Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Not a great week for the South African sides in the last round, with only the Cheetahs avoiding defeat in a 43-43 draw against the Chiefs in Bloemfontein. The Sharks enjoyed their second and final bye of the competition, but retain their lead on the overall standings, two points clear of the second-placed Brumbies. The middle of the table remains as fiercely contested as ever, with just five points separating third and eleventh spot.
Highlanders vs Bulls | Friday 11 April | Forsyth Barr Stadium | 09:35
Despite their poor showing this year, the Bulls currently occupy the final wild card spot at the moment. However, the Highlanders will be aiming to appropriate that coveted top six place from the troubled tourists this Friday.
To Win (80mins)
Highlanders 5/10
Bulls 7/4
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Highlanders (-5.5) 1/1
Bulls (+4.5) 1/1
The Bulls put in a commendable fight last week against the ‘Canes, only to have the life squeezed out of them in the dying minutes. This week, 122-cap veteran Victor Matfield returns due to injuries in the squad, while a late injury to Akona Ndungane has Piet van Zyl starting at number nine, with Francois Hougaard moving to wing. Werner Kruger claims his century of Super Rugby caps this week. To match the wealth of experience Victor Matfield has brought into the Bulls second row, the Highlanders have named Brad Thorn to start at Forsyth Barr Stadium this Friday. With Kurt Baker out for six weeks after due to an illegal tackle in the Rebels match, Patrick Osborne starts out on the wing this week.
VERDICT: Bulls 7/4
The Bulls fare better against sides that attack more from the back than up front, and the Highlanders are one of those sides that like to spread the ball out wide when going for the points. Should be close, but the Bulls look more effective against the Highlanders style of play than they do against that of the ‘Canes last week.
Reds vs Brumbies | Friday 11 April | Suncorp Stadium | 11:40
With the Reds now having slipped all the way down to eleventh on the log following their shock defeat to the Force last week, the Brumbies have the perfect opportunity to extinguish any hopes the Reds have of winning the Aussie conference by claiming a victory in Queensland this Friday.
To Win (80mins)
Reds 12/10
Brumbies 15/20
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Reds (+1.5) 9/10
Brumbies (-1.5) 9/10
It was a poor game plan that defeated the Reds last week, kicking away far too much possession against an opportunistic Force side. They have their backs against the wall, which could just give them the edge they need to get things back on track this week. Richard Graham has made two changes with Chris Feauai-Sautia returning to the wing and Anthony Fainga’a starting at inside centre. The Aussie-conference leading Brumbies head into Queensland off the back of a resounding 17-point victory over the Blues. They have beefed up their forward pack for this week’s clash with the inclusion of Wallabies Stephen Moore and Scott Sio, and have named uncapped 19-year-old Tom Staniforth to start in the second row.
VERDICT: Reds 12/10
This could prove to be the last chance saloon for the fiery Reds. When they weren’t giving away possession last week they showed they still have the lethal attacking flair that has proven irrepressible for some sides this season, including the Brumbies in their opening clash in Round 2. The Reds by 5-10.
Chiefs vs Rebels | Saturday 11 April | Waikato Stadium | 09:35
The Chiefs return home from an unfortunately unforgettable overseas stint to face a side that has yet to win outside of Australia. How many times in Super Rugby history has a team drawn two games in a row? Never, until the Chiefs visited South Africa.
To Win (80mins)
Chiefs 1/7
Rebels 11/2
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Chiefs (-13.5) 9/10
Rebels (+13.5) 9/10
The Chiefs remain in pole in the Kiwi Conference despite having not secured a victory since the fifth round of clashes. They have shown their true grit, having pulled off two mammoth second half turnarounds in South Africa, but unfortunately both resulted in draws. With Aaron Cruden out with injury, Gareth Anscombe claims his long awaited return to flyhalf, a position he last played in a 2012 pre-season clash against the Highlanders. Liam Messam takes a backseat this week, dropping to the bench with Kane Thompson starting at eight. Brodie Retallick will skipper the side this Saturday. The Rebels went down by a narrow three points to the Highlanders last week, but managed to sneak past the Brumbies the week before, so they really are impossible to gauge. Their away form is notoriously poor in this competition, but I suppose that will have to end eventually. Two changes to their side this week, with Colby Fainga’a and Tom Kingston both returning from injuries.
