Damien Kayat previews the round of 32 matches Cincinnati Masters featuring Jelena Ostapenko vs Jennifer Brady as well as Elina Svitolina vs Angelique Kerber.
WTA Tour 2021
Premier 5
Cincinnati Masters
Lindner Family Tennis Centre (Hard-Outdoor)
Selected Round of 32 Matches- 18th August
Jelena Ostapenko 5/4 | Jennifer Brady 63/100
Jennifer Brady enjoyed an incredible 2020 campaign, catapulting from near obscurity to the upper echelons of women’s tennis. The big-hitting former college star reached her first-ever Premier semi-final in Dubai prior to the Covid break. Brady then returned to action with a vengeance, claiming her maiden WTA title at the Top Seed Open. She then really cemented her status as a new hardcourt queen with a semi-final run at Flushing Meadows (she would lose to Naomi Osaka). The American went one better at this year’s Aussie Open, reaching her maiden Grand Slam final before arch-nemesis Naomi Osaka once again derailed her. But all that positive juju has abandoned Brady: she has only reached the final 16 of one event since Melbourne. Her issues were exacerbated by a foot injury sustained in her 3rd round defeat at the French Open. But she looked imperious against Alexandrova in her opening match, winning in straight sets despite only making 52% of her first serves.
You have got to love Jelena Ostapenko. One of the biggest enigmas in women’s tennis, the former French Open Champ can really run the gamut of performances. She can devastate top 10 players with her big-hitting before checking out against a qualifier the next day. It’s infuriating. This year is just a perfect microcosm of her abilities. She went and claimed the Birmingham title despite really poor year-to-date form. Many people tend to associate Ostapenko with clay due to that French Open win. But in reality, most of her success has come on hardcourts. Two of her four titles have been on harder surfaces (Korea and Luxembourg). She also reached the 2018 Miami Open Final after beating the likes of Svitolina and Kvitova. Her hell-for-leather approach to groundstrokes works best on faster surfaces. These Cincinnati surfaces seem pretty brisk and may just suit the Latvian (she is coming off of a straight-sets victory against Tamara Zidansk). In typical Ostapenko fashion, the match was dominated by multiple breaks of serve. She is a player who will look to deny Brady of her ordinary service rhythm.
Verdict: Brady in 3 at 33/10
Brady leads the overall head-to-head with Brady 2-1. Their most recent meeting was a routine victory for the American at this year’s Madrid Open. But as I noted earlier, I think Ostapenko will benefit from the speeds of these courts. But does that give her the edge over a firmly established hardcourt specialist? I think the best value is to opt for Brady in three at 33/10, hoping that the Latvian can carve a set off. I still think Brady should be able to dominate most of the exchanges.
Elina Svitolina 64/100 | Angelique Kerber 12/10
Two-time Grand Slam semi-finalist Elina Svitolina will be looking to bounce back following a poor defeat to Konta in the Canadian Open. What made it all the more shocking was that Svitolina has recently recorded that remarkable comeback victory against Rybakina at the Olympics (she came back from 1-4 down in the final set). But in reality, that Bronze Medal obscures what has been a fairly middling season for the Ukrainian hardcourt specialist. The former WTA Finals Champion has often shown her quality in elite hardcourt events (she also has titles in Dubai and Canada). Back-to-back semi-finals in Miami and Stuttgart are not really enough for a player of her pedigree. At times I feel that the media pressure on her is amplified by her marriage to Gael Monfils (tennis power-couple and all that jazz). She will open up her Cincinnati account this week against an all-too-familiar foe: Angelique Kerber.
33-year-old Angelique Kerber has some Cincinnati pedigree, reaching the final here on two previous appearances (in 2012 and 2016). But the results on the harder surfaces have dried up over the last few years. To illustrate this, Kerber has only gone beyond the 4th round once in her last nine Grand Slams on hard surfaces. Her form this year was nowhere as midseason approached. But as per usual, Kerber was able to resuscitate her year on grass. She won the Bad Homburg Open prior to yet another semi-final run at Wimbledon. I was sceptical of how well she would perform with the switch to hardcourts. But she absolutely annihilated the rising Greek star Maria Sakkari in her opening match (Sakkari just reached her maiden Grand Slam semi-final at the French Open).
Verdict: Kerber to win at 12/10
This will remarkably be the 15th time these old foes will have met. The Ukrainian actually leads the head-to-head 9-5. Having said that, there’s actually a lot less to choose between the two on hardcourts, with Svitolina leading those matches 6-5 (a bit surprising that). I’m opting for Kerber to come out on top. That has less to do with her two previous finals here than it has to do with the brilliance of her victory over Sakkari.
