Damien Kayat previews Alexei Popyrin vs Cristian Garin and Alex de Minaur vs Diego Schwartzman in selected round of 16 matches of the Japan Open on the 19th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Japan Open
Ariake Coliseum, Ariake Tennis Forest Park- Tokyo, Japan (Outdoor Hardcourts)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 19th October
Alexei Popyrin 54/100 | Cristian Garin 14/10
This has been an extremely bizarre year for enigmatic Aussie talent Alexei Popyrin. The 24-year-old started the season with a bang, upsetting Taylor Fritz en route to a 3rd round run at the Aussie Open. His season then went into a fairly typical plateau.
That was until a mid-season run saw him break into the top 40 in the world for the first time in his career. He won his 2nd career title in Umag before a breakthrough quarterfinal run at the Cincinnati Masters. But Popyrin hasn’t been able to really capitalize on that mid-season surge, coming into this event on the back of four consecutive defeats.
This included a pretty poor first-round defeat to Arnaldi in Shanghai last time out. Nobody was giving him any chance of taking down recent Zhuhai champion Karen Khachanov in his Tokyo opener. But Popyrin produced arguably his best all-round performance of the year, obliterating the Russian with a textbook display of first-strike tennis.
27-year-old Chilean Cristian Garin is really your prototypical clay-court specialist. The fast-moving Chilean really imposed himself on the clay-court scene a few years back, reaching six finals between 2019 and 2021.
He won the most prestigious title of his career at the 2020 Rio Open. Those performances helped propel him into the top 20 in the world rankings. He then defied all expectations with a completely unheralded quarterfinal run at last year’s Wimbledon Championships.
But this year has been an absolute no-show for the pugnacious clay-court hustler. Back-to-back quarterfinals in Houston and Munich represented the best period of a sobering campaign. Having said that, Garin did manage a pretty decent showing at the Indian Wells Masters, taking down Caper Rudd en route to the final 16.
But those Indian Wells courts are notoriously slow and really suited Garin down to a tee. Garin has enjoyed a pretty nondescript Asian swing and he will feel relieved after overcoming Sho in three sets.
The Verdict: Popyrin to win in straight-sets at 13/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. I just can’t look past Popyrin’s exceptional performance against Khachanov. It’s as if he harnessed all his raw potential and finally got it to work harmoniously. I think his pure striking power will be too much for a pretty dejected Garin.
Alex de Minaur 7/20 | Diego Schwartzman 43/20
I knew that de Minaur’s opener against Jack Draper had classic potential. The Aussie has had an incredible season, winning his first ATP 500 title in Mexico before an incredible run to the Canadian Open final. The ‘Speed Demon’ has added a greater degree of aggression to his astonishing defensive output.
But he has gone slightly quiet of late, coming into this event with back-to-back 2nd round losses in the Asian swing. So, I had my concerns when he was drawn against the ludicrously talented Jack Draper. And the Aussie did initially struggle with reading the lefty’s awkward serve.
Draper would ultimately serve for the match in the final set but the Aussie was somehow able to worm his way out of trouble and persevere. You have to admire the gumption of the World No.13- he has that Nadal-like ability to never give in.
It has been an extremely tough 12 months for diminutive Argentine baseliner Diego Schwartzman. Lest we forget, the five-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist did reach a career-high ranking of 8th at the zenith of his career. And he still had some of that magic last season, reaching the final in Rio and the semi-final in Barcelona.
But he has fallen on hard times this year and it doesn’t really surprise me. Schwartzman’s brand of stubborn baseline play is fuelled by Energizer Bunny athleticism. At 31 years of age, Schwartzman is getting to that age where he isn’t going to run down every lost cause.
He has never had particularly strong weapons and he seems to be getting exposed. He actually went into last week’s Shanghai Masters with a dire 9-22 record for the year. But the Argentine found something on those brisk courts, perhaps capitalizing on the general fatigue of the other players.
He took down Taylor Fritz en route to an impressive round of 16 showing. He just backed that up with a thoroughly convincing win over Cerundolo and he will be confident of continuing this mini renaissance.
The Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight-sets at 91/100
I was slightly surprised to learn that these two have only met once before, with the Aussie running out a comfortable victor at this year’s Queen’s Championships. I think it could be tempting to chase the Schwartzman victory in the wake of recent form. But I think that de Minaur will feel emboldened by that Draper escape and I can see him overwhelming the Argentine.
