Damien Kayat previews the final Red Group match of the Nitto ATP Finals between Andrey Rublev and Alex Zverev on the 17th of November 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
Nitto ATP Finals
Pala Alptiour, Turi, Italy (Indoor Hardcourt)
Red Group- Final Match – 17th November
Trying to understand the qualification permutations of the ATP Finals is like trying to understand Tenet on the first watch: challenging. Andrey Rublev is essentially out after losing both of his previous matches in straight-sets. It is yet another damning indictment of the Russian’s questionable BMT and it will be interesting to see how he picks himself up for this one. Alex Zverev needs two things to happen if he wishes to progress to the semi-finals: he needs Medvedev to beat Alcaraz and he then needs to conquer Rublev to ensure qualification. Basically, an Alcaraz victory over Medvedev in the earlier match will turn this into a damp squib, with both players playing for pride in the final matches of their respective campaigns.
Andrey Rublev 12/10 | Alex Zverev 13/20
I would love to know how much Andrey Rublev invests in sports psychologists. It must be really frustrating to know that your best tennis practically guarantees you a spot in an event that you have very little chance of winning.
The top guys- Djokovic, Alcaraz, Medvedev- just have this inalienable winning mentality that Rublev lacks. And this is a guy who has enjoyed a fantastic season, winning his maiden Masters 1000 title in Monte-Carlo before reaching another Masters final in Shanghai. He just always seems to flub his lines when the world is watching.
And he started off brightly against Alcaraz, producing some sparkling tennis from the back of the court. But he just couldn’t get near the Spaniard’s first-serve (Alcaraz only dropped two points on his first-serve in the entire match). He couldn’t generate a break point in the entire match and he ultimately lost the final three games of the first set.
He then proceeded to bloody his own knee with his racquet, requiring medical treatment for an act of petulance that underlined his mental fragility.
Alex Zverev will know if he has any chance of qualification when this match starts. In any event, the lanky German has to be pleased with the form he has shown in this season-ending event.
The two-time ATP Finals champion overcame Alcaraz in a three-set thriller before another solid performance against a bang in-form Medvedev. Zverev actually led the Russian 4-1 in the first-set tiebreaker but he was ultimately undone by the Russian’s extraterrestrial ability to turn defence into attack.
Zverev has done brilliantly this season, bouncing back from that horror ankle injury to become an ever-present in the latter stages of events. He almost seems to have focused more on his serve post-injury, creating the platform whereby he is able to mitigate longer rallies and win more cheap points.
And that is really ideally suited to these brisk indoor conditions. Whatever happens in this match, I think it’s safe to assume that the German will a true contender for top honours next season.
Verdict: Zverev to win in straight-sets at 16/10
Zverev enjoys a 5-3 head-to-head superiority over the Russian. But closer inspection of their rivalry paints a completely different picture. Rublev has won all three of their matches this year, clearly taking advantage of the German during his recovery.
But Zverev is starting to resemble his best self while Rublev’s tournament has been a bit of a disaster. It’s really hard to accurately call this match given that it could be rendered meaningless by the result of the Alcaraz-Medvedev match.
Be that as it may, I simply don’t know how Rublev can pick himself up after that dispiriting 2nd set hammering by Alcaraz. Zverev is serving brilliantly and Rublev looked absolutely helpless against the Alcaraz serve.
