Will Iga Świątek follow up her recent third Roland Garros title with a first Wimbledon triumph this year? Or can Elena Rybakina defend her 2022 crown? Damien Kayat analyses this season's contenders.
2023 WTA Tour
Grand Slam Tennis
Wimbledon Tennis Championships
All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club (Outdoor Grass)
3rd-16th July
There are few sporting events that capture nostalgia with the same immediacy as Wimbledon. The Masters- with its faint air of pretension and that elevator music- comes close. The FIFA World Cup certainly does elicit some iconic memories. But they are largely jumbled due to the fact that you have to wait four whole years to enjoy one. There’s just something about the fact that the entire sporting world fixates on grass-court tennis for these two weeks of the year.
And let’s be real, only the keenest tennis aficionados (and punters) are taking any notice of the preliminary grass-court events. There is almost a niche quality to one of the biggest sporting events in the world. And this year’s women’s championships looks like a classic in the making.
World Number One Iga Swiatek enhanced her greatness with a 4th Major title at Roland Garros. But her grass-court travails are the stuff of legend and this could open the door for numerous would-be champions. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have both picked up crucial victories over the Pole this year.
It could be argued that they both hold a psychological edge over Swiatek coming into this tournament. There has been some talk of a new ‘Big Three’ in women’s tennis (Swiatek, Sabalenka and Rybakina have won the last five Slams). But I think it’s slightly preemptive to throw those types of labels around. Wimbledon is an idiosyncratic event that opens itself up for newbies and veterans alike. I’m probably going to focus on a combination of current form and grass-court history to guide my decisions.
Over the generations, we've witnessed iconic rivalries, triumphant feats and heroic defeats.
— Wimbledon (@Wimbledon) June 12, 2023
But while the names may change, the drama remains.
New storylines await us, and #Wimbledon will once again be Always Like Never Before ✨
Past Winners
2022: Elena Rybakina bt Ons Jabeur (3-6, 6-2, 6-2)
2021: Ashleigh Barty bt Karolina Pliskova (6-3, 6-7, 6-3)
2020: no event due to Covid
2019: Simona Halep bt Serena Williams (6-2, 6-2)
2018: Angelique Kerber bt Serena Williams (6-3, 6-3)
2017: Garbine Muguruza bt Venus Williams (7-5, 6-0)
Grass-court precursors this year
Rosmalen Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova bt Veronika Kudermetova (4-6, 6-4, 7-6)
Nottingham Open: Katie Boulter bt Jodie Burrage (6-3, 6-3)
German Open: Petra Kvitova by Donna Vekic (6-2, 7-6)
Birmingham Classic: Jelena Ostapenko bt Barbora Krejcikova (7-6, 6-4)
Eastbourne International and Bad Homburg Open: in progress
🏆 Champion in Berlin 🏆@Petra_Kvitova defeats Vekic 6-2. 7-6(6) for her 31st career title! #bett1open pic.twitter.com/g0rkeyTYMC
— wta (@WTA) June 25, 2023
The ‘Big Three’- Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina
Iga Świątek
Swiatek should theoretically be confident of playing on any surface. She is the reigning French and US Open champion, winning her 4th Major title at Roland Garros.But Iga Swiatek’s relationship with grass-court tennis is a complex one. She has a fairly humdrum 8-5 on grass in her whole career. And that tells you two things.
Firstly, she has a far inferior record on grass than other surfaces (she has never gone beyond the 4th round at Wimbledon). Secondly, she doesn’t get to play much grass-court tennis. Nobody does. The grass-court tennis season is so constricted that players don’t really get the chance to acclimatize to it. And Swiatek’s chances of getting to grips with grass are hindered by the fact that she tends to win the French Open.
This gives her less time to make the necessary adjustments for this transition. I still think this tournament will be a step beyond her this year.
Aryna Sabalenka
The current queen of grunt, Aryna Sabalenka had to miss last year’s tournament due to the ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes. That stance has softened and I think Sabalenka has a fantastic chance of winning this year’s title. She has been a machine this year, winning four titles including her maiden Grand Slam at the Aussie Open.
She beat Swiatek on clay and suffered a nail-biting semi-final defeat to Muchova at the French Open. Sure, she lost to Kudermetova in Berlin. But she has more than enough grass-court pedigree to look past that. She lost in the Eastbourne final in 2018 and also finished runner-up at last year’s Rosmalen event.
She also reached her maiden Grand Slam quarterfinal and semi-final at the 2021 Wimbledon Championships. She beat both Rybakina and Jabeur in straight sets, eventually going down to Pliskova in three. Her serve has improved markedly since then and I think she could be hard to stop this year.
Elena Rybakina
Two weeks ago, I probably would have had Elena Rybakina inked in as my pre-tournament favourite. The defending champion has turned into an absolute killer in big matches, wielding arguably the biggest serve in the business and overwhelming opponents. She proved her victory here was no fluke by reaching the final of this year’s Aussie Open.
And she thrashed Swiatek and beat Sabalenka en route to the Indian Wells title. She then reached the Miami Open final to complete a brilliant ‘Sunshine Double’. She also won her 2nd WTA 1000 title on the red clay in Rome, cementing her status as an all-court dynamo. But a recent virus may prevent her from making the most of her Wimbledon defence. She was forced to withdraw ahead of her 3rd round French Open clash (which let’s you know how serious it was).
