Damien Kayat previews two of the two biggest matches from the Nitto ATP Finals Group Matches taking place on Tuesday.
Roger Federer 3/10 | Dominic Thiem 22/10
Roger Federer’s harshest critics will no doubt be exhilarated by his relative capitulation against Kei Nishikori. To me, it seems as if the iconic Swiss master has perhaps pushed himself a tad hard in this last stretch of the season, likely in search of that mythical 100th title. The normally even-tempered star actually lost his cool after receiving a code-violation for hitting the ball into the crowd. That coupled with some histrionics in the Indian Wells Final indicates that perhaps the benevolent Federer is getting a tad testy in advanced age, more like the volatile Swiss that burst onto the scene Wimbledon- ponytail and all. Federer has still tasted Grand Slam success this season amongst several titles. He is aiming to make it a record-extending seven titles in this event and can never be discounted.
Dominic Thiem has kind of floated below the radar this year, despite capturing three titles and reaching the final at Roland Garros. His titles in Lyon, Argentina and St Petersburg reflect his ability to dominate in the slightly lower echelons. The clay-court specialist lost the Madrid Open Final en route to a slightly dispiriting straight sets loss in the Roland Garros showpiece. But the semi-final finish in Paris solidified his spot here and reminded the world of his prowess. And it’s easy to forget that Thiem was within a whisker of reaching the semis at Flushing Meadows, pushing Rafa Nadal in a gruelling five-set thriller. Thiem was really blown away by big-serving of Anderson and will feel more comfortable in the more prolonged points likely on offer here.
Dominic Thiem actually leads the head-to-head with Federer 2-1, with all three matches coming back in 2016. Federer did, however, win their one encounter on the hardcourts. It’s quite hard to call this match and Thiem makes an appealing case at 22/10. But I just don’t see Federer losing this match, despite cutting a somewhat jaded figure. I think 5/2 for Federer to win a grinder in three could be decent value.
Kei Nishikori (13/20) vs Kevin Anderson (12/10)
While it’s hard to argue against Stefanos Tsitsipas being the breakthrough player on the tour this season, one has to admire the manner in which Kevin Anderson has consolidated his US Open run last season. He has become a persistent figure in the Majors and was rewarded with his first trip to London this season. His opening round dismantling of Dominic Thiem exhibited all the characteristics that mark his success. His relentless serving and surprisingly deft movement put him a cut above your average bomb merchant. He reached another final with an epic showing at Wimbledon which actually had long-term ramifications for the sport: that Isner semi-final duel resulted in a pragmatic shortening the 5th set. Anderson will be benefiting from the slightly quicker conditions reported this week and will be looking to add considerable gloss to a season that has seen him claim titles in New York and Vienna.
Former US Open finalist Kei Nishikori has overcome considerable injury issues and is enjoying a stellar end to the season. Injuries are always likely considering Nishikori’s line of work: he is an indefatigable baseliner who doesn’t know the meaning of a lost cause. While yet to claim a title this season, three final appearances seem to suggest that he is not light years away from re-joining the winner’s circle. He reached a Grand Slam semi-final at Flushing Meadows whilst enjoying an encouraging quarterfinal run at Wimbledon. Elsewhere he has been the embodiment of consistency, with quarterfinals everywhere. The energetic Japanese star recently reached the final in Vienna but has curiously lost his last nine ATP finals. His straight sets victory over Roger Federer was hugely impressive and makes this a mouth-watering affair.
These two are in the middle of a fascinating duel having met twice in recent memory. Anderson dispatched of Nishikori in the Vienna Final before the Japanese tasted revenge in Paris. Overall it is the Japanese who leads the South African 6-3 in head-to-head encounters. But to me, it seems that Anderson is the man to beat and may represent the biggest threat to Djokovic for the title. The extra speed of these courts aids Anderson’s play and makes him attractive at 12/10.
