Damien Kayat previews Tommy Paul vs Blake Shelton and Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marcos Giron in selected Quarter-finals of the Japan Open on the 20th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Japan Open
Ariake Tennis Forest Park, Tokyo, Japan (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinals – 20th October
Tommy Paul 71/100 | Blake Shelton 11/10
Tommy Paul’s chances of qualifying for the season-ending ATP Finals are looking much brighter after 10h placed Casper Rudd and 11th ranked Hubert Hurkacz were eliminated on Wednesday.
This means the crafty American will jump up to 10th in the rankings with victory in Tokyo. Paul has been an exemplar of consistency this season, reaching semi-finals at both the Aussie Open and Canadian Masters. He also reached his maiden ATP 500 final in Mexico (going down to Alex de Minaur in the final).
In Toronto he managed to dismantle the high-octane game of World No.1 Carlos Alcaraz, using his full repertoire of tricks to surprise the Spainard. Paul is unafraid to employ slice and approach the net if necessary (a nice tonic from the contemporary baseline addict).
He reached the final 16 in Shanghai and he started quite slowly this week, coming back from a set down against Daniel Altmaier. But he looked far more composed against McDonald and he will be out for vengeance as he meets his US Open conqueror: Ben Shelton.
21-year-old American Ben Shelton has proven to be quite a divisive figure in his brief career. His rambunctious on-court antics boarder on arrogance and some feel he probably hasn’t done enough in the game to justify such behaviour.
Still yet to reach an ATP final, Shelton has propelled himself into the limelight with a few notable Grand Slam performances. He reached the quarterfinals of the Aussie Open on debut before a scene-stealing turn at Flushing Meadows.
The fanatical New York crowds proved quite responsive to his boisterous style as he went on to reach his first Grand Slam semi-final. The big-serving lefty just needs to convert some of that Grand Slam magic into more consistent tennis.
He looked brilliant on the brisk Shanghai surfaces, taking down red-hot Jannik Sinner before a heartbreaking quarterfinal defeat to compatriot Seb Korda. He has struggled with double-faults this week, having to come back from a set down against both Taro Daniel and Jordan Thompson.
But that megawatt serve has bailed him out in tight moments and he will be desperate to make his first final this week.
Verdict: Paul to win in three at 5/2
The American pair share the head-to-head spoils with one win apiece. Shelton obviously won their most recent encounter with a four-set triumph at Flushing Meadows. Shelton only knows one way to play and that’s full-on.
He will look to be the aggressor while Paul searches for ways to weather the storm. That being said, Paul has won an impressive 84% of his first-serve points in the tournament. Paul will have learnt a lot from New York and I expect him to really mix it up and deliver a tough three-set win.
Felix Auger-Aliassime 58/100 | Marcos Giron 27/20
I almost feel sorry for Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. Long touted as an eventual World No.1, Aliassime seemed to have everything going for him. He has a strong serve, excellent movement and power off both wings.
But the fact that it took him so long to secure that maiden ATP title probably gave you a small glimpse into his mental shortcomings. He corrected that trend, winning four titles in a stellar 2022 campaign. And everything seemed to be going gangbusters for the Canadian in the opening salvos of this season.
He reached the 4th round of the Aussie Open prior to a season-best semi-final run in Qatar (he also had quarterfinal bids in Rotterdam and Indian Wells). But the wheels have come off in spectacular fashion since then. He came into this event with a dreadful 3-10 record since that Indian Wells showing. What has happened?
Injuries haven’t helped but I think it’s more down to his mental fragility. The rise of the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner has left the Canadian a bit gun-shy. He is playing too one-dimensionally, just sticking to the baseline and engaging in slugfests. I think he needs to add some dimension to his game to truly unlock his potential.
Former UCLA alumni Marcos Giron has enjoyed a pretty humdrum campaign. The ‘ball-machine’ hasn’t been able to reach the heights that saw him register his maiden ATP final in San Diego last year. But he has actually been on the cusp of some really decent results- particularly in the opening stanzas of the year.
He actually reached three quarterfinals in his first five events of the season. Results have softened since then but he has managed to pick up a few notable scalps along the way. He took down 5th seed Holger Rune en route to a round of 16 showing in Toronto. And he is fresh off a sterling upset win over 2nd seed Casper Rudd.
To be fair, Rudd has been in dire form and is pretty much a walking upset at present. Still, Giron has now reached his 5th quarterfinal of the year and this will likely represent his last real chance to reach a semi-final all season.
Verdict: Giron to win in three sets at 42/10
Auger-Aliassime holds a commanding 3-0 advantage over Giron. However, this will be their first ever match on hardcourts. Why not go for the Giron ‘upset’ win here?
Auger-Aliassime has been in frankly abysmal form and Giron has picked up two fairly recent wins over top 10 players. These fast surfaces suit the American and I can see him prevailing in three.
