Damien Kayat previews Maria Sakkari vs Leylah Fernandez and Coco Gauff vs Belinda Bencic in selected round of 16 and quarterfinal matches of the Mubadala Citi Open, on the 4th of August 2023.
2023 WTA Tour
WTA 500
Mubadala Citi Open
William H.G. Fitzgerald Tennis Centre (Outdoor Hardcourt)
Selected Round of 16 & Quarterfinal Matches – 4th August
Round of 16
Maria Sakkari 59/100 | Leylah Fernandez 13/10
It has been a really weird period in the career of 28-year-old Maria Sakkari. The Greek- who still only has one career title to her name- has been a bastion of consistency this season, reaching five semi-finals across all three surfaces.
But she hasn’t reached a WTA final since reaching her 2nd WTA 1000 final in Guadalajara last year. And that lack of killer instinct has certainly filtered into her Grand Slam form (the Greek has been eliminated in the first-round of her last two Slams).
I think she would probably trade some consistency for a few more titles at this stage in her career. Having said all that, Sakkari is still an impressive 15-7 on hardcourts this year. That included a semi-final run at Indian Wells.
She is a former US Open semi-finalist who should theoretically thrive in this portion of the season. She will be hoping to exorcise some demons this week after a first-round capitulation against Marta Kostyuk at Wimbledon.
2021 US Open runner-up Leylah Fernandez desperately needs some positive momentum. The 20-year-old Canadian and her 2021 Flushing Meadows conqueror Emma Radacanu were tipped by some to be the next great rivalry in women’s tennis.
While Fernandez hasn’t slipped as far down as Radacanu- it still hasn’t been great. Her quarterfinal run at last year’s French Open showcased her Grand Slam potential. But she has struggled to find consistency since suffering a bad foot injury last season.
In fact, she hasn’t reached a tour-level quarterfinal since Auckland this year. But there have been some minor signs of improvement for the defensive baseliner. She narrowly lost to Carolina Garcia in her Wimbledon first-round match and she just overcame Bernarda Pera in straight-sets. But she needs to work on those serving gremlins.
She served nine double faults and was broken five times in her match with Pera. Sakkari’s power-based game could overwhelm Fernandez if she doesn’t generate more consistency on her delivery.
Verdict: Sakkari to win in three at 33/10
Sakkari won their only previous encounter in straight-sets at the 2021 Grampians Trophy. This is a classical test between aggressive shot-making and counterpunching tenacity.
Sakkari will look to dictate with her forehand while Fernadez will scamper for everything. I think Sakkari’s lack of confidence may give Fernandez a window of opportunity. But I still think her power will ultimately prove decisive.
Quarterfinal
Coco Gauff | Belinda Bencic
A runner-up at last year’s French Open, many people identified this as the year that 19-year-old Gauff would really assert herself on the women’s game. Things haven’t quite gone to plan for the infinitely talented American.
She hasn’t reached a final since winning the season-opening event in Auckland. In fact, she has only reached two semi-finals since claiming that title (the most recent of which coming at Eastbourne). Her Grand Slam form has helped keep her season afloat- she reached the 4th round of the Aussie Open and the quarterfinals of the French.
But her recent first-round defeat at Wimbledon really summed up what has been a disappointing season. She endured a difficult coaching shake-up earlier this season after letting go of Diego Mayano. The two had made great strides together but some undisclosed personal issues brought the fruitful relationship to a premature close.
She will be hoping that the recent addition of Brad Gilbert will help her focus on the job at hand. She just eased past Hailey Baptiste in her opening match but now she faces a much sterner challenge.
Gauff will next face off against arguably one of the biggest underachievers in women’s tennis: Belinda Bencic. I know it’s harsh to call a former World No.4 an underachiever (particularly when she is the reigning Olympic Gold Medalist).
But I just feel that a player with her talent should have more than two Grand Slam quarterfinals to her name. But the Swiss has generally played her best tennis on hardcourts and she is in the middle of a bit of a career resurgence. She won titles in Adelaide and Abu Dhabi in the early part of the season.
She would also reach the Charleston final and pick up impressive 4th round showings at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon (where she would have the misfortune of encountering Sabalenka and Swiatek respectively). Six of her eight titles have come on hardcourts and she is both a former US Open quarterfinalist (2021) and semi-finalist (2019).
Verdict: Bencic to win in three
Bencic has won their only previous encounter in a thrilling three-set match at the 2021 Adelaide International. This promises to be a fascinating clash between two versatile hardcourt operators.
Bencic has been in outstanding form of late and it looks like she’s building up nicely towards an under-the-radar US Open push. Gauff needs to back herself a bit more and start playing less passive tennis.
I think Bencic’s greater variety could be key in carrying her to victory here. But I do expect this to be a tight affair.
