Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
The South African sides return this weekend for the penultimate round of pool clashes, with the Sharks still leading the local conference, but having had their spot on top of the overall standings snatched up by the Waratahs in their absence. The Brumbies sit this one out and, having lost to the Waratahs last week, will watch as fate has its way with their playoff aspirations. There are nine sides still in contention, with only six spots open and two weeks remaining to determine who gets them. Things are about to heat up even more.
Chiefs vs Hurricanes | Friday 04 July | Waikato Stadium | 09:35
The Hurricanes run out for their final pool clash of the season hoping to do enough against the underperforming Chiefs to secure an extended run in this year’s title race.
To Win (80mins)
Chiefs 13/20
Hurricanes 13/10
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Chiefs (-2.5) 9/10
Hurricanes (+2.5) 9/10
The Chiefs have made extensive changes to their backline this week, with only Aaron Cruden and Tom Marshall remaining in the run on side. Fresh faces in the starting XV include Charlie Ngatai, Tim Nanai-Williams, James Lowe, Asaeli Tikoirotuma and Tawera Kerr-Barlow. The only change to the forward pack sees Jamie Mackintosh taking over from Pauliasi Manu in the front row. The Hurricanes will be without the likes of Victor Vito, Alapati Leiua, Faifili Levave and captain Conrad Smith for their final clash of the regular season. Hadleigh Parkes will again team up with Tim Bateman in the midfield, while Jack Lam starts at flanker where he joins Ardie Savea and Brad Shields in the loose trio.
VERDICT: Hurricanes 13/10
The Chiefs suffered their third consecutive defeat last week, going down 29-25 in Dunedin to the Highlanders, dropping the reigning champs to the bottom of the Kiwi conference. The Hurricanes, on the other hand, pulled off an impressive 16-9 victory over the Crusaders, their second victory this season over the most decorated side in the competition’s history. The Hurricanes are just playing superior rugby at the moment, and with the Chiefs continuously reshuffling their backline I can’t see their fortunes changing anytime soon.
Lions vs Rebels | Friday 04 July | Ellis Park | 19:10
The Lions will be hoping to claim their sixth win of the season this week by taking down the Rebels without a cause.
To Win (80mins)
Lions 9/20
Rebels 18/10
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Lions (-5.5) 9/10
Rebels (+5.5) 9/10
Lock Franco van der Merwe has recovered from his ankle injury to return for the Lions this week, taking over from Rudi Mathee in the second row. In other changes, Deon van Rensburg and Anthony Volmink take over from Courtnall Skosan and Chrysander Botha. The Rebels have made four changes to the side that went down to the Reds in Melbourne. Hugh Pyle returns to run on side, joining Shota Horie and Scott Fuglistaller in the three changes to the Rebels’ forward pack. Just one change to the backline with Tom Kingston set to start out on the wing.
VERDICT: Lions (-5.5) 9/10
The Lions secured an impressive 32-21 victory over the Bulls in their last outing, while the Rebels gave the Reds their first win since March last week. So, judging by recent form, the Lions, with home ground advantage, should have enough to take the tourists this Friday.
Crusaders vs Blues | Saturday 05 July | AMI Stadium | 09:35
The Blues travel south to take on the Crusaders this week, hoping to finally end their 10-year win drought down in Christchurch.
To Win (80mins)
Crusaders 7/20
Blues 23/10
Draw 30/1
Handicaps
Crusaders (-7.5) 9/10
Blues (+7.5) 9/10
The Crusaders are leaving little to chance this week, needing to bounce back from last weekend’s try-less performance against the Hurricanes. That means we see a star-studded line-up that includes the likes of Dan Carter, Kieran Read, Israel Dagg and Nemani Nadolo taking to the field this week, although Carter will start at inside centre as Colin Slade is retained at flyhalf despite his less than convincing performance there last week. The Blues have made only one change to their starting line-up with Charles Piutau returning from injury to replace George Moala in the wing. Hooker Mealamu claims his 150th Blues cap this weekend.
VERDICT: Crusaders (-7.5) 9/10
The Crusaders run out with a powerful side this week chasing a top-two finish, so I expect an explosive attacking game from the home side which will see them clearing the 7.5 handicap easily.
Force vs Reds | Saturday 05 July | NIB Stadium | 11:40
The Reds head for Perth looking to spoil the Force’s chances of earning their first ever spot in the play-offs.
