The ATP Tour’s Indian Wells Masters moves into the round of 64 with Andrey Rublev taking on Andy Murray and Jannik Sinner facing Thanasi Kokkinakis. Damien Kayat previews.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden
Selected Ro64 Matches – 8 March
Andrey Rublev 2/11 | Andy Murray 36/10
Russian Andrey Rublev has certainly enjoyed an interesting week. He was disqualified in the midst of a titanic Dubai semi-final with Alexander Bublik, adjudged to have sworn in the face of a line-judge in pretty insane scenes.
Rublev vehemently protested his innocence and a subsequent appeal saw his ranking points and prizemoney reinstated. Grand Slam disappointments aside, the Russian is fresh off one of the most successful seasons of his entire career.
He reached six finals last year, winning a Masters 1000 title in Monte-Carlo and reached another Masters final in Shanghai. He opened this year in similarly dismissive fashion, winning the 15th title of his career at the Hong Kong Open. But he hasn’t been quite the same following a heartbreaking 10th Grand Slam quarter-final defeat at the Aussie Open.
Rublev reached the semi-finals here back in 2022 but he has generally struggled with the absurdly slow conditions. He likes to hit the ball flat and this arena doesn’t really give purchase for his groundstrokes.
Wow, that was the most impressive I have seen Andy Murray play in ages. He decimated former top-ten player David Goffin in his opening match, winning 85% of his first-serve points without facing a single break point in the match.
It was the type of ruthless serving display that characterized the Scot at the peak of his powers. It was part of an encouraging recent run for Murray. He was 0-4 in the early part of the season and I really thought we might see a shock early-season retirement from the surly Scot.
But he has won his last three first-round matches and he will be relishing this chance to take down one of the elite hardcourt players of this current generation. Murray has reached the quarter-final stage of this event five times, finishing runner-up here way back in 2009.
Verdict: Rublev to win in three sets 26/10
These two currently share the head-to-head spoils 1-1. Murray thrashed a young Rublev at the 2017 Aussie Open but Rublev soundly took down Murray when they last met at the 2021 Rotterdam Open. This could be a tight one, with the slower conditions allowing Murray to introduce his famed variety. I’m sure the Scot will throw in plenty of cheeky drop-shots and this one could go all the way. However, I just think Rublev’s superior physicality will get him over the edge in this one.
Jannik Sinner 1/14 | Thanasi Kokkinakis 7/1
What a time it is to be Jannik Sinner. The 21-year-old Italian is riding the crest of a wave that has seen him rise to a career-high ranking of No.3 in the world.
He has remarkably gone 32-2 since the start of last year’s China Open. His victories at the Aussie and Rotterdam Opens have helped extend his current winning streak to 15 matches (he helped steer Italy to the Davis Cup title towards the end of last year).
Crucially, Sinner has now beaten Djokovic three times in their last four encounters. His straight-sets win over the Serb at the Aussie Open really underlined his current dominance of the men’s game. In fact, it was the first time that the Serb had failed to generate a break point on his opponent’s serve in a completed Grand Slam match.
Sinner fell to an in-from Alcaraz when they met in the semi-finals here last year. But now Sinner is the form dog and he will be relishing this chance to further extend his winning momentum.
Well, I think it’s fair to say that this is going to be an uphill task for enigmatic 27-year-old Thanasi Kokkinakis. The big-serving Aussie hasn’t reached an ATP final since winning in Adelaide in 2022. He has almost certainly underdelivered considering his talent but there have been a few encouraging signs for him in recent weeks.
He beat the British pair of Dan Evans and Jack Draper en route to the Los Cabos Open quarter-finals. He was forced to withdraw from Acapulco due to injury but he is fresh off a very solid first-round win against Marcos Giron.
His megawatt serve was in brilliant working order against the American as he won a staggering 86% of his first-serve points. He hit a total of 20 winners in the match in one of his most complete performances in ages. Can that massive delivery cause the Italian superstar any problems this week?
Verdict: Sinner to win in straight sets 29/100
Sinner leads the head-to-head 3-0, beating the Aussie comfortably in their most recent meeting at last year’s Italian Open. I really wish I could think of something clever to say here.
But I just can’t see Kokkinakis existing in the same universe as Sinner. The slow surfaces will mitigate some of the Aussie’s power and Sinner should dominate this match from start to finish.
