defensive baseliner whose game centred on her seemingly boundless athleticism.

It was always going to be tough for her to rediscover her best form after 18 months (at this age). Her best career results have generally come on quicker surfaces that reward her flatter hitting. But she did reach the final here back in 2019, obviously harnessing her supreme athleticism to track down everything in these slow conditions. She looked impressive against Martic and I think it would be wrong to underestimate the German lefty.

Verdict: Kerber to win in three at 7/1

Angelique Kerber leads the head-to-head 2-1. Kerber won their last meeting in three thrilling sets at the 2021 Cincinnati Open (their only previous hardcourt meeting). This is really your stereotypical clash of styles.

Ostapenko will look to be aggressive from the outset while Kerber sits back and absorbs the punishment, looking for her chance to counterpunch. These slow conditions should allow Kerber to stay within touching distance and I can foresee an upset here.

Linda Noskova 36/100 | Camila Giorgi 2/1

Linda Noskova shocked the world when she took down World No.1 Iga Swiatek en route to her maiden Grand Slam quarter-final at the Aussie Open. It was a devastating display that saw the 19-year-old Czech match the frenetic, aggressive style of the Pole.

But that result was actually a long time coming. Noskova enjoyed a breakthrough campaign last season, entering the top 40 of the world rankings courtesy of runs to the Adelaide and Prague finals. She started this season with a semi-final run in Brisbane that presaged her giant-killing efforts in Melbourne.

She struggled to come down from the Melbourne high, losing to Sorribes Tormo in the first round in Abu Dhabi. But she beat sevnth seed Maria Sakkari in Qatar before losing a tense three-setter to compatriot Karolina Pliskova.

Sure, almost all of her best results have come on quicker surfaces. But Noskova does have some positive experience in slower conditions, winning the 2021 Girl’s French Open title. She is an ultra-aggressive player who will look to go toe-to-toe with anyone from the baseline. So, I think we can fully expect a blistering encounter as she meets the mercurial Camila Giorgi.

Expect the unexpected when it comes to Giorgi. Oft-accused of focusing more on her modelling and social influencing career, Giorgi is nonetheless a formidable player when everything clicks into place (you can’t win a WTA 1000 title accidentally). And everything certainly clicked into place against San Diego champion Katie Boulter.

She looked slightly nervous on serve in the opening salvos of the match (understandable following four consecutive defeats). But she grew into the game and the Brit ultimately couldn’t handle the power coming from both of Giorgi’s wings.

I was particularly impressed with the way Giorgi hit her backhand in that opener. As I said in the Giorgi-Boulter preview, Giorgi started 2023 in dreadful form before claiming the Merida Open title.

Verdict: Noskova to win in straight sets 9/10

This will be the first career meeting between these two. I think Katie Boulter was really there for the taking in Giorgi’s first match. She had just won her biggest title in San Diego and these courts don’t suit Boulter in the slightest.

I think the Italian will find it much harder against the in-form Noskova. The Czech can match Giorgi’s aggression and I think her consistency of shot could be too much for Giorgi to handle. Noskova also has that French Open junior title, telling me that she can prosper in slower conditions.

Saturday 9 March

Liudmila Samsonova | Naomi Osaka betting tba

14th-seeded Liudmila Samsonova has fast become one of the most dangerous dark horse hardcourt players in women’s tennis. The big-serving Russian rose to prominence by winning three titles in 2022. And she took her game to the next level last year- despite the fact that she didn’t win a title- reaching WTA 1000 finals in Canada and China.

Her massive serve and power allow her to dominate high-calibre opponents on quick surfaces. This year, however, has been a real mixed bag for the Russian. She lost in the first round in her first three consecutive events of the season.

Then she surged back to relevance with a creditable semi-final run at the Abu Dhabi Open. The rollercoaster continued as she faced early exits in Qatar and Dubai. The Russian plays a high-octane brand of tennis that can easily go off the rails from time to time.

She can cough up unforced errors with the best of them and it’s sometimes hard to discern which Samsonova we will be treated to from week to week.

Naomi Osaka finally has something to be encouraged by. The former World No.1 has had well-publicised mental health issues and I think her pregnancy hiatus last year probably gave her some time to reflect on things.

Lest we forget, Osaka is still just 26 years of age. The four-time Grand Slam champion was the dominant hardcourt player in the world and there’s no reason she can’t hit those heights again. Sure, her return to the court was pretty underwhelming (she went 1-3 in her first three tour-level events back).

But something clicked in Qatar, as she beat Garcia and Martic in straight sets before a tight quarter-final defeat to Karolina Pliskova. It feels like her game is trending in the right direction (which was only confirmed by her first-round demolition of Sara Errani earlier this week).

Osaka won her first WTA 1000 title here in 2018 and she will be looking to draw on those positive muscle memories this week. The majority of her success has come on slightly quicker surfaces but she is by no means a one-dimensional, see-ball, hit-ball player.

Verdict: Osaka to win in straight sets

This will be the first career meeting between these two. Samsonova plays her best tennis on really fast surfaces and I think she may struggle against the wily Osaka. Osaka is starting to rediscover her mobility and I think she should progress to the round of 32.

Danyana Yastremska 21/20 | Emma Radacanu 74/100

This looks set to be a fascinating clash between two players intent on not being defined by one Grand Slam performance. 23-year-old Ukrainian Danyana Yastresmka had a very encouraging start to her career, winning three titles between 2018 and 2019.

But she has largely toiled over the last three years and nobody was really thinking of her going into this year’s Aussie Open. But she defied expectations with a herculean semi-final run, beating the likes of Vondrousova and Azarenka in the process.

She is one of the most aggressive players on tour and her inside-out forehand can be extremely destructive. But she does tend to spray the ball when things go awry and she will need to engage in some long rallies on these slower surfaces. Can she marry patience and aggression this fortnight?

This could turn out to be a crucial week for 2021 US Open champion Emma Radacanu. The much-maligned British starlet has once again been criticised for putting commercial concerns ahead of her tennis. She attended the opening of a luxury hotel in Dubai just days before her scheduled first-round match with Kalinina in Doha.

And she would crash out in pretty ignominious fashion to Kalinina, getting bagled in the first set. I do think the Brit will come to a point where she seriously needs to weigh up her priorities. But she bounced back nicely in her first-round match here, taking down the mercurial Masarova in straight sets.

She had brilliant depth on her return and she completely exposed Masarova’s dodgy movement. She played well here last year, reaching the fourth round in one of her best post-US Open performances. That’s why this week is so important: she has crucial rankings points to defend and another early exit would see her plummet further down the world rankings.

Verdict: Radacanu to win in three at 7/2

Radacanu won their only previous meeting when Yastremska was forced to retire in a 2022 meeting. I think this will be a tight encounter with plenty of long rallies.

Radacanu may prefer the longer rallies and could force the Ukrainian into plenty of errors. She was impressive against Masarova and could use that performance as a template against the similarly hard-hitting Yastremska.