PREVIEW: Super Rugby 2024 – Round 11

The Crusaders’ quest for a play-off berth is in dire straits but they do come up against a team who occupies the final play-off berth and is only six points off them this weekend in the form of the Highlanders.

Other crucial Round 12 Super Rugby fixtures see the Blues and Hurricanes square off in a top-of-the-table clash, while the Reds and Rebels square off in a mid-table Aussie derby.

Friday 10 May

Moana Pasifika 14/1 | Draw 40/1 | Chiefs 1/100 (09:05)

Handicap
Moana Pasifika (+27.5) 9/10 | Chiefs (-27.5) 9/10

First up, we’ve got a fixture that could have a massive bearing on both the home play-off berths as well as who grabs the last few play-off places with the fourth-placed Chiefs taking on ninth-placed Moana Pasifika in Auckland.

The pseudo-hosts – they only had one true home game this year at that came last weekend when they played the Highlanders in Tonga – for Saturday are three points adrift of the final play-off berth and have a tough fixture list to contend with following this tie as they play the Hurricanes, Waratahs and Crusaders in the final three rounds of the regular season.

Moana Pasifika gave a decent account of themselves against Kiwi opposition this past weekend going down 17-28 to the Highlanders in atrocious conditions. While they did stretch the Highlanders in open play, their woes at lineout time routinely scuppered their momentum.

While Moana Pasifika lost their seventh game of the season this past weekend, the Chiefs registered their seventh win as they tore apart the Force 56-7 in one of the most one-sided fixtures we have seen this term.

In terms of team news for Saturday’s encounter, the Chiefs have opted to rest All Black start Damien McKenzie with young prospect Josh Jacomb filling McKenzie’s boots at pivot, while Moana Pasifika have freshened things up by handing debuts to centre Lalomilo Lalomilo and reserve scrumhalf Siaosi Nginingini.

Verdict: Chiefs (-27.5) 9/10

While Moana Pasifika will be relieved not to see Damien McKenzie on the team sheet after the way he tore their defence up in Round 4, I still reckon they will struggle against this stacked Cheifs outfit.

Reds 1/8 | Draw 33/1 | Rebels 5/1 (11:35)

Handicap
Reds (-14.5) 9/10 | Rebels (+14.5) 9/10

We cross the Tasman for an Aussie derby with the fifth-placed Reds taking on the sixth-placed Rebels. A win for either side would all but assure them a quarter-final berth, so there is a hell of a lot riding on this one.

The Reds made it two solid showings against two Kiwi sides as they followed up their ‘Golden Point’ defeat at the hands of the Blues with a 33-28 win over the Crusaders. While this isn’t exactly a vintage ‘Saders outfit, the Reds were still good value for the win with their attacking looking extremely dangerous on turnover ball. And while their defence was leaky at times, they did front up in the final six minutes when the Crusaders were throwing everything at them.

While the Reds managed to get a win against Kiwi opposition in Round 11, the Rebels had no such luck as they went down 11-38 to the Blues in Melbourne. It was their second successive big loss to New Zealand opposition as they had gone down 39-0 to the Crusaders the week prior.

The visitors for Friday’s clash have named the same starting forward pack for the fixture but tweaked the backline somewhat with Nick Jooste and Filipo Daugunu getting starts in the centres. On the Reds side of things, they’ve got some real firepower on the bench with James O’Connor set to make his long-awaited return along with Wallaby nine Tate McDermott.

Verdict: Reds (-14.5) 9/10

I reckon that bench is going to cause the Rebels all sorts of problems in the final quarter of this fixture and I can see the hosts running away with the game late in the second stanza.

Saturday 11 May

Blues 6/10 | Draw 20/1 | Hurricanes 14/10 (06:35)

Handicap
Blues (-3.5) 9/10 | Hurricanes (+3.5) 9/10

It’s the clash of the weekend next up with the second-placed Blues playing host to the log-leading Hurricanes in what should be an absolutely belting derby clash. Only a single log point separates these two sides, who have only lost a game apiece this term.

The hosts head into this one off the back of yet another polished display as they claimed the full five-point haul in Melbourne, beating the Rebels 11-38. All Blacks winger Mark Telea was once again lethal with ball-in-hand as he bagged a brace while the rest of the Blues tries came from close-range carries.

Speaking of All Blacks, veteran Kiwi scrum-half TJ Perrana rounded out the scoring in a big win for the ‘Canes with the log-leaders responding brilliantly to their Round 10 eight-point defeat to the Brumbies with a 41-12 bonus point win over the Waratahs. While Perranara had the final say, it was the Hurricanes’ young guns who stole the show with starting nine Richard Judd and fullback Ruben Love both having blinders.