To Win (80mins)
Force 7/10
Reds 5/4
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Force (-2.5) 9/10
Reds (+2.5) 9/10
The home team will be happy they’ve regained the services of speedster Nick “Honey Badger” Cummins this week after losing him late in last week’s preparations for the Blues. Ian Prior and Zack Holmes form a new half-back pairing for the Force this week. The Reds have made three changes to their side, with centre Samu Kerevi making his starting debut for Queensland. Injuries continue to cripple the Reds with Greg Holmes, Dom Shipperley and Anthony Fainga’a now joining the likes of Quade Cooper, Will Genia, Aidan Toua and Eddie Quirk in the injured section of the stands.
VERDICT: Force (-2.5) 9/10
The return of the Honey Badger should be enough for the home side to overcome their injury-crippled opponents this week.
Stormers vs Bulls | Saturday 05 July | Newlands | 17:05
With no promise of a playoff spot for either of these two underperforming sides this clash in the Cape is hardly going to set new records for spectator attendance.
To Win (80mins)
Stormers 13/20
Bulls 13/10
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Stormers (-3.5) 9/10
Bulls (+3.5) 9/10
The Stormers have made six changes to the side that upset the Sharks down in Durban before the break. Schalk Burger will captain the side this week, while featherweight Gio Aplon starts on the wing, making his first appearance since picking up an elbow injury back in March. Juan de Jongh shifts to inside centre this week to accommodate the experimental inclusion on Sailosi Tagicakibau at outside centre. The Bulls threw away their chances of featuring in the knockout stages this season by failing to overcome the Lions at Ellis Park in their last outing. They have yet to win on the road this season, which has undoubtedly been the cause of their dire showing this year, making their chances of coming away with the win this Saturday even less likely.
VERDICT: Stormers (-3.5) 9/10
The Stormers have shown a remarkable improvement in form over the past few rounds, winning five of their last seven clashes. They are notoriously resilient at home, and judging on current form the visitors are in for a tough day at the track.
Cheetahs vs Sharks | Saturday 05 July | Vodacom Park | 19:10
The Sharks need to bounce back from their shattering home defeat to the Stormers a few weeks back with a convincing victory in Bloemfontein to keep the pressure on the Waratahs at the top of the table.
To Win (80mins)
Cheetahs 23/10
Sharks 7/20
Draw 30/1
Handicaps
Cheetahs (+7.5) 9/10
Sharks (-7.5) 9/10
The Cheetahs have named a full strength side for this week’s clash, deciding against resting their returning Springboks. Sensational fullback Willie le Roux, lock Lood de Jager and speedster Cornal Hendricks are a few of the big names returning to the run on side this week as the Cheetahs attempt to save face at the end of an unforgiving Super Rugby Season. Tim Swiel starts for the Sharks at flyhalf this week as the coastal franchise makes several rotational changes for their clash with the Cheetahs. There will be six Springboks on the Sharks’ bench this week as Jake White aims to rest a few of the lads returning from the gruelling June Test window, allowing the likes of Dale Chadwick, Kyle Cooper and Lourens Adriaanse a start this week.
VERDICT: Sharks (-7.5) 9/10
The Sharks have it all to play for and the Cheetahs have failed to offer much resistance to any side this season despite the impressive amount of talent at their disposal.
Waratahs vs Highlanders | Sunday 06 July | Allianz Stadium | 08:05
On Sunday we get to finally find out what happens when an immovable object meets an unstoppable force as the two in-form sides of the competition, both coming off impressive victories in the last round, look to cement their spots as high up in the top six as possible.
To Win (80mins)
Waratahs 3/10
Highlanders 27/10
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Waratahs (-8.5) 9/10
Highlanders (+8.5) 9/10
The Waratahs have named former Brumbies skipper Stephen Hoiles to replace Dave Dennis on the blindside flank this weekend in the only change to the forward pack. Ben Robinson becomes the most capped prop in Waratahs history this week as he picks up his 131st cap, teaming up with Sekope Kepu and Tatafu Polota in the Waratahs front row. Highlanders head coach Jamie Joseph has retained his run on side from last week’s hard-fought victory over defending champions the Chiefs. Currently sitting in fourth spot on the overall log, tied on points with the Kiwi conference-leading Crusaders, the Highlanders know just how important their last two matches of the regular season are. Expect a similar balls-to-the-wall performance from the tourists, akin to last weekend’s Forsyth Barr clash.
VERDICT: Highlanders (+8.5) 9/10
Too close to call, but if home ground advantage is going to swing the match it isn’t going to be by much, so the Highlanders shouldn’t have a hard time staying within the handicap if they do go down.
