Damien Kayat previews Jessica Pegula vs Elina Svitolina (WTA) and Grigor Dimitrov vs Ugo Humbert (ATP) in selected quarterfinal matches of the Mubadala Citi Open, on the 4th of August 2023.
2023 WTA/ATP Tour
WTA 500/ATP 500
Mubadala Citi Open
William H.G. Fitzgerald Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Quarterfinal Matches – 4th August
WTA Tour
Jessica Pegula 6/10 | Elina Svitolina 13/10
This looks set to be a mouthwatering quarterfinal clash. Top seed and 2019 Washington champion Jessica Pegula has enjoyed a consistent- if frustrating- season.
This will mark her 8th quarterfinal appearance of the campaign. But the Buffalo-native is yet to win a title this year and hasn’t progressed to the final-four since Charleston. She was trounced by Swiatek in the Qatar final and she was eliminated in the quarterfinals of both the Aussie Open and Wimbledon Championships (she is fast developing a reputation as the Andrey Rublev of the women’s tour).
She will be desperate to add another piece of silverware to her locker and these surfaces suit her to the bone. Both of her titles have come on hardcourts and this event was the site of her maiden WTA Tour victory. She won a WTA 1000 event in Guadalajara last year and she has been one of the most consistent performers at WTA 1000 level for some time.
She reached the quarterfinals of last year’s US Open and she is fresh off a comfortable opening round victory against up-and-coming Peyton Stearns.
Former World No.3 Elina Svitolina has emerged as a firm fan’s favourite since returning to action following maternity leave. She has been applauded for her stance on the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian saga and has also played some damn fine tennis to boot.
In fact, the 28-year-old has won 15 of her last 18 competitive matches. She won the Strasbourg title before an excellent French Open quarterfinal run. She was even more impressive at Wimbledon, reaching her 3rd Grand Slam semi-final and 1st since 2019.
And she has dealt with a daunting Washington draw with minimal fuss, beating former World No.1 Azarenka and Daria Kasatkina in straight-sets. That victory over Kasatkina extended her dominance over the Russian to 8-0.
She struck a stunning 22 forehand winners in a performance that really highlighted her new-found aggression. It also showcased how much work she has done on that forehand wing over the last four months.
Verdict: Pegula to win in three at 32/10
This pair met thrice in 2021 and Pegula leads the head-to-head 2-1. She actually thrashed Svitolina when they last met at Indian Wells. This should prove an even clash between two adept baseline operators.
Pegula is probably slightly more aggressive while Svitolina looks to strategically counterpunch. Having said that, Svitolina has looked more aggressive of late and has definitely worked on making that forehand a weapon.
The Ukrainian can struggle on serve and tends to cough up plenty of break-points. And I think those serving demons could prove decisive in a tight three-set match.
ATP Tour
Grigor Dimitrov 53/100 | Ugo Humbert 29/20
32-year-old Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov is sneakily enjoying quite the comeback season. Long considered something of an underachiever, the eight-time tour winner has struggled with retaining full fitness over the last few years.
But he been fortunate with injury this year and has made the most of that good fortune, reaching back-to-back Grand Slam 4th rounds at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He also registered his first ATP final since 2018 at the Geneva Open. He reached the semi-finals in Rotterdam and lost to wunderkind Carlos Alcaraz in the Queens quarterfinals.
This surge of all-court consistency has seen the Bulgarian break his way back into the top 20 in the world rankings. And he has looked imperious in Washington, picking up resounding straight-sets wins over Mackenzie McDonald and Emil Ruusuvuori.
25-year-old Frenchman Ugo Humbert is finally starting to show the type of form that saw him a claim an ATP 500 title in 2021. He will be looking to reach his 3rd consecutive ATP semi-final with victory over Grigor Dimitrov (he is fresh off semi-final showings in Newport and Atlanta).
The offensive baseliner won his first two ATP titles on hard surfaces and it really suits his game perfectly. He has an awkward lefty serve that can collect plenty of free points. And he likes to come forward and volley decisively when he is playing his best tennis.
He opened his account this week with a marathon three-set win against the dangerous Kokkinakis. But he just blew Yosuke Watanuki off the courts in a devastating performance, hitting 19 winners in a painfully lopsided encounter.
He will need to be around that level should he stand any chance of beating an opponent he has never trumped before.
Verdict: Dimitrov to win in straight-sets at 13/10
Dimitrov has won both their previous encounters. The last of those was a routine win at the 2020 Cincinnati Masters. Dimitrov looks extremely composed this week and I think he will be determined to have a fruitful North-American hardcourt campaign. Also, Humbert may feel slightly leggy given his exhaustive recent schedule.
