The Atlanta Open continues this week as Frances Tiafoe faces Aslan Karatsev as Mackenzie McDonald goes up against Yoshihito Nishioka. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – ATP 250
Atlanta Open
Atlantic Station
Selected Ro16 matches – 25 July
Frances Tiafoe 39/100 | Aslan Karatsev 19/10
Current World No.29 Frances Tiafoe has really struggled this season, coming into this event with a humdrum 15-15 record for the year. That record is all the more awful when you consider that he reached a final in Houston.
The 2022 US Open semifinalist just hasn’t looked himself this year, controversially stating that he has lost to some ‘clowns’ this season. I think Tiafoe can become a bit one-dimensional and he doesn’t really have a Plan B if that forehand goes quiet.
However, he will feel emboldened after nearly downing tennis wunderkind Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon. The American traded blows with the Spaniard in a five-set epic that reminded the world of Tiafoe’s prodigious talent.
He has actually snubbed a US Olympic spot this year, deciding to rather focus on his preparations for the US Open. I think that is actually the right decision. He really struggled during the European clay-court swing and I don’t think there was much point in him travelling to Paris.
Tiafoe may have struggled this year but Russian Aslan Karatsev has endured a nightmare campaign. The Russian came out of nowhere to reach the 2021 Aussie Open semifinals and his consistency saw him reach a career-high ranking of 14 in 2022.
But controversy came knocking at the end of 2022, as Karatasev was implicated in match-fixing allegations and his form suffered as a consequence.
He has the ability to suddenly burst into life during random events, reaching the Madrid Open semifinals and the Japan Open final last season. But this season has been a train wreck, as injury and poor form saw him enter these championships with only one main draw win all season.
But Karatsev was absolutely amazing in his opening match against Billy Harris, hitting 20 winners and committing just three unforced errors in a performance that harkened back to prime Karatsev.
At his best, Karatsev is an aggressive shot-maker who really thrives on faster surfaces.
The Verdict: Karatsev to win in three sets 5/1
Tiafoe leads Karatsev 2-1 in their head-to-head rivalry. Having said that, Karatsev won their previous meeting in Tokyo last year. I really think that Karatsev could pull off an upset here.
He is an extremely talented player who has just been plagued by injury issues (he was one of the victims of the slippery surfaces at Wimbledon). He was utterly dominant in his opening win and I think he could surprise Tiafoe (who can underestimate lesser opponents).
Mackenzie McDonald 13/20 | Yoshihito Nishioka 12/10
29-year-old Mackenzie McDonald has really struggled to follow up on his breakthrough 2023 campaign. The American journeyman started last season in pretty incredible fashion, beating (an admittedly injured) Rafa Nadal in the 2nd round of the Aussie Open.
He would then produce a series of solid results, reaching the semifinals of the Delray Beach event before a quarterfinal run in Mexico.
He then reached a maiden Masters 1000 quarterfinal in Toronto (upsetting Andrey Rublev along the way). But McDonald has regressed this season, coming into this event with a dismal 5-13 record for the year. Having said that, a quarterfinal run in last week’s Newport event hinted at some real improvement.
And he seems to have transferred some of that positive juju into his Atlanta campaign, comfortably beating an in-form Brandon Nakashima in straight sets.
These surfaces really suit his flat-hitting style and this week could prove to be a massive confidence booster for him.
Let’s go from one journeyman to another. Ok, maybe it’s slightly harsh to call 28-year-old Yoshihito Nishioka a journeyman. The Japanese hardcourt specialist has never broken into the top 20 in the world but he has managed to reach five ATP Tour finals throughout his career (including a runner-up finish at the ATP 500 event in Washington).
But the durable baseliner has underwhelmed this season, bringing a lacklustre 8-2 record into this event. But he was quite impressive in his opener, crushing nine aces and winning 80% of his first-serve points in a straight-sets win over American Zachary Svajda.
The Verdict: Nishioka to win in straight sets 26/10
This has actually been a really competitive rivalry, with Nishioka currently owning a 4-2 head-to-head advantage over the American. Having said that, McDonald did win their previous meeting in Delray Beach last season.
I just think that Nishioka’s head-to-head superiority could come to the fore in this match. I also can’t look past his mega-serving performance against Svadja. Crushing nine aces in your first match speaks to someone who feels completely comfortable on these surfaces.
