Sofia Kenin 92/100 | Clara Burel 17/20
Phew, that was a narrow escape. Former Aussie Open champion Sofia Kenin trailed Katie Volynets 5-3 in the final set of her first-round match, actually saving a match-point serving at 5-4 down.
But she managed to somehow claw her way out of that hole to pick up a much-needed victory. This has been an absolutely dreadful campaign for the 2020 Aussie Open champion.
She seemed to have overcome the worst of her injury issues last season, breaking back into the top 30 after a WTA 500 runner-up finish in California and a semifinal run in Guadalajara.
But she came into this event with an abysmal 5-14 record in tour-level matches. That featured a nine-match losing streak. Yikes. Her best result of the season came at Roland Garros, as she managed to hustle her way to a 3rd round finish (losing to Clara Tauson in the round of 32).
Her nerve-jangling win over Katie Volynets broke another five-match losing streak and she will be desperate for back-to-back wins. This is a woman who was ranked as high as 4th in the world and she needs to rediscover her confidence from the baseline.
Clara Burel hasn’t fared much better this year. The 23-year-old Frenchwoman is a two-time Lausanne runner-up who briefly broke into the top 50 in the world at the start of the season. She reached the 3rd round of the Aussie Open, picking up her maiden top-ten victory with a straight-sets win over Jessica Pegula.
She hasn’t completely devolved ala Sofia Kenin since then, picking up quarterfinal finishes in Linz and Strasbourg. But her most recent form has been pretty dire (she came into this event with a 1-6 record in last seven matches).
She was fortunate enough to draw lucky loser Elvina Kalieva in her opener, comfortably seeing off the American 6-3, 6-2. She served well against Kalieva, winning 73% of her first-serve points (serving seven aces in the process).
It was exactly the sort of no-nonsense victory that she needed to alleviate some of those creeping doubts. Burel is a strong mover and has the ability to trade blows with the best.
The Verdict: Burel to win in three 36/10
This will be their first career meeting. Kenin needs to tighten up that serve. She was broken seven times against Volynets (which was heavily abetted by eight double faults).
This could prove to be an edgy match between two players lacking in confidence. At her best, Kenin was a supreme counterpuncher who had the ability to turn defence into attack on a dime. I actually think she may struggle against Burel.
The Frenchwoman served well in her opener and has the movement to bother the American.
Kenin served poorly in her opener and Burel will look to lean into any weak 2nd serves. I can see a three-set match here, with multiple breaks of serve along the way.