Mackenzie McDonald 13/20 | Yoshihito Nishioka 12/10
29-year-old Mackenzie McDonald has really struggled to follow up on his breakthrough 2023 campaign. The American journeyman started last season in pretty incredible fashion, beating (an admittedly injured) Rafa Nadal in the 2nd round of the Aussie Open.
He would then produce a series of solid results, reaching the semifinals of the Delray Beach event before a quarterfinal run in Mexico.
He then reached a maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Toronto (upsetting Andrey Rublev along the way). But McDonald has regressed this season, coming into this event with a dismal 5-13 record for the year. Having said that, a quarterfinal run in last week’s Newport event hinted at some real improvement.
And he seems to have transferred some of that positive juju into his Atlanta campaign, comfortably beating an in-form Brandon Nakashima in straight sets.
These surfaces really suit his flat-hitting style and this week could prove to be a massive confidence booster for him.
Let’s go from one journeyman to another. Ok, maybe it’s slightly harsh to call 28-year-old Yoshihito Nishioka a journeyman. The Japanese hardcourt specialist has never broken into the top 20 in the world but he has managed to reach five ATP Tour finals throughout his career (including a runner-up finish at the ATP 500 event in Washington).
But the durable baseliner has underwhelmed this season, bringing a lacklustre 8-2 record into this event. But he was quite impressive in his opener, crushing nine aces and winning 80% of his first-serve points in a straight-sets win over American Zachary Svajda.
The Verdict: Nishioka to win in straight sets 26/10
This has actually been a really competitive rivalry, with Nishioka currently owning a 4-2 head-to-head advantage over the American. Having said that, McDonald did win their previous meeting in Delray Beach last season.
I just think that Nishioka’s head-to-head superiority could come to the fore in this match. I also can’t look past his mega-serving performance against Svadja. Crushing nine aces in your first match speaks to someone who feels completely comfortable on these surfaces.