Damien Kayat previews Daria Kasatkina vs Karolina Pliskova and Tommy Paul vs Sebastian Baez in selected Round of 16 matches of the Rothesay International and the Eastbourne Invitational, on the 28th of June 2023.
2023 WTA-ATP Tour
WTA 500 – ATP 250 Series
Rothesay International – Eastbourne Invitational
Devonshire Park Lawn Tennis Club, Eastbourne (Outdoor Grass)
Selected Round of 16 Matches – 28th June
WTA 500
Daria Kasatkina 89/100 | Karolina Pliskova 89/100
Daria Kasatkina will be excited by Wimbledon’s decision to allow Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete this year. Kasatkina is one of the Russian players- man or woman- who has a realistic chance of going deep in this year’s event.
Despite being ideally suited to slower surfaces, the Russian has actually got some decent grass-court credentials to her name. She reached the Birmingham final in 2021 and also reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals in 2018.
But the pugnacious Russian hasn’t quite been able to hit her stride this season. She reached an early final in Adelaide. But she has only reached one semi-final in twelve events since (at the Charleston Open).
It should come as little surprise that her form improved with the switch to clay. But the switch to grass was somewhat disastrous. The Russian lost to 81st ranked Elena Avanesyan in Berlin.
That was a pretty shocking upset that underscored Kasatkina’s recent woes. She will feel buoyed by a convincing straight-sets win over Kalinina and will be looking to build up a head of steam ahead of SW19.
31-year-old Karolina Pliskova has been one of the most consistent players on tour for well over a decade. But the statuesque Czech is starting to pick up the kind of injuries that players in their 30’s are susceptible to.
She missed much of last season due to injury and she was also picked up a knock in Dubai this year. And I think these accumulated injuries have impacted her form. She came into this event off the back of four successive defeats.
And she only progressed against Elise Mertens after the Belgian withdrew in the 3rd set of their first-round match. But it’s impossible to dismiss the Czech on this surface.
The 2021 Wimbledon runner-up has twice won in Eastbourne (in 2017 and 2019). She has also won in Nottingham and reached the final in Birmingham. She is a six-time grass-court finalist who just thrives in these conditions. She uses her pinpoint serve to dictate play and likes to play quick, concise points.
Verdict: Kasatkina to win in straight sets at 19/10
Pliskova leads the head-to-head 2-1. But all three of those matches came back in 2016. This will actually be their first grass-court meeting. This should be an exciting clash between two players desperately looking for form ahead of Wimbledon.
I think Kasatkina’s demolition of Kalinina should give her the edge in this match. Pliskova is simply not dominating on serve like she used to. I expect Kasatkina to step in and punish Pliskova’s 2nd delivery.
ATP 250
Tommy Paul 19/100 | Sebastian Baez 36/10
American Tommy Paul has really enjoyed a fantastic season. He rose to prominence with an unheralded run to the semi-finals of this year’s Aussie Open. He would then go on to reach the Acapulco final.
He followed that up with back-to-back 4th round runs during the ‘Sunshine Double’. But his season really stagnated once the clay-court swing kicked in. I think it was pretty inevitable that Tommy Paul’s season would stall somewhat on clay. Sure, he did enjoy clay-court success on the lower circuits.
But it’s a much different proposition when you are facing the very best European players. But that poor clay-court form seemed to carry over onto grass, as Paul was defeated by Argentine clay-courter Francisco Cerundolo in the first-round at Queens.
That was a pretty poor result for the American (especially when you consider that he reached the 4th round of last year’s Wimbledon Championships). His next opponent is also an Argentine clay-court specialist: Sebastian Baez.
Sebastian Baez is your prototypical South American clay-court operator. All four of his ATP Finals have come on clay. That includes his Cordoba Open victory earlier this year.
He actually enjoyed a really decent South American clay-court swing. But I think it’s telling that all four of his finals have come in the lesser clay-court stretches of the season. Baez reached a career-high ranking of 30 earlier this year but he has really struggled to have much impact of late.
He even struggled in the European clay-court swing, culminating in that epic first-round defeat to Gael Monfils at the French Open. With only two previous grass-court victories in his entire career, Baez actually went into his first-round match against Borges as a slight underdog.
But he dispatched of Borges with minimum fuss, picking up his 3rd career win on grass and giving him a nice boost of confidence. He will be hopeful of another surprise win against an out-of-form Paul.
Verdict: Paul to win in three sets at 28/10
This will be the first career meeting between these two. Both of these players are not natural grass-court fits and you can expect a seesaw battle. Paul’s serve and forehand should help him overpower the baseline-hugging Baez.