She didn’t look great at last week’s German Open, going down to the admittedly impressive Donna Vekic in the 2nd round. And she just withdrew from Eastbourne, citing the lingering effects of the virus. I’m hoping that these are precautionary measures ahead of SW19. But I just think the omens don’t look good for the Kazakh star.
Notching her 8th career win on grass on Tour 🌱@iga_swiatek moves past Teichmann in straight sets!#BadHomburgOpen pic.twitter.com/NtivSzYC0K
— wta (@WTA) June 28, 2023
My Top Ten Contenders- Ons Jabeur and Petra Kvitova
There are a few players I’m quite comfortable with omitting from the current top 10. The industrious Jessica Pegula- like Andrey Rublev- can’t seem to progress beyond the quarterfinal stage of a Slam (she has lost all five of her Grand Slam quarters). Maria Sakkari simply isn’t consistent enough while Coco Gauff is still adjusting to a new coaching relationship. Gauff also tends to play her worst tennis in crunch matches.
Carolina Garcia is an interesting one. She has plenty of grass-court nous, winning titles in Mallorca, Nottingham and Bad Homburg. But she looks a far cry from the player who won last year’s WTA Finals. Barbora Krejcikova came within a whisker of making my top two here. The 2021 French Open champ recently reached the final of the Birmingham Classic. But Wimbledon is the only Slam in which she hasn’t reached the quarters and she generally struggles with consistency.
Ons Jabeur
My first choice from the rest from the top ten has to be Ons Jabeur. The Tunisian history maker shook the world last year by reaching back-to-back Grand Slam finals at Wimbledon and the US Open. And that Wimbledon run was hardly her sole success on grass. She actually won her maiden WTA title at the 2021 Birmingham Classic. She also won last year’s German Open.
She had to negotiate minor knee surgery earlier this season and she has been working her way back to full fitness. But victory in the Charleston Open was followed by a highly creditable quarterfinal run in the French Open. Sure, she suffered a surprise defeat to in Berlin and she just bowed out early in Eastbourne.
But she has proven her Grand Slam pedigree and I think she will be operating at full capacity when Wimbledon starts. Her variety and ability to exploit the low bounce of these courts is a joy to watch. This isn’t exactly the most original choice.
Petra Kvitova
Petra Kvitova is probably going to be everyone’s dark-horse choice this week. But you just can’t ignore this grass-court queen. Outside of the Williams sisters, Kvitova is the only woman to win multiple titles here since Steffi Graf. Sure, she hasn’t gone beyond the 4th round here since her 2014 triumph.
But her form this year is just impossible to ignore. She came from virtually nowhere to win the Miami Open and she just won the 6th grass-court title of her career in Berlin. Her pinpoint serve seems to be operating fluidly and I can see her making a deep run this year.
The Mid-tier Choices- Jelena Ostapenko and Donna Vekic
Jelena Ostapenko
I am a real glutton for punishment when it comes to likeable Latvian Jelena Ostapenko. The 2017 French Open champion has notoriously ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ form that makes her a nightmare to back. But are actually a few reasons to back Ostapenko this year. She has a see-ball, hit-ball approach that perfectly suits grass-court tennis. She reached the semi-final of this grand tournament in 2018. She won the Eastbourne Invitational in 2021 and finished runner-up the season after.
She just won her 6th career title in Birmingham, taking down Barbora Krejcikova in the final. She flaunted her Grand Slam chops once again with an excellent run to this year’s Aussie Open quarterfinals. She is approaching something resembling consistency and I think she will be dangerous on these fast surfaces. She has the ability- like Swiatek- to take the game away from you when it’s barely begun.
Donna Vekic
27-year-old Croatian Donna Vekic is one of the great underachievers on the tour. Blessed with a big serve and powerful groundstrokes, the Croatian as often been accused of prioritizing off-court concerns. But she has recently broken back into the top 20 in the world rankings courtesy of some consistent performances. She reached her 2nd Grand Slam quarterfinal at this year’s Aussie Open. And she is fresh off an excellent run to the final of the Grass Court Championships in Berlin.
In fact, Vekic is one of the more accomplished grass-court players out there. She has now reached four grass-court finals (winning the 2017 Nottingham Open title). She has reached the 4th round here before and she could be a threat to anyone in this draw.
Longshot Options- Madison Keys and Paula Badosa
Madison Keys
I’m opting for the Grand Slam nous of Madison Keys for my first longshot option. This is a woman with eight Grand Slam quarterfinals to her name. Of those, four were semi-final runs and she has that one runner-up finish at the 2017 US Open.
She clearly knows how to negotiate the vagaries of a Grand Slam tournament. She reached the quarterfinals of this tournament in 2015 and made the 4th round when she last appeared in 2021. She has threatened to win big this year but has generally tripped up around the quarterfinal stage (she is actually currently scheduled to play in the Eastbourne quarterfinals tomorrow). And that is a continuation of a grass-court pedigree that already includes Eastbourne and Birmingham titles.
Paula Badosa
Paula Badosa and new beau Stefanos Tsitsipas have been piling on the cringe with all their recent social media posts. But I still think she is a dangerous opponent this week (despite the fact that she may be unseeded). She was World No.2 as recently as April last year.
The former Indian Wells champion has suffered a series of debilitating injuries this year, forcing her to miss both the Aussie and French Opens. But she has resumed training this week and I can see her making her return at SW19. She has reached the 4th round in her last two visits here and she certainly has the game to succeed.
She picks up plenty of cheap points with her first-serve and she can use that wonderful sliced backhand to kill the ball.