Moving onto team news now, and the visitors have channelled their inner Springbok, opting for a 6-2 split on the bench. There’s also a slew of changes to the side with Xavier Numia, Caleb Delany, Brad Shields, TJ Perenara, Kini Naholo, Jordie Barrett all returning to the run on XV. On the Blues side of things, All Blacks centre Rieko Ioane is out due to concussion which means AJ Lam gets a start at 13, while Zarn Sullivan returns from injury and moves straight into the fullback berth.

Verdict: Hurricanes (+3.5) 9/10

I think the Hurricanes’ 6-2 option is smart and will mitigate the Blues’ dominance around the ruck. I reckon this one will be a tight old affair and while the handicap is slim, I’ll be taking the ‘Canes on the plus.

Highlanders 24/10 | Draw 20/1 | Crusaders 7/20 (09:05)

Handicap
Highlanders (+7.5) 9/10 | Crusaders (-7.5) 9/10

We’ve got our second Kiwi derby of the day next up as the Highlanders and Crusaders lock horns, and with both sides desperate to sneak into the quarter-finals mix, this one could get spicy. Of the two sides, the Highlanders are in a more commanding position on the log as they lie in seventh place but they are only six points ahead of the Crusaders who sit in tenth.

The Crusaders’ short-lived renaissance ended last weekend as they were unable to back up their 39-0 Round 10 win over the Rebels as they went down 28-33 at home to the Reds. They once again played in fits at starts, allowing the Reds to build up an early lead before hitting back. They then did the same in the second stanza but couldn’t overturn the Reds’ lead, having to settle for a losing bonus point from the fixture.

While the ‘Saders lost their eighth fixture of the campaign, the Highlanders were enjoying a much-needed rest week. They had been in decent enough touch before their week off, edging the Force 7-6 in Round 9 and then beating Moana Pasifika 17-28 in Tonga.

Even with an extra week off, Highlanders captain Billy Harmon has yet to recover from a cut hand he sustained against Moana Pasifika and he is out for this one along with Connor Garden-Bachop who is following head injury protocols.

While the visitors are missing some key men, the Crusaders welcome a couple back with All Blacks Tamati Williams and Cody Taylor both returning this weekend.

Verdict: Crusaders 7/20

With some big guns returning I reckon we could see the Crusaders put in a proper shift this weekend.

Waratahs 11/4 | Draw 25/1 | Brumbies 2/7 (11:35)

Handicap
Waratahs (+9.5) 9/10 | Brumbies (-9.5) 9/10

It’s over to Australia for our penultimate Round 12 game which will see the 11th-placed Waratahs take on the third-placed Brumbies. The hosts have yet to beat any side apart from the Crusaders this term and they face an uphill battle in changing that here. The Brumbies ran out 40-16 victors, in a dominant performance, when the two sides met earlier this term.

The ‘Tahs will be glad to see the back of Kiwi opposition after the last fortnight, with games against the Hurricanes and Chiefs a rude insight into how big the gulf is between the boys duking it out at the top of the table and the men from New South Wales. While they did have moments in their Round 10 game against the Chiefs – which they lost 22-38 – the same cannot be said of their clash with the Hurricanes last weekend, which saw them thoroughly outclassed in a one-sided fixture that ended 41-12 in favour of the men from Wellington.

While their opponents for Saturday have endured a tough old fortnight, the Brumbies have fared rather better inflicting the Hurricanes’ first loss of the season in Round 10 before backing that up with a hard-fought 28-20 win over a Drua side that was well and truly up for last weekend’s clash.

As has been the case the entire season, the ‘Tahs have more injury worries with young hooker Julian Heaven out for the rest of season after picking up an injury against the Drua. On the Brumbies side of things, there’s a change at fly-half with Jack Debrezenzi getting his first start of the season in the ten jumper.

Verdict: Brumbies (-9.5) 9/10

The ‘Tahs tight five stocks are down to bare bones and I can see the Brumbies heavies taking them to task at scrum and lineout time. My money is on the men from Canberra registering a big win in New South Wales this Saturday.

Force 9/10 | Draw 20/1 | Drua 92/100 (13:55)

Our final game of the weekend sees the hapless Force take on a Drua side looking to entrench themselves in the play-off spots. For the Force, their play-off aspirations are all but mathematically over with the men from Perth only able to muster up two victories thus far, while the Drua are well in the mix having on double the amount as the Force.

Speaking of the Force’s losses, last week saw them suffer one of the heaviest defeats of the season as they went down 56-7 to the Chiefs in Waikato. It was a real gut punch for the Force, who had put up a real fight in a 7-6 defeat to the Highlanders a week prior and beaten the Crusaders the round before that.

Like their opponent, the Drua also head into it one off the back of a defeat. Unlike their opponents, however, the Drua can take a lot of positives from last weekend’s 28-20 defeat to the Brumbies in Canberra with the Drua coming back from 21-3 down at half-time to just miss out on a losing bonus point.

Verdict: Drua 92/100

I think the Force will struggle to keep the Drua’s exciting backs quiet in this one.