VERDICT: Chiefs (-13.5) 9/10
If the Chiefs can get the engine going a bit earlier than the second half, there is no reason they can’t blast past this weak Aussie opposition. They return home and will be looking to justify their spot on the top of the Kiwi Conference. The Chiefs by 15.
Force vs Waratahs | Saturday 12 April | NIB Stadium | 11:40
With a record-breaking fourth-consecutive-victory secured last week against the Reds, the Force will be looking to make it five on the trot by crushing the side that opened up the season with a telling 22-point victory over them in New South Wales.
To Win (80mins)
Force 19/10
Waratahs 9/20
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Force (+5.5) 9/10
Waratahs (-5.5) 9/10
The Force trail the Waratahs by a mere two points on the overall standings as the fight for the wildcard spots intensifies this week. Having made their greatest start to a Super Rugby season, the Force have made only one change to their side this week, with South African Marcel Brache getting his first start. The Waratahs have named a new-look back three this week with the return of Israel Folau, Rob Horne and Cam Crawford on the wings. Kurtley Beale returns to inside centre to join up with Adam Ashley-Cooper once again.
VERDICT: Waratahs (-5.5) 9/10
The Waratahs have been up and down this season, but remain a competitive side in this year’s competition. The Force have had a good run, but it can’t go on forever. The visitors by 7.
Cheetahs vs Crusaders | Saturday 12 April | Vodacom Park | 17:05
The Cheetahs will be hoping to secure only their second win of the competition when they take on the inconsistent Crusaders in Bloemfontein this week.
To Win (80mins)
Cheetahs 29/20
Crusaders 6/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Cheetahs (+4.5) 9/10
Crusaders (-4.5) 9/10
The Cheetahs were unlucky in finishing with a draw against the reigning champions last week after managing to end the first half with 24-point lead. They haven’t pulled off a victory since the second week of clashes; nonetheless Cheetahs head coach Naka Drotske has decided to leave his team unchanged this week. Crusaders captain Kieran Read returns to the starting lineup, replacing Luke Whitelock who returns home with a knee injury. In the front row Corey Flynn starts ahead of Ben Funnell and Nepo Laulala starts at tighthead ahead of Owen Franks.
VERDICT: Crusaders (-4.5) 9/10
The Crusaders pulled off a convincing win over the Lions last week, despite a slightly shaky start. The Cheetahs showed some moments of brilliance, but the Crusaders are a far superior side that has won three of their last four clashes. The Crusaders by 7.
Lions vs Sharks | Saturday 12 April | Ellis Park | 19:10
The table-topping Sharks head for the Highveld looking to extend their lead on the overall standings.
To Win (80mins)
Lions 29/10
Sharks 3/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Lions (+7.5) 9/10
Sharks (-7.5) 9/10
The Sharks have named an unchanged run on side, but have included Paul Jordaan on the bench as he returns from injury. His inclusion on the bench comes at the cost of Hemar Williams, and makes up the only change to the 23-man squad that took down the Waratahs two weeks ago in a heated contest in Durban. The Lions will be hoping to return to winning ways this weekend after going down to the Crusaders last week, and will know what they are up against having already suffered a 14-point loss to the Sharks in Round 4. Only one change to the Lions starting XV, with Derick Minnie starting at flank, as Jaco Kriel drops to the bench.
VERDICT: Sharks (-7.5) 9/10
The Sharks should be well rested, having enjoyed their second bye last week. The Lions have had a few lucky breaks this season, but when really tested against stronger opposition, like the Crusaders last week, they offer little resistance. The Sharks by 10.
Think we’ve got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this is going to play out.
