Damien Kayat previews Casper Rudd vs Alexander Bublik and Andy Murray vs Tomas Etcheverry in selected round of 32 matches of the Swiss Indoors in the 25th of October 2023.
2023 ATP Tour
ATP 500
Swiss Indoors
ST. Jakobshalle, Basel Switzerland (Indoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 32 Matches – 25th October
Casper Rudd 5/10 | Alexander Bublik 31/20
This promises to be a fascinating contrast in styles. Three-time Grand Slam finalist Casper Rudd has leaned on his impressive clay-court skills to patch over his deficiencies this season. He currently stands at a respectable 36-21 for the season.
But his only notable performances of the season have come on clay. He produced another stellar performance in Paris- reaching the final of the French Open for the 2nd consecutive season. He won in Estoril and reached a further final in Bastad. He also managed an ATP 1000 semi-final run in Rome.
But he hasn’t gone beyond the quarterfinal stage of any non-clay event. Rudd likely needs a strong week if he wishes to reach his 3rd consecutive ATP Finals. But recent early exits in Shanghai and Tokyo speaks to a player low on hardcourt confidence. Still, Rudd is a former US Open and ATP Finals runner-up and you can’t completely discount him finding his rhythm on these surfaces.
Alexander Bublik is to Casper Rudd what jazz is to smooth R&B. The Norwegian thrives on rhythm, engaging in long baseline duels to wear his opponent down. The mercurial Kazakh isn’t interested in constructing points.
He uses unconventional means to finish points quickly, often utilizing a drop-shot to take players by surprise. Honestly, Bublik is like the Jelena Ostapenko of men’s tennis. He has lost in the first round on a staggering 15 occasions this season.
Still, he picked up his maiden ATP 500 title in Halle and he is fresh off winning his 4th career title in Antwerp (where he actually broke a streak of five consecutive defeats). Trying to figure out which Bublik is going to show is like trying to guess who is going to survive an episode of Game of Thrones.
Verdict: Bublik to win in three sets at 46/10
Rudd does possess a pretty imposing 5-1 advantage over the maverick Kazakh. But Bublik did win their last indoor hardcourt meeting in last year’s Davis Cup qualifiers. I think that Rudd’s poor form makes this match irresistible upset fodder. Bublik loves these fast indoor arenas. He is able to dominate on serve and play his unique brand of off-kilter first strike tennis.
Andy Murray 54/100 | Tomas Etcheverry 14/10
Three-time Grand Slam champion Andy Murray is a proud competitor and he doesn’t just want to be making up the numbers. He has shown glimpses of his best tennis this season, reaching a final in Qatar and reaching three Challenger titles.
But he really hasn’t been able to create any momentum in the latter portion of the season. He is coming off back-to-back first round defeats in Beijing and Shanghai. I honestly believe he could announce his retirement with another early exit his week.
He will feel slightly relived after seeing off Yannick Hanfmann in a routine straight-sets victory. But can he back that up with another professional performance? Murray looked physically solid in that opener but his injury-ravaged body has often flagged as events have progressed.
24-year-old Argentine Tomas Etcheverry has enjoyed a really positive season, making his mark on the clay-courts to propel himself into the top 30 for the first time in his career.
The indefatigable baseliner reached clay-court finals in Chile and Houston, perfectly setting him up as a dark horse challenger at Roland Garros. And he didn’t disappoint, reaching his maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal with a rousing display on the Parisian clay.
His form has been rather humdrum since then (though he did manage a quarterfinal run at the recent Zhuhai Championships). But there have been signs throughout the campaign that he could possibly extend his success beyond clay. He made it to the 2nd round of all the other Slams and he just picked up a brilliant three-set win over Seb Korda in his Swiss opener.
The tall Argentine has a forehand reminiscent of compatriot Del Potro and his movement is excellent.
Verdict: Etcheverry to win in three – 42/10
Andy Murray won their only previous meeting earlier this year, coming back from a set down against the spirited Argentine at Indian Wells. I think the Argentine’s a combination of brilliant athleticism and sledgehammer forehand could prove tough for Murray.
Etcheverry will be able to retrieve many of Murray’s balls but he also has a weapon that can penetrate from the back of the court. I can see the Argentine outlasting Murray in an epic duel.
