Damien Kayat previews Alex de Minaur vs Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune vs Sebastian Baez in Selected Round of 16 Matches of the Swiss Indoors on the 26th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Swiss Indoors
St. Jakobshalle, Basel, Switzerland (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 26th October
Alex de Minaur (1/3) | Tallon Griekspoor (22/10)
‘Speed Demon’ Alex De Minaur has enjoyed an extremely consistent season which sees him on the precipice of breaking into the top 10 for the first time in his career. The Aussie also stands an outside chance of qualifying for the ATP Finals if he plays exceptionally over the next two weeks.
De Minaur played well in the hardcourt slams this season (he reached the 4th round in both). He won his maiden ATP 500 title in Mexico- to go with a further three finals. He has gone slightly quiet since the advent of the Asian swing. He’s probably starting to feel the strain of what has been an extremely arduous year.
He endured early exits in Beijing and Shanghai but he did manage a quarterfinal run in Japan last week. He will feel slightly frustrated with the way he was steamrolled by Karatsev in Tokyo.
But he bounced back nicely this week, picking up his 2nd consecutive win against Diego Schwartzmann. A finalist here in 2019, De Minaur will take some beating on these surfaces.
27-year-old Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor has been something of a late bloomer in the sport, only cracking the top 100 in October 2021. But he has been on an upward trajectory over the past few seasons and is currently hovering just outside the top 20 in the world rankings. Griekspoor won his maiden ATP event at the Maharashtra Open.
He then wowed in his home event in Rosmalen, taking down Taylor Fritz en route to his 2nd title of the season. He reached another final in Washington but has gone 3-6 in completed matches since then. He wasn’t exactly convincing in his opening win against Seyboth Wild and he will certainly need to be more solid against De Minaur.
Griekspoor is solid from the back of the court and he has plenty of variety. He uses slice and drop-shots to disrupt his opponent’s rhythm. That could prove difficult against one of the fittest men in the game.
Verdict: Griekspoor to win in three at 58/10
Griekspoor actually won their only previous encounter at this year’s Rosmalen event. This should be a fascinating one. On one hand, Griekspoor can’t rely too much on drop-shots against the movement of the Aussie.
But on the other hand, Griekspoor’s variety will make it difficult for the Aussie to successfully counterpunch. I think there’s value in a tight Greikspoor win (especially looking at that result from earlier this season).
Holger Rune 44/100 | Sebastian Baez 7/4
Could Holger Rune’s comeback victory against Miomir Kecmanovic- who bested him easily in Stockholm last week- be the result that brings his season out of hibernation? Currently ranked 8th in the Race to Turin standings, Rune really needs a positive result this week to keep his ATP Finals dream alive.
Rune enjoyed a stellar first half of the campaign, winning in Munich and reaching a final in Rome. He also flexed his Grand Slam muscle with quarterfinal runs in Paris and London. But he came into this year’s Swiss Indoors in awful form (he had won just once in eight matches going into the Kecmanovic match).
Some have blamed a new relationship for his dip in form. I just think he is a young talent who opponents have started to decode. He recently hired Boris Becker on an interim basis and it seemed to pay some dividends in his opener.
He avenged his defeat to Kecmanovic lfrom ast week, hitting 12 winners in the 3rd set in a potentially galvanizing performance. Rune was a beaten finalist here last year and he will require a similar result to bolster his Race to Turin chances.
22-year-old Argentine Sebastian Baez has been hugely impressive this season. The clay-court specialist has understandably enjoyed most of his success on the sticky stuff (winning titles in Cordoba and Austria).
The diminutive Baez has also managed to escape the clay-court ghetto this season, picking up his maiden hardcourt title at Winston-Salem. He followed that breakthrough performance with a highly creditable 3rd round run at the US Open.
He led red-hot Jannik Sinner by a set in Shanghai before the Italian got his act together. He went down rather easily to Wolff in Stockholm last week and he really had to grind it out against Aussie O’Connell in his opener here. Baez is essentially the more aggressive version of compatriot Diego Schwartzmann.
Verdict: Rune to win in straight-sets – 11/10
These two share the head-to-head spoils at one win apiece (though both of those matches were played on clay-courts). Rune has proven himself to be highly adept on these brisk surfaces and I think his comeback win over Kecmanovic could spark a late-season revival.
Lest we forget, this was the portion of the season where he really started to announce himself last year. I just think he will have too much power for the energetic Argentine.
