PREVIEW: 2024 WTA Tour – Indian Wells Masters semi-finals preview

2024 WTA Tour – WTA 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Semi-finals Preview – 16 March 2024

Iga Swiatek 1/10 | Marta Kostyuk 56/10

Iga Swiatek marched on to what seems like an inevitable final showdown with Coco Gauff after Caroline Wozniacki was forced to retire from their semi-final with a right foot injury. The Dane actually showed surprisingly solid resistance in the first set, taking a 4-1 lead before the Pole reeled off the final five consecutive games to take the set.

Wozniacki’s retirement also spared Swiatek the indignity of having to deal with the swarm of bees that decided to invade the sanctity of Indian Wells. Swiatek is still yet to drop a set this fortnight and it’s going to take a monumental effort to halt her progress.

Swiatek was born for these slow, swirling conditions and this will mark her third consecutive semi-final showing in the desert (she won the title here back in 2022). With Sabalenka ignominiously dumped out by Emma Navarro earlier this week, Swiatek really has the chance to cement her World No.1 status with another Indian Wells title.

I have to admit that I was pretty delighted with Marta Kostyuk’s straight-sets win over Potapova (and not just for the narcissistic reason that I called it). It spares us from having to listen to anymore of Potapova’s hellish grunting. Honestly, she gives Sabalenka’s tortured cries of anguish a run for their money.

Kostyuk’s win propelled her to a maiden WTA 1000 semi-final and continued a brilliant run of 2024 form (she is now 15-4 in completed matches). She pushed Gauff to three sets in their Aussie Open quarter-final and she arrived here hot off the heels of a run to the San Diego final.

She seems to have added some consistency to her attacking brand of tennis. Her serve has been rock-solid this fortnight and her ability to finish off points at the net has helped in these conditions. She didn’t really need to come to the net too often against Potapova (the Russian was absolutely spraying errors from the back of the court).

But Kostyuk’s ability to apply pressure in a number of ways will hopefully give her some confidence going into this match.

Verdict: Swiatek to win in three sets 34/10

Swiatek won their only previous encounter in straight sets at the 2021 French Open. To be fair, the Ukrainian did well to break the Pole twice on her favourite surfaces. I think there’s reason to believe that Kostyuk could be the first woman to nick a set off Swiatek in California this year.

Her ability to hit massive forehands and backhands from unconventional positions will give Swiatek something to think about. She also isn’t afraid to mix things up and this could destabilise the routine-driven Pole. Also, Swiatek hadn’t dropped a set in Dubai before her straight-sets loss to Kalinskaya in the semis.

Still, the Pole is a master in these conditions and she should be able to outlast the ascendant Ukrainian.

Coco Gauff 32/100 | Maria Sakkari 23/10

I don’t know what to really say about Gauff’s quarter-final victory over Yuan. The American coughed up an incredible 17 double-faults but still managed to beat the Chinese in straight sets! That must be rather dispiriting for the Chinese star who was making her first appearance in a WTA 1000 quarter-final.

In any event, it was a Jekyll and Hyde showing from Gauff that definitely would not get the job done against the likes of Swiatek. Still, the win extended her US winning streak to 20 matches and ensured she reached the semi-finals here for the first time in her career.

The win was significant because it made her just the third player in history to reach five WTA 1000 semi-finals before the age of 21 (she won in Cincinnati last year). The reigning US Open champion just needs to tighten up on those serving yips as she comes up against opponents who will be more destructive on return.

I think Maria Sakkari will agree that her comeback win over Navarro- though hardly a thing of beauty- was one of the most important in her career. I know that sounds pretty extreme considering she is a two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist who won her maiden WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara last year.

But she has stated that she hates the cold and for her to come back against home favourite Navarro in these nippy, blustery conditions says something about her character. She held her nerve on serve in the third set, winning 70% of her first-serve points in a seesaw affair.

This will be Sakkari’s 10th WTA 1000 semi-final and her third successive semi-final showing at Indian Wells (she reached the final here back in 2022). She slumped in the Middle East earlier this year and decided to part ways with long-time coach and friend Tom Hill.

She has partnered up with David Witt and perhaps that little shake-up has contributed to this uptick in form. Only Swiatek has reached more WTA 1000 semi-finals than Sakkari since 2022 and this could turn into a wonderful week for the Greek star.

Verdict: Sakkari to win in three sets 6/1

Sakkari leads the head-to-head 4-3. Having said that, Gauff won each of their last two meetings in straight sets. I think that Sakkari is one of the few athletes out there who can match the physicality of Gauff.

This should give her a decent shot of pulling off the upset victory here. She is also a solid returner who could pounce on Gauff’s current uncertainty on delivery.