Written by @QuintenLetcher for @Hollywoodbets. Follow them both on Twitter and Facebook now!
Round 7 had an interesting impact on the Super Rugby standings, with a mere five points now separating the Hurricanes in tenth and the Brumbies and Chiefs in joint second. The competition remains wide open as we creep closer and closer towards the halfway mark. The table topping Sharks are the only side to sit this round out, but thanks to the six point lead they’ve built up so far this season they’ll retain pole position going into Round 9 regardless of what transpires this weekend.
Highlanders vs Rebels | Friday 04 April | Forsyth Barr Stadium | 08:35
The Rebels, exuding confidence following their shock victory over the Brumbies, head for New Zealand with hopes of securing their first ever Super Rugby win outside of Australian borders.
To Win (80mins)
Highlanders 1/3
Rebels 26/10
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Highlanders (-7.5) 9/10
Rebels (+7.5) 9/10
Following their 18-point loss to the Blues last week, the Highlanders need to make home ground advantage count this Friday to remain in contention for a top six finish. Shaun Treeby and Kurt Baker make their return to the backline this week, while up front Kane Hames’ suspension sees Chris King shifting over to loosehead and Ma’afu Fia starting at tighthead. This Dunedin clash also sees Aaron Smith collecting his 50th Super Rugby cap for the Highlanders. The Rebels will be pinning all their hopes on fullback Jason Woodward, who made a vibrant return for them last week, steering his side to a 32-24 point victory over the Brumbies in Melbourne. His impressive 27-point contribution set a new club record for the inconsistent Rebels, but will also have singled him out as a target for the Highlanders this week.
VERDICT: Highlanders (-7.5) 9/10
The Highlanders should bounce back strongly at home this week against the notoriously poor travellers. The Highlanders by 10.
Brumbies vs Blues | Friday 04 April | Canberra Stadium | 10:40
The Blues head into the Australian capital looking to secure their first away win of the season, but with the Aussie table-topping Brumbies coming off a humiliating loss to the Rebels, I don’t see them being the most accommodating of hosts.
To Win (80mins)
Brumbies 9/20
Blues 2/1
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Brumbies (-5.5) 9/10
Blues (+5.5) 9/10
The Brumbies looked set for their fifth-consecutive victory last week after Jesse Mogg crashed over the whitewash in the opening minutes against the Rebels. Up until the end of the first quarter in Melbourne, the Brumbies were dominating in both possession and territory. But all it took was a ten minute lull in concentration in the second half, that resulted in the carding of Scott Fardy for obstruction and two tries for the Rebels, for the Brumbies to throw away their 17-12 lead. They had an off day, but were far from appalling, so the Blues shouldn’t read too much into the shock defeat. Blues coach Sir John Kirwan will be pleased with his side’s 30-12 victory over the Highlanders, but knows they’ll miss out on the playoffs unless they start winning on the road. The Blues received a boost to their attacking options with All Black Francis Saili returning from injury to take a place on the bench.
VERDICT: Brumbies (-5.5) 9/10
The Brumbies burnt their fingers last week, but they sure as hell won’t be caught napping two weeks in a row. They need this victory to ensure they remain on top of the Aussie conference, and to narrow the gap between them and the Sharks, who have a bye this round. They will be pulling out all the stops in an attempt to secure maximum points, so expect a high scoring game in Canberra. The Brumbies by 7-12.
Hurricanes vs Bulls | Saturday 05 April | McLean Park | 08:35
The Hurricanes surprised us all when they arm wrestled a victory out of a hapless Crusaders outfit last week, claiming a precious bonus point along the way. With only five points now separating them and the Kiwi-conference leading Chiefs, the ‘Canes can substantially improve their chances of reaching the playoffs by denying the Bulls a winning start to their away leg.
To Win (80mins)
Hurricanes 11/20
Bulls 16/10
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Hurricanes (-5.5) 9/10
Bulls (+5.5) 9/10
The Hurricanes claimed only their second victory of the season by outplaying seven-time champions the Crusaders in a chaotic second half in Christchurch last week. While wins may have evaded the side from Wellington for much of this season, bonus points have not been as shy, with last week’s four-try sweetener taking them up to four this season. Forwards Victor Vito and Brad Shields make their first appearances, while the backline is bolstered by the return of All Black flyer Cory Jane. The Bulls kick off their tour this week, probably feeling a little unlucky with their draw against the Chiefs in Pretoria last Saturday. The Bulls had the game all but wrapped up at 31-15 as the match entered the last quarter, but the Chiefs pulled off one of the most exhilarating comebacks I’ve ever seen, firing through three tries in the last ten minutes to tie up the scores at 34-a-piece at the sound of the whistle. Bulls coach Frans Ludeke has named returning Flip van der Merwe as captain this week, as Springbok veteran Victor Matfield reverts to his coaching role on tour, only to pull on the togs if disaster strikes.
VERDICT: Bulls 16/10
The Bulls have been building some decent momentum with this young side, and if I’m going to throw my money on an upset this week it’ll be here. The Bulls by 3.
Reds vs Force | Saturday 05 April | Suncorp Stadium | 10:40
Not traditionally a fixture that would demand much interest, but with the Force heading into Queensland poised to claim their maiden fourth consecutive upset, I mean victory, it just might be worth a watch.
