The ATP Tour’s Indian Wells Masters continues this week as we into the business end of the competition. Damien Kayat previews Alex Zverev v Alex de Minaur and Stefanson Tsitsipas v Jiri Lehecka.
2024 ATP Tour – Masters 1000
Indian Wells Masters
Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
Selected Ro16 Matches – 12 March 2024
Alex Zverev 92/100 | Alex de Minaur 86/100
It’s kind of crazy to think that Alex Zverev is still just 26 years of age (it feels like he has been around for over a decade). In any event, the German has battled injury and off-court demons in recent years but he started this season in absolutely scintillating fashion.
He helped guide Germany to a United Cup triumph before a brilliant semi-final run at the Aussie Open. Honestly, I think he was playing the best tennis of all four semi-finalists going into the final stages of Melbourne.
But he somehow conspired to blow a two-set lead to Medvedev and he hasn’t quite looked the same player since. He lost to journeyman Jordan Thopson in Los Cabos before a shock first-round defeat to Altmaier in Acapulco.
He has stabilised this week, picking up decent wins over O’Connell and Griekspoor. But he just doesn’t look completely comfortable on these painstakingly slow surfaces. He has never gone beyond the quarter-final stage in eight previous visits here and next up he faces one of the ATP Tour’s most in-form players: Alex de Minaur.
Outside of Jannik Sinner, 25-year-old Aussie de Minaur is arguably the most in-form player in men’s tennis. The indefatigable baseliner enjoyed a fantastic 2023 campaign, claiming a maiden ATP 500 title in Acapulco before reaching a first ATP 1000 final in Toronto.
He also helped Australia win the Davis Cup through his individual heroics. And he has brought that solid form directly into 2024, beating Djokovic at the United Cup before an exhibition win against Alcaraz. He went out in the fourth round of the Aussie Open before going down to Sinner in the Rotterdam final.
He shook off an ignominious early Los Cabos exit by defending his Acapulco crown. And he has looked ruthless in the California desert, overcoming Daniel and Bublik in convincing straight-sets triumphs. He reeled off the last eight consecutive games against Bublik to extend his current winning streak to seven matches.
In the process, de Minaur matched his fourth-round runs in the 2021 and 2022 editions of this event. His pure athleticism makes it hard for his opponents to hit clean winners on such slow, sticky surfaces.
Verdict: De Minaur to win in straight sets 2/1
Zverev has a dominant 6-2 head-to-head superiority over the Aussie. But form dictates that I side with the ‘Speed Demon’ here. Also, these courts are far too slow for Zverev to get the best out of his power-based game. The Aussie will chase down everything and his superior physical conditioning should see him over the line. Also, the Aussie did beat the German when they met at this year’s United Cup.
Stefanos Tsitsipas 48/100 | Jiri Lehecka 16/10
It has really been a case of ‘so close but so far’ for Tsitsipas this season. I think it’s fair to say that his performance dipped last year as his relationship with Paula Badosa blossomed (and vice versa). Some have hinted that he may be slightly too distracted to compete with the likes of Alcaraz and Sinner.
But he really looks desperate to dispel that notion and has played some solid- if unspectacular- tennis this season. He went out to Taylor Fitz in the fourth round of the Aussie Open before a steady semi-final run in Los Cabos.
He ran into an inspired de Minaur in Acapulco and he has started his Indian Wells journey with solid victories over Pouille and Tiafoe. That brilliant win over Tiafoe took his 2024 record to a sturdy 9-3.
I was somewhat surprised to discover that this is only the second time that the Greek has gone past the third round here. He is a magnificent clay-court player and these slow conditions sometimes plays more like clay than traditional hardcourts.
Clean-hitting Czech Jiri Lehecka has really been one of the under-the-radar breakout stars of the last 18 months or so. He reached the quarter-final of last year’s Aussie Open and backed that up with a fourth-round finish at Wimbledon.
He reached a maiden ATP final in Winston-Salem and he seems to have just transferred that form directly into 2024. He won a maiden ATP title in Adelaide but he went a little quiet after that. He was forced to withdraw from the Dubai quarters and nobody was really speaking much about Lehecka coming into the ‘Sunshine Double’.
And he struggled to overcome the doughty Nakashima in his opener. But he just blew the lid off the tournament, picking up the biggest scalp of his career with a straight-sets win over Andrey Rublev. He is a wonderfully hard hitter who has the power to penetrate these laborious surfaces.
Verdict: Lehecka to win in three sets 26/10
Tsitsipas has won both of their previous meetings. But Lehecka looks like a different beast this week. This will be his maiden Masters 1000 4th round match and I think he is going to pose plenty of issues for the Greek. The power and consistency of his striking reminds me of Alcaraz and Tsitsipas could struggle here.
