Our tennis guru previews three selected Round of 16 matches taking place at the 2018 Bavarian International Tennis Championships.
Bavarian International Tennis Championships | Ro16 | Wednesday 2 May – Thursday 3 May
Jan Lennard Struff 11/20 | Yannick Maden 27/20
An all-German affair sees 53rd ranked Jan Lennard Struff taking on 148th ranked Yannick Mader. It’s an interesting clash, with Struff clearly the player with more experience at the top level. He enjoyed a shocking start to the campaign, losing six of seven matches between Sydney and Casablanca earlier this year. But his luck seemed to turn as soon as the tour turned to clay. He beat the higher ranked pair of Yuichi Sugita and Fabio Fognini in what was a highly commendable run in Monte Carlo. He had a decent run to the quarterfinals in Budapest, though victories over Zopp and Bublik hardly bespeak an illustrious event. He beat Daniel Masur in the first round here and is an understandable favorite here.
Yannick Maden has largely toiled on the Challenger Series, with odd forays onto the ATP proper. Ironically enough, Maden also enjoyed a decent run on the clay of Budapest. One could argue that his victories over Fucsovics and Marterer were far more impressive than those of his opponent today. But he managed a surprise victory in his first match here, overcoming Yuichi Sugita in a titanic struggle that saw him come from a set down.
11/20 on Struff looks good to me, especially when you consider his performance in Monte Carlo a few weeks back.
Phillip Kohlschreiber 2/9 | Mischa Zverev 5/2
Yet another all-German encounter sees two veterans of the tour line up for a place in the quarterfinals. Sixth seed Kohlschreiber hasn’t had the greatest of years, with time perhaps catching up on the dogged competitor. His year-to-date win-loss count of 7/10 reflects that dip. But he had a terrific run in Monte Carlo, with perhaps the clay allowing him the chance to utilize that considerable court craft. He beat Sandgren and Ramos-Vinolas en route to the Round of 16, where he lost narrowly to Grigor Dimitrov. He also reached the quarterfinals in Indian Wells. So it has been a strange season for Kohlschreiber.
The older Zverev brother has had a worse season, with a year-to-date win-loss count of 6/12. He has had a similarly middling season to Kohlschreiber, with a commendable performance in Monte Carlo giving him something in common with Kohlschreiber. I actually called that victory over Lucas Pouille, as many players do struggle against the serve and volleying stylistics of Zverev the first time around.
Zverev leads the head-to-head 1-0, though that victory came on an indoor hardcourt in 2008, so it’s merely mathematical. I think that Zverev looks like amazing value at 11/4, especially when you consider he has the scalp of Lucas Pouille in his bag recently.
Diego Schwartzmann 3/10 | Maximillain Marterer 22/10
Two young guns meet in the Round of 16, with exciting Argentine prospect Diego Schwartzmann taking on left-handed German Maximillian Marterer. Diego Schwartzmann has been a frustrating figure to put any faith into. He really burst to my attention in Melbourne, where he pushed Rafa Nadal much harder than anticipated in that Round of 16 clash. He then went on to win in Rio, setting up what looked to be a glorious European clay court season. But nothing has happened. He was heavily defeated by Richard Gasquet in Monte Carlo before once again being humiliated by Tsitsipas in Barcelona. So while he may be the heavy favorite here, the European clay has certainly not been his friend of late.
Young Max Marterer has had a 7/7 season to date, and has had some decent moments thus far, though mostly on the harder courts. He reached the Round of 32 in Melbourne and went on to win a Challenger Series event in Cherbourg. He also beat Joao Sousa and Malek Jaziri in the Sofia Open, showing that he has the capability to take down a talented opponent, though hasn’t really translated that to the clay-courts thus far.
I really think that the young German has a chance this week, especially looking at Schwartzmann’s recent form on clay. I know that Schwartmann leads the head-to-head 1-0, but he looks a bit short of form of recent. Plus, odds of 2/5 look extremely unsatisfying for a man in such form.
Written by Damien Kayat for @Hollywoodbets.net