To Win (80mins)
Reds 1/3
Force 26/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Reds (-7.5) 9/10
Force (+7.5) 9/10
Following a forgettable South African tour, worsened by Stuart Berry’s presence during the Lions game, it only seemed right for the Reds to return to winning ways with a home victory over the long-suffering Stormers in Queensland. Will Genia seems to be returning to his old menacing ways, displaying the confidence and passion that were once trademarks of the Wallaby scrum-half but have been absent for too long. With the incorrigible Quade Cooper wheel spinning behind him, the Reds could still claw their way to Super Rugby glory this season. The Force head into this game after a week off, hoping to build on their impressive form that has secured victories over the Rebels, Highlanders, and Chiefs so far this season. They managed to pull off a 19-12 upset at Suncorp last season, so they won’t be giving too much weight to the home ground advantage. But with consistency a word yet to be used to describe the Force, they would be better off coming into this game on a three-match losing streak.
VERDICT: Reds (-7.5) 9/10
The Reds have had a few unfortunate results, but remain one of the more lethal attacking sides in the competition. And with the longstanding feud between these two sides, you can be assured the home side will be looking for blood this Saturday. The Reds by 10.
Cheetahs vs Chiefs | Saturday 05 April | Vodacom Park | 15:00
The Cheetahs run out at home for the first time since their Round 2 victory over the Bulls, but following a disastrous away leg, the home side has only pride to play for this week in Bloemfontein, which probably won’t be enough against the reigning champs.
To Win (80mins)
Cheetahs 22/10
Chiefs 4/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Cheetahs (+6.5) 9/10
Chiefs (-6.5) 9/10
The Cheetahs sat out of the action last week, but following their campaign-crippling tour of Australasia, a weeks rest probably isn’t enough for the beleaguered Bloemfontein side. Having made themselves at home in the bottom spot on the log, the Cheetahs will be aiming for damage control from here on in. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have miraculously held onto top spot in the Kiwi conference despite their mixed bag of results this season. They showed an enormous amount of resilience last week by fighting their way back from a 16-point deficit with less than twenty minutes on the clock. If they play the full eighty minutes at that intensity this week, the Cheetahs are going to be butchered.
VERDICT: Cheetahs (+6.5) 9/10
This promises to be a high scoring affair, but the Chiefs are a far stronger side and so should sneak a narrow victory in Bloemfontein. The Cheetahs are a tough side at home though and I’m backing them to cover the ‘cap.
Lions vs Crusaders | Saturday 05 April | Ellis Park | 17:05
The outrageously overachieving Lions take on the ominously underperforming Crusaders in a game reserved only for the bravest of punters.
To Win (80mins)
Lions 19/10
Crusaders 9/20
Draw 28/1
Handicaps
Lions (+5.5) 9/10
Crusaders (-5.5) 9/10
The Lions return to the action after a bye in Round 7 with a clash against the competition’s most successful team, at probably the most opportune time. The Lions have had a remarkable start to the season considering they spent a year out in the relegation wilderness, having pulled off shock victories over the likes of the Blues and the Reds so far. The Crusaders have not been as fortunate, and find themselves at the bottom of the New Zealand conference and desperately needing an away victory this week to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’ve taken a knock with the loss of All Black lock Luke Romano, but they’ll be relieved that captain Kieran Read has been cleared to play after he left the field early against the Hurricanes last week.
VERDICT: Crusaders (-5.5) 9/10
The Crusaders could very well benefit from being on the road, away from the relentless Kiwi press, and have proven on many occasions they can handle their own on tour. The visitors by 10.
Stormers vs Waratahs | Saturday 05 April | Newlands | 19:10
The Waratahs head for the Mother City hoping to turn their South African tour around following their defeat in Durban last week. And with the Stormers returning winless from a brutal four match away leg, they certainly look ripe for the taking.
To Win (80mins)
Stormers 8/10
Waratahs 11/10
Draw 25/1
Handicaps
Stormers (-1.5) 9/10
Waratahs (+1.5) 9/10
The Stormers will be feeling slightly fatigued, having just made the trip back from their gruelling tour out East, but feature a few fresh feet in the starting XV. They run out with a new captain as Jean de Villiers sits out with a meniscal cyst. Duane Vermeulen will skipper the side, with Damian de Allende filling in at inside centre for de Villiers. Jaco Taute starts at fullback in place of the injured Gio Aplon, with Michael van der Spuy providing cover on the bench. The Waratahs side will also feature a few changes following their overly physical loss to the Sharks last week. Rob Horne picked up a suspension, leaving Matt Carraro as Michael Cheika’s likely choice on the wing as Alofa Alofa’s fitness seems unlikely. Wycliff Palu also looks to be out of contention as he battles with an ankle injury, which could see Dave Dennis moving to eighthman and Jacques Potgieter coming into the back row.
VERDICT: Waratahs 11/10
The Stormers have an impeccable home record, but will be running low on fuel having just returned from their away leg. The Waratahs are a better side than they let on in Durban. If they can keep their composure out in the middle this week then the points are theirs for the taking. The Waratahs by less than seven.
Think we’ve got it wrong? Well leave your comments below and tell us how you think this is going to play out.
