The Chengdu Open continues this week as J.C. Shang faces Kei Nishikori while Borna Coric goes up against Aleksandar Vukic in the semi-finals. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – ATP 250
Chengdu Open
Sichuan International Tennis Centre
Selected RO 16 matches – 19 September
J.C. Shang 52/100 | Kei Nishikori 29/20
This promises to be a fascinating first-round clash between two different generations of Asian tennis talent. 19-year-old Shang Juncheng appears to have the tennis world at his feet. He has enjoyed a really solid campaign, reaching his maiden ATP Tour semifinals in Hong Kong and Atlanta (beating the likes of Frances Tiafoe and Ben Shelton in the process).
He has also proven to be a stubborn Grand Slam competitor at this early stage of his career, reaching the 3rd round of this year’s Aussie and US Opens (both on hardcourts).
Shang comes from an athletic family- his mom was a world-champion table tennis star and his father was a national football player. He has turned up the aggression this year and now fits squarely into the mould of your typical contemporary player.
He is far more aggressive from the back of the court, often stepping inside the baseline to put pressure on his opponents. He is a tremendous athlete who makes his opponent work for every single point.
You must admire the sheer determination of former US Open runner-up Kei Nishikori. The 34-year-old Japanese star has been dogged by injury throughout his career and many believed that his recent hip surgery would be the final nail in his professional coffin.
But he defied the odds earlier this season, returning to action after a nearly two-year hiatus. And there have been some signs of progress for the veteran baseliner. He won a match at the French Open (his first Grand Slam win since the US Open in 2021).
But his most impressive showing came in Montreal, where he beat the likes of Tsitsipas and Michelson to reach his first ATP quarterfinal in over a year (and first Masters 1000 quarterfinal in five years).
He reached the quarterfinal at the Challenger event in Genoa last time out, going down to Munar in a gruelling three-set match. He is starting to rediscover a bit of match fitness and he cannot be underestimated this week.
The Verdict: Shang to win in straight sets 12/10
Nishikori actually won their only previous encounter, taking down the young Chinese star in straight sets at last year’s Atlanta Open. I think that Shang has developed into a much more complete player since they met in Atlanta last year.
His recent Grand Slam showings indicate true progression and I think his aggressive style will be too much for the more defensively-minded Nishikori. Nishikori has struggled with reoccurrences of injuries this season and may struggle with Shang’s athleticism.
Borna Coric 66/100 | Aleksandar Vukic 23/20
Borna Coric is a real head-scratcher. The 27-year-old Croat burst onto the scene all the way back in 2018, finishing runner-up at the Shanghai Masters.
Yet the ultra-defensive baseliner has only gone on to win three titles in his career. One of them came as he returned after an extensive injury hiatus, winning the 2022 Cincinnati Open to become the lowest-ranked player in history to win a Masters 1000 event. He once again showed his ability to produce in huge events at last season’s Madrid Open, reaching a maiden Masters 1000 clay-court semifinal. And he went on to reach a 9th career final at this year’s Open Sud de France, losing to Alexander Bublik.
His season has gone rather stagnant since then (though his recent quarterfinal run at the Winston-Salem Open did offer some signs of encouragement). This is a man who bears the distinction of beating both Nadal and Federer on multiple occasions. I just think he is perhaps slightly too defensive at times and far too inconsistent.
28-year-old Aleksandar Vukic has been something of a journeyman pro throughout his professional career. But the Aussie has made some solid strides in the last 18 months or so.
He reached his maiden ATP Tour final at last year’s Atlanta Open (going down to Taylor Fritz in the final). He hasn’t reached a final this year but has got to the quarterfinal stage or better on four separate occasions. He was particularly efficient on grass, reaching the semifinals in Eastbourne (to go with quarterfinal runs in Rosmalen and Newport).
Vukic has also lost many first-round matches this season and it’s hard to really get a gauge on him. His game is built around a powerful serve and aggressive baseline play. He just needs to keep his first-serve percentage up and minimize his errors, as Coric will fiendishly look to keep everything in play.
The Verdict: Vukic to win in three 38/10
Vukic won their only previous meeting, taking down the Croat in straight sets at last year’s Canadian Open. This should be an intriguing encounter, with the aggressive Vukic coming head-to-head with the defensive Coric.
I think that Vukic has a chance of pulling off another upset here. He looked solid at Winston-Salem and his brand of first-strike tennis could overwhelm the craftier Croat.